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Pickin' on the Big Ten: The Rich Rodriguez Spread Dilemma

Mark Hasty — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 16:30:00 EST

Filed under: Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, Wisconsin

Every Thursday, Pickin' on the Big Ten previews the upcoming weekend's games and ponders the meaning of it all, staring into the yawning existential void and calling a fullback dive on third-and-seven.

With one more loss, Michigan will become ineligible for a bowl game for the second season in a row. This has not happened since W.A. "Brad" Thornwhistle's disastrous first two seasons in 1847 and 1848. To avoid this horrible dishonor, all the Wolverines have to do is to beat Ohio State on Saturday. That will keep them alive for the Little Caesar's Pizza! Pizza! Bowl Bowl.

In other words, Michigan fans will be home for the holidays again.

Watching Michigan struggle is the very definition of "schadenfreude" for fans of all the other Big Ten teams. There's a reason I stuck the Wolverines with the team name "ALMOST AS GOOD AS WE THINK WE ARE" when I started writing Pickin' 11 seasons ago. The Wolverines were just coming off Lloyd Carr's national championship season. The Buckeyes were nearing the tail end of their John Cooper hangover. Wolverine fans never missed a chance to brag up their own team and run down everybody else's.

(Now do you understand why I threw your team under the bus last week, Buckeye fans?)

The current malaise at Michigan is nothing more than the latest example of that ancient statistical concept "regression to the mean." Everything averages out in the long run, and every program, without exception, no matter how big it thinks it is, hits a stretch of futility or near-futility. If Oklahoma, Alabama, Nebraska, USC, Texas, and even Ohio State have had to endure these little seasick stretches, there's no reason why the same fate can't befall the Wolverines.

"But ... but ... we're Michigan!" the fans protest. Yes, and you're almost as good as you think you are.

The dilemma for the Big Ten fan is fairly intense, however. It's great to see Michigan finally getting their comeuppance, but Rich Rodriguez was supposed to bring change to the conference. With his use of the spread offense and the inherent recruiting advantages that Michigan offers, there was a chance that the years of "three yards and a cloud of dust" would finally pass and Big Ten football could be brought at least into the mid-1990s.

It isn't working out that well, of course. Instead we've got Tressel-ball continuing to dominate, with Kirk Ferentz's Midwestern version of Beamerball running close behind. The irony is that Michigan is leading the league in rushing and scoring, though those statistics are severely skewed by their first four games.

Even nationally, it's been a bad year for the spread. Look at Kansas. KansasCity.com did and found that KU's spread offense wasn't helping them very much, while Nebraska and Kansas State have risen to the top of the Big 12 North behind the sort of power running that was supposed to be obsolete. Georgia Tech's Paul Johnson is going to win the ACC with the triple option. What happened to this magic-bullet offense, this mystical Big Ten kryptonite?

Defensive coordinators fell out of love with the West Coast-killing Cover 2 and rediscovered man coverage. Doesn't matter how much you spread the field if nobody's open.

So now, for the non-Michigan big Ten fan, the issue becomes whether you want Rodriguez to succeed or not. There's no question the conference isn't the same with Michigan sputtering. Given the conference's reactionary tendencies, though, what happens if Rodriguez wins the conference next year behind a smaller, speedier, sneakier team? Does anybody really want to see a wholesale conversion to the spread just as it looks like that offensive scheme is starting its downward slide?

I don't. I just want to see coaches who actually want to win ball games and are willing to risk (gasp!) making a mistake or two in order to win. Not that I'm bitter about the last two minutes of last week's OSU/Iowa game or anything.

Right. The games.

Purdue @ Indiana

There's nothing at stake here except pride. Neither team is going to a bowl game. That's a shame, as both these teams are better than their 4-7 records would indicate.

IU's conversion to the pistol offense didn't exactly work out the way it was supposed to. The fact that the Hoosiers got a running game going at all is impressive, but they're stuck in between Iowa and Minnesota at the very bottom of the conference rushing stats. The inability to kill the clock has burned IU more than once this season and has certainly contributed to their icky-looking defensive numbers.

Purdue, meanwhile, has come a long way from the their solid month of losing. The shutout by Wisconsin was an unfortunate burp, but otherwise this team doesn't lack fight.

Expect lots of passing in this game; it's what both teams do best. in the end I think Purdue's slightly better offensive balance will make the difference. Purdue 38, Indiana 27.

Minnesota @ Iowa

Last season the Hawkeyes closed the Gophers' Metrodome era in style with a 55-0 pants-blasting blitzkrieg. There is little reason to expect a wildly different result this year. James Vandenberg acquitted himself fairly well at Ohio Stadium last week, not folding up in the ultimate high-stress situation. This week at home, against a team with no offense and not much defense, and with another week to prepare, he should do just as well. Iowa 34, Minnesota 10.

Ohio State @ Michigan

Remember when this game used to mean something?

Let's face it, right now Michigan football is sort of like a Neil Hamburger standup routine. The timing's all wrong, stuff is flying all over the place, and you're really not sure how much of it you're supposed to be laughing at.

Ohio State, on the other hand, is sort of like a Jay Leno monologue. There's not a joke you can't finish before Leno himself does, but what do you know, he's always on. Ohio State 42, Michigan 13.

Penn State @ Michigan State

Now here's an intriguing game for you. Following the Iowa loss and a bad loss at Minnesota, it appears the Spartans are peaking at just the right time to make this match more of a tossup than you might expect.

The Nits have been money in their road games this season. All three of them. Yet Joe Paterno seems concerned. He knows that MSU takes this whole Land Grant Trophy thing very seriously, the Spartans are playing very well, and MSU's offense is hitting its stride after a half-season of confusion. I think the Nits are just a little too stout to lose this game, but Michigan State is going to push them much harder than they want to be pushed. Penn State 28, Michigan State 24.

Wisconsin @ Northwestern

They're fighting for the honor of Mike Hankwitz!

OK, OK, I kid, I kid. They're fighting for something, however. Northwestern recalls slipping way down to the Alamo Bowl last season because they couldn't seal the deal down the stretch (and because the Outback Bowl really wanted Iowa). Wisconsin would like to give Bret Bielema another 10-win season, which should shut the critics up for a couple years.

The Badgers have been shooting out the lights since their back-to-back losses to Ohio State and Iowa back in October. The untold story, however, is the power of the Badger defense, which has yet to surrender its 1,000th rushing yard and has given up fewer first downs than any other Big Ten defense.

That looms as a huge problem for a one-dimensional offense like Northwestern's. The Wildcats have never been able to make anything happen on the ground this season. With the weather looking cool and damp for Saturday, and Wisconsin coming to town, this probably isn't the weekend for them to start. Wisconsin 33, Northwestern 20.

Next week's ... um ... game:

Illinois @ Cincinnati: Look away. Look far away.

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University of Cincinnati Quarterback Zach Collaros appears before Judge Bernie Bouchard in Hamilton County Municipal Court, Thursday, Nov. 19, 2009 in Cincinnati. The judge has warned Collaros that he could spend the bowl season in jail for failing to begin a court-ordered program on underage drinking. (AP Photo/The Enquirer, Malinda Hartong)

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In this photo taken on Dec. 2, 2007, Bo Pelini, left, is is directed to the podium by Nebraska athletic director Tom Osborne, right, as Pelini is introduced as the school's new head football coach during a news conference in Lincoln, Neb. Though Osborne downplays his influence, Pelini welcomes any and all advice from his athletic director, who happens to be a Hall-of-Fame coach. (AP Photo/Nati Harnik)

In this photo taken on Nov. 7, 2009, Notre Dame quarterback Jimmy Clausen waits for the snap from center Eric Olsen (55) during the second quarter of an NCAA college football game in South Bend, Ind. Olsen didn't arrive at Notre Dame with much fanfare, but he has been the steadying force on an offensive line that's had its ups and downs this season. (AP Photo/Darron Cummings)

In this photo taken on Nov. 7, 2009, Notre Dame quarterback Jimmy Clausen, left, talks with center Eric Olsen during the fourth quarter of an NCAA college football game in South Bend, Ind. Olsen didn't arrive at Notre Dame with much fanfare, but he has been the steadying force on an offensive line that's had its ups and downs this season. (AP Photo/Darron Cummings)

Kelly Adams wipes a tear during a Bonfire Remembrance Ceremony Tuesday, Nov. 17, 2009 in College Station, Texas. Adams' sister-in-law, Miranda Adams, was one of twelve A&M students who died when the bonfire, traditionally burned on the eve of their NCAA college football game against Texas, collapsed during construction Nov. 18, 1999. (AP Photo/Dave Einsel)

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Will Hurd, left, and Brent Lanier, right, join the crowd in a standing ovation for Richard West, center, after he addressed a Bonfire Remembrance Ceremony Tuesday, Nov. 17, 2009 in College Station, Texas. West's son, Nathan, was one of twelve A&M students who died when the bonfire, traditionally burned on the eve of their NCAA college football game against Texas, collapsed during construction Nov. 18, 1999. (AP Photo/Dave Einsel)

Texas A&M former student Kenny Williamson, left, and Heather Morris, right, pause at a marker for Timothy Kerlee, Jr. at the Texas A&M Bonfire Memorial Tuesday, Nov. 17, 2009 in College Station. Kerlee, a classmate of Williamson, was one of twelve A&M students who died when the Bonfire, traditionally burned on the eve of their NCAA college football game against Texas, collapsed during construction Nov. 18, 1999. (AP Photo/Dave Einsel)

Pickin' on the Big Ten: The Rich Rodriguez Spread Dilemma originally appeared on NCAA Football FanHouse on Thu, 19 Nov 2009 16:30:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Big Ten Notebook: Ohio State Spiffs Up

Mark Hasty — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 23:03:00 EST

Filed under: Iowa, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Ohio State, Penn State, Wisconsin

Below, former Buckeye Raymont Harris models the uniforms Ohio State will wear this weekend.

Your eyes don't deceive you. Raymont Harris still exists, and he's modeling the new throwback uniforms the Buckeyes will be wearing for this weekend's game at Michigan. This is where all you coastal and Southern types wonder aloud how anybody can tell if a Big Ten team is wearing a throwback uniform.

Of course, Columbus is the headquarters of Abercrombie and Fitch, Victoria's Secret, The Limited, and a few other fashion-type retailers. You'd expect some swanky threads on the Buckeyes sooner or later. But what else is going on in less fashionable parts of the conference?

We'll start with the places where not much will be happening after this weekend. Illinois, Indiana and Purdue have all been eliminated from the post-season. Enjoy the basketball. Michigan will be eliminated if they lose to Ohio State this weekend so, um, enjoy the basketball.

Iowa quarterback Ricky Stanzi is expected to miss this Saturday's game with Minnesota. James Vandenberg will get his second start, and his first start at Kinnick Stadium. When asked for a comment, Trey Stross' hands said "Owie!"

Michigan State is bowl-eligible for the third straight season. This is only the third such stretch in school history. Nick Saban was the last coach to accomplish this feat, so look for Mark Dantonio to be connected to the next SEC opening.

Speaking of streaks, Northwestern's streak of two consecutive bowl-eligible seasons is just the second such streak in school history. The school has never had a three-year bowl streak, which both Stanford and Notre Dame can claim. Don't worry, Pat Fitzgerald; you'll always have Vanderbilt.

Also speaking of streaks, the conference's longest current winning streak belongs to Wisconsin, at three consecutive victories.

Minnesota's squeaker win over South Dakota State continues a recent trend of the Gophers underperforming against FCS opponents. Since 2006 the Gophers are 3-1 against lower division opponents but have only outscored them by 10 points, 82-72.

Big Ten Notebook: Ohio State Spiffs Up originally appeared on NCAA Football FanHouse on Wed, 18 Nov 2009 23:03:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Pickin' on the Big Ten: Coping With Buckeye Fatigue Syndrome

Mark Hasty — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 16:30:00 EST

Filed under: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, Wisconsin

Every Thursday, Pickin' on the Big Ten previews the upcoming weekend's games and issues random taunts to overconfident fan bases.

Be careful what you ask for, college football fan. The very same Iowa team that so many of you desperately wanted to see lose lest the Big Ten get another team into the title game is now the only thing standing between Ohio State and the BCS. If the Hawkeyes can't pull off a ginormous upset in Columbus behind a quarterback making his first college start, you're going to get the Scarlet and Grey facing some honked-off Pac 10 team.

You might be new to that dreadful condition known as Buckeye Fatigue Syndrome, but I've been observing it for years. It's a chronic condition caused by a malfunction of Ohio State football. Symptoms of BFS include the belief that a team which spends almost all of its time in the top 10 is underrated, an inability to let even the slightest perceived sleight go unanswered with a pile of history and statistics, and the uncontrollable urge to sit on a seven-point lead with eight minutes left in the second quarter.

There is no known cure. There's an experimental treatment which involves a team from a state whose entire population is only slightly greater than that of metropolitan Cleveland, but it is unproven and many experts doubt its efficacy. Some of the symptoms can be managed through simple procedures such as diet, exercise, turning the channel, taking up oil painting, and writing the phrase "Ohio State: the Atlanta Braves of college football" repeatedly on a piece of notebook paper.

(Note to Buckeye fans: This is just a hint of what awaits you if you go to the Rose Bowl and once again stink it up. Your team and its complete inability to win a big game outside the conference has made success in the Big Ten a meaningless accomplishment. The whole conference has suffered as a result. If you make it to the BCS and lay an egg, I promise you every edition of Pickin' on the Big Ten next season will include a recap of one of John Cooper's losses to Michigan. When I run out of them, which won't be until very late in the season, I'll start in on the bowl games. I will also run a picture of Coop next to every Ohio State game prediction. I hate doing this, because I actually like John Cooper. But it's for your own good. Win, or next season will be a reminder of how fragile your "elite" status actually is.)

Right. The games.

NORTHWESTERN @ ILLINOIS

You won't find two hotter teams in the conference than these two right now. Sure, O*** S**** (please don't make me type their name any more than I have to) is playing very well right now, but Northwestern just did what no one else has been able to (bump off Iowa) while Illinois is just on fire.

Wow, how low had Illinois sunk if I can call a two-game winning streak "on fire?" But I digress. Juice Williams is questionable for the Illini, but the offense played pretty well without him last week. NU will probably start Dan Persa at quarterback. The real question in this game, however, will be defense. The Ilini have struggled in that phase of the game all season and weren't exactly brilliant last week, while Northwestern did quite well. It must be noted, however, that NU's success came against an Iowa offense so depleted by injuries they were forced to use a backfield made up of nothing but Iowans.

Illinois will score a lot of points in this game. That's just what they do, at least now that it's November. The question will be whether Northwestern can answer. I think they'll fall just short. They can't get in the Illini's heads like they got in Iowa's. Illinois has already lost its quarterback. Illinois 35, Northwestern 28.

SOUTH DAKOTA STATE @ MINNESOTA

Before you write this off as just another FCS money game, you should be aware of two things. First, South Dakota State is actually pretty good, especially when you consider they've only been a Division I school for five years. The Jackrabbits opened their season on the road with a beatdown of perennial FCS power Georgia Southern, for instance.

Second, this is Minnesota we're talking about. They have a history of losing these kinds of games, don't you know?

Adam Weber has been playing like a new quarterback now that Eric Decker is out for the season. It's almost like he has to read progressions now or something. That could be a problem, though, because SDSU plays some pretty ferocious defense. They won't quite have enough grunt to pull off the upset, but at least through halftime this game will be too close for comfort for the Gopher faithful. Minnesota 27, SDSU 13.

Know Your Nonconference Tomato Can: South Dakota State University

Agriculture is and always will be a big deal in South Dakota, so it's no surprise that the state's agricultural school happens to be the biggest university in the state. Located five hours west of Minneapolis in the city of Brookings, SDSU now enrolls almost 13,000 students and boasts one of the biggest homecoming celebrations on any college campus anywhere.

You might think SDSU is all play and no work. Think again. SDSU's students and faculty are responsible for a great many innovations. The Briggs & Stratton engine was invented by an SDSU alumnus. The university claims to be the birthplace of cookies and cream ice cream. Virtually every major stadium in this country has a Daktronics scoreboard. That company was started by two SDSU professors.

SDSU has a strong history in football as well. Indianapolis Colts placekicker Adam Vinatieri is a former Jackrabbit football player, as are journeyman NFL offensive lineman Adam Timmerman and Pro Football Hall of Famer Jim Langer. Go ahead, call SDSU "the middle of nowhere." They can prove you wrong.

IOWA @ OHIO STATE

Ohio State's going to win this game 66-0. A Buckeye fan told me so. So, there you go. Ohio State 66, Iowa 0.

INDIANA @ PENN STATE

The Hoosiers have never beaten Penn State. This is probably not the week they'll change that. Since Indiana isn't Ohio State or Iowa, Penn State will use all of its offensive playbook instead of just the first three pages. That should make a long afternoon for IU.

Then again, PSU's two losses have shown that their offensive line is not up to their usual standards and can be pushed around quite a bit. Indiana has the best pass rush in the Big Ten right now. The Hoosiers never seem to give up either. Put this game in with the Minnesota game under the category of "closer than the home team thought it was going to be." Expect a very similar result, however. Penn State 31, Indiana 27.

MICHIGAN STATE @ PURDUE

Both these teams play with intensity, and there's a lot riding on this game. If Purdue loses they're out of the bowl hunt. If MSU loses they'll have to beat Penn State just to have a shot at a bowl game. You can reasonably expect both these teams to give it everything they've got. This should be the most entertaining Big Ten game this weekend.

The question right now is who has more in the tank. Purdue is on a hot streak, having won three of their last four games. MSU has struggled down the stretch but got a much-needed breather against Western Michigan last week. Matchups like these usually favor the better defense. MSU has playmakers in its secondary. Purdue can't win without throwing the ball well. Advantage: Sparty. Michigan State 34, Purdue 30.

MICHIGAN @ WISCONSIN

Two teams, two philosophies, two different directions. Michigan could not seem more out of sorts right now. Apart from punting, it's hard to think of one thing they're doing well. The Wolverines are still a threat to move the ball and score points, but there's a good reason you don't hear Tate Forcier's name as much as you did just a month ago.

Wisconsin, meanwhile, is riding its traditional strengths (defense and the running game) while adding the new wrinkle of vertical passing. The Badgers deserved to lose to Iowa but should have beaten Ohio State and they know it. Since that mid-October stumble Bret Bielema's team has reverted to form, running all over their opponents and putting up at least 30 points a game. There is no reason to think they won't do that to Michigan. Wisconsin 41, Michigan 21.

Next week's games:
Purdue @ Indiana: Will either team be playing for a bowl bid?
Minnesota @ Iowa: More at stake here than a bronze pig
Ohio State @ Michigan: "Help us, Obi-Rod. You're our last hope."
Penn State @ Michigan State: MSU win here messes everything up
Wisconsin @ Northwestern: No trophy on the line here

Pickin' on the Big Ten: Coping With Buckeye Fatigue Syndrome originally appeared on NCAA Football FanHouse on Thu, 12 Nov 2009 16:30:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Big Ten Notebook: Buckeyes Back in Control in Title Race

Mark Hasty — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 12:00:00 EST

Filed under: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Big 10

One little loss to Northwestern can change everything. Iowa looked like the team to beat in the Big Ten title race, but now that it has fallen to the Wildcats and Ohio State has beaten Penn State, all the momentum has moved back to Columbus. Technically, both the Hawkeyes and Buckeyes control their own destiny. Whichever team wins Saturday's game is the presumptive conference champion.

Now go try to figure the odds that Iowa can win in the Horseshoe with a redshirt freshman quarterback making his first career start with no run support to speak of.

At any rate, it will be one of those teams that will go to Pasadena. Neither Penn State nor Wisconsin can do anything better than to tie with Ohio State or Iowa. The Nits and the Badgers lost to both those teams, so they'd lose the tiebreaker.

Here's a quick look at what else is going on around the conference.

Illinois has picked a strange time to peak, but then again, all the pressure is off the Illini. With back-to-back wins over Michigan and Minnesota the Illini's bowl hopes are still alive, but barely. They will have to win out to finish 6-6, and that will require beating Fresno State and Cincinnati. If Illinois should win out, then, you could argue that it would be the best 6-6 in the country and possible the best ever.

Indiana travels to Penn State this weekend right after the Nits laid an egg against Ohio State. Joe Paterno's teams usually bounce back hard after a big disappointment, but if IU loses there will be no bowl game for the Hoosiers. It's a shame. Indiana has never beaten Penn State.

Iowa quarterback Ricky Stanzi had surgery on his ankle this week and is out for the last two games of the regular season. He is expected to be available for Iowa's bowl game. James Vandenberg will start in his place. Vandenberg was Iowa's 3A football player of the year in 2007 and holds many of the state's all-division passing records. Vandenberg picked Iowa over Nebraska and Northern Illinois and has probably heard all your Dawson's Creek crackbacks before.

Michigan's retiring athletic director Bill Martin came under fire this week when reports surfaced that he had pushed one student and grabbed the jacket of another during football games at the Big House. Martin refused to show passes to enter VIP areas when the students requested them. This shows just how hard it is for Michigan to get flagged for pass interference at home. It also represents the most contact any Wolverine defender has managed since September.

Michigan State, with 53 underclassmen on the roster, needs the extra practice for a bowl game as much as it needs the bowl game itself. A win at Purdue this Saturday would likely secure at least a bid to the Little Caesar's Pizza Bowl.

Ohio State, believe it or not, has not been to the Rose Bowl in more than a decade.

Wisconsin's former defensive lineman Erasmus James faces felony battery charges for a Nov. 5 incident at a Madison bar in which he punched one of his friends. James was suspended by the NFL in September for undisclosed reasons.

Big Ten Notebook: Buckeyes Back in Control in Title Race originally appeared on NCAA Football FanHouse on Wed, 11 Nov 2009 12:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Daily Domer: Crist Out, Floyd Back

John Walters — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 17:23:00 EST

Filed under: Alabama, Michigan, Michigan State, Nebraska, Notre Dame, Daily Domer

SOUTH BEND, Ind. -- Crist will come again ... in four to six months.

Notre Dame learned the fates of both back-up quarterback Dayne Crist and wide receiver Michael Floyd on Monday and the results were mixed.

Crist, a sophomore who went down in the fourth quarter of Notre Dame's 40-14 win against Washington State, learned on Monday that he had torn the anterior cruciate ligament of his right knee. Floyd, who broke his left collarbone against Michigan State in the season's third game, was cleared to play.

On Tuesday, Notre Dame coach Charlie Weis confirmed that Crist, who had an MRI on Monday, had torn his ACL and that he would have surgery on Friday. Weis said that the Irish staff consulted "the guru in Alabama" (Dr. James Andrews) and that the prognosis was for a four-to-six month rehab. That likely keeps Crist out of spring football.

"I know one thing," Weis said, concerning Crist's return. "We'll be conservative."

As for Floyd, a CAT-scan on Monday convinced doctors that he should be cleared to play. Weis reported that Floyd was "hootin' and hollerin'" (suddenly No. 7 is Slim Pickens in "Blazing Saddles?") at the news and was in no mood to keep it to himself.

"No. 7 [Jimmy Clausen] texted me a few minutes later," Weis reported. "I think No. 7 might have been as happy as No. 3 [Floyd]."

What this all means is that the nation's most potent passing attack outside the state of Texas (take your pick) will be at full strength for the first time since Ann Arbor. You will recall that Floyd started against Michigan State but that he'd just received 15 stitches in his right knee seven days earlier.

And while Clausen himself still has vestigial turf toe troubles, this Irish offense is more lethal than before. That's because Golden Tate has taken his mojo to a previously unrealized plateau in Floyd's absence the past six weeks.

Asked if Tate would have become the rock star that he has in Notre Dame's past five games had Floyd been healthy, Weis replied, "You'd have to lean towards 'No.' "

The facts are these: Floyd caught five touchdown passes in three games for the Irish and at the time Weis was asked if he might be the greatest wideout in school history. And in his absence Tate has become a bona fide first team All-American candidate, even a Heisman candidate (SI.com's Gene Menez lists him at No. 3 this week behind Alabama's Mark Ingram and nose tackle Ndamukong Suh of Nebraska).

With Floyd and Tate on the field together, well, Clausen just became a much better quarterback.
As for JC's back-up and successor, prospects are more opaque. One wonders just how quickly Weis did, or will, put the redshirt freshman in touch with his former pupil, Tom Brady, who suffered a season-ending ACL tear last year. Also, does Crist's injury have any impact on the decision Clausen will make in the coming months about declaring for the NFL Draft? If anything, it adds clarity to the prospect of an entire season being forfeited in one play ... and the prospect of diminishing value in the eyes of NFL scouts.

The headache begins for Charlie Weis. This week he will promote Evan Sharpley, the most gifted passer currently teaching ninth grade geography in America, to second-string. Sharpley, a fifth-year senior, is teaching full-time at local Adams High School as he works toward his teaching certificate. According to Weis, he needs to find a way to skip his final period of the day now in order to be back at the Gug in time for film sessions. Perhaps Crist could substitute teach?

Anyway, Sharpley moves to No. 2 while John Goodman, who played both wideout and quarterback at Bishop Dwenger in Fort Wayne (and who recently said that he considers himself a better quarterback than wideout) will move to third string while still taking most of his reps with the receivers. It was Goodman, after all, who caught a beautifully thrown pass from Crist for a 64-yard touchdown Saturday ... the lone TD pass of Crist's career.

One commenter on an Irish message board suggested that Sharpley start against Navy. What's the worst, asked someone whose memory does not extend more than two years, that could happen?

The problem, obviously, is next year. Does Clausen return? If he does the Irish passing attack will be sick. If he does not Weis will, for the second time in four years, break in a new starter who is both an underclassmen and coming off off-season surgery. Sharpley will be gone. Should Clausen go, the Irish quarterback prospects will be a fragile Crist; a possible prodigal son in Nate Montana (who was on the team in '08 and is currently at Pasadena City College, where he is 31-of-88 with two touchdowns and five interceptions; Clausen's completion percentage, 66.9 percent, is higher than Montana's passer rating, 62.29); and verbal commit Andrew Hendrix, a 6-3, four-star recruit out of Cincinnati Moeller High School.

Weis said that when Floyd was cleared to play yesterday, he told his brilliant sophomore that only two votes went into the decision as to when he would play: his and Floyd's. "And you know which way I'm voting," Weis laughed.

If it were to come down to a similar two-vote decision as to whether Clausen stays or goes (and it won't, but if it were to), Weis might want to replace his favorite band (Bon Jovi) with one of his college contemporaries, Chicago. "If you leave me now ..."

Daily Domer: Crist Out, Floyd Back originally appeared on NCAA Football FanHouse on Tue, 03 Nov 2009 17:23:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Pickin' on the Big Ten: Iowa Isn't Concerned About Your Scorn

Mark Hasty — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 12:00:00 EST

Filed under: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Big 10

Every Thursday, Pickin' on the Big Ten runs down the weekend's games from inside a chicken coop, at least as far as you know.

Cue the inevitable anti-Iowa backlash. A team that barely got by Arkansas State and Northern Iowa is somehow No. 1 in the nation according to the computer polls the BCS uses. Don't like it? Line forms to the left. Kirk Ferentz even agrees with you.

Shouldn't the computers' top ranked team have at least some sort of offense? Yes, of course. But whose fault is that No. 1 ranking?

Yours, you loudmouth.

You, the whiny fan ready to overreact to every perceived slight, are the reason margin of victory no longer counts in the BCS computer polls. But that's another rant for another day.

I get it, though. You're tired of the Big Ten and its maddening ability to sneak into national championship games. You're totally convinced that a one-loss Big 12 team is better than a one-loss Big Ten team. You're beyond convinced that a four-loss SEC team is better than any undefeated Big Ten team. I'm totally convinced that once you get past Florida and Alabama the SEC is the Big 12 North with a better TV contract, but I digress. You don't want Iowa, or any Big Ten champion, to get to the title game.

Have you noticed that the Hawkeyes don't seem to care? Kirk Ferentz isn't lobbying the poll voters like Bob Stoops and Urban Meyer have done in the past. For the most part the Iowa players aren't talking about being disrespected. They just want to take care of business, even if there's a good chance they'll get iced out of the championship if they go undefeated.

This may seem hard to understand to you. Rationality left college football years ago, after all. What you have to realize is that, even though a large portion of their roster comes from out of state, the Hawkeyes have the character of the state of Iowa.

When you're from Iowa, you learn early in life that your home state is going to get ripped on by everybody. You can expect to hear the same stale cracks about corn, pigs, flatness, and winter within about 15 seconds of meeting a new person who discovers you're from Iowa. Unless you're talking to one of those indier-than-thou types, of course; they'll just bring up Slipknot and crystal meth. Eventually you realize that people are actually amazed you're wearing shoes, you use words with two or three syllables, and you haven't urinated in the houseplants.

Not that they know of, anyway.

The message all these non-Iowans want to send is something like "You're from a place we feel inherently superior to; therefore, we must be better than you as well." The message you form in your head is more like "These people will never be impressed by anything I do, so why do I care what they think?" Sometimes this manifests itself in an "I'll hurt myself before you get a chance to" attitude. We in the upper Midwest have perfected self-effacing humor. More often it comes across as a decision to define yourself on your own terms.

That's what the Hawkeyes are doing. You don't have to tell them they have trouble on offense, any more than you have to tell a Midwesterner that our winters are cold. Really? Gosh, that must be why the tomato plants keep dying. I'm glad you told me because I was planning to serve BLTs for Christmas dinner!

Right. The games.

MICHIGAN @ ILLINOIS

I told you Ron Zook wasn't going to get whacked.

Now let's see if the "we have no other choice so here's a vote of confidence" he got this week is going to have any effect on the team. With a certain loss looming at Cincinnati Nov. 27, the Illini are not technically bowl-ineligible yet but might as well be. The only thing left for them to do is sack up now that there's essentially nothing to play for, hoping to make some other team as miserable as they are.

Unfortunately, this will not be the week for that. Illinois ranks 102nd nationally in total defense. Michigan just had to face the nation's best scoring defense (Penn State) last week. It's going to look like the Wolverines hit up up down down left right left right B A Start. Michigan 52, Illinois 13.

INDIANA @ IOWA

Trap game?

Maybe.

Even though I just spent six paragraphs explaining why Iowa doesn't care about style points and public opinion, the Hawks know that the rest of the world sees this as an opportunity for them to earn enough of the former to sway the latter. They probably also know that one more close game against a team perceived as bad will knock them down in the human polls. Way down.

Now factor in that Iowa's starting running back Adam Robinson, who was only starting because the preseason starter Jewel Hampton was lost for the season in August, is now lost for the season himself. Now Brandon Wegher, whose hometown of Dakota Dunes, S.D., appears to be endlessly fascinating to play-by-play announcers, gets to be The Guy. Wegher has cooled off from his impressive start to the season; let's see what he can do without another back competing for touches.

Then there's Indiana, a team perceived as bad. They're actually not that bad, but they haven't shaken their penchant for losing games in the most humiliating fashion possible. Sandwiched around a win over Illinois were a pantsing at Virginia three weeks ago and a thoroughly improbable loss to a very average Northwestern team last week. That sort of stuff gets into your head, and that's unfortunate. The Hoosiers have a solid pass rush, which you would think would be exactly what a team facing Iowa would want to have.

The problem is that "make Ricky Stanzi beat you" could prove to be even less successful for IU than it has for Iowa's last 12 opponents. Indiana gives up more passing yards than any other team in the conference and flat out stinks at preventing their opponents from getting first downs. They're scoring the same 23.6 points per game that Iowa is. They're just giving up 12 more points than the Hawks on average.

I still think Bill Lynch deserves better than this. Iowa 26, Indiana 10.

MICHIGAN STATE @ MINNESOTA

Speaking of catastrophic, soul-shattering, season-altering injuries, Minnesota has lost wide receiver Eric Decker for the season. Which means Minnesota has basically lost its offense for the season.

The real question in this game will be Michigan State's resiliency. They almost played well enough to beat a top 10 team last week. Almost. Now, can they pull it back together, realize there's still a lot to play for, and take it to their opponents from here on out?

You won't know after this week. Minnesota is starting to take on that abandoned-car look which they so often had under Glen Mason. Michigan State 30, Minnesota 7.

PENN STATE @ NORTHWESTERN

Through the first half of the season no Big Ten team seemed more disappointing than Northwestern. (I say that because I didn't expect Illinois to be any good this year.) I mean, they lost to Syracuse. You know who else has done that this year? Akron. Oh, and Maine.

I still don't think they're a great team, though the rally to beat Indiana last week was impressive. NU is tough, but the parts just don't all seem to be there.

You know who's not having a lot of problems? Penn State. Their closest game all season, except for the Iowa loss, was an 18-point victory over Illinois. The Nits have just been blowing people up. I think NU can play this one closer than anyone else has, but they just don't have enough defense to stop Penn State. PSU 31, Northwestern 20.

NEW MEXICO STATE @ OHIO STATE

Give this to the NMSU Aggies: they're one of the most consistent teams in the NCAA. When they win, they win by three points. When they lose, they lose by at least 15.

Three guesses as to what sort of outcome is more likely in this game. Ohio State 56, New Mexico State 0.

Know Your Nonconference Tomato Can: New Mexico State University

Located a mere half-hour north of El Paso, Texas in the rapidly growing city of Las Cruces, New Mexico State University actually predates New Mexico by almost a quarter century. The former New Mexico A&M was founded in 1888; New Mexico didn't become a state until 1912.

NMSU is probably the only university in America whose founding charter specifies that it was to be located by a drainage ditch, but from those humble origins the university has grown to a comprehensive university with around 17,000 students. Agriculture and engineering are still strongly emphasized, however, and NMSU is known for being in the forefront of chili pepper research. It is one of the few places in the world where the Naga Jolokia pepper is grown; said pepper is anywhere from three to ten times hotter than a habanero.

New Mexico State can also plausibly claim to be the birthplace of card counting. Former math professor Edward O. Thorp literally wrote the book on this blackjack strategy. Thorp's Beat the Dealer was published in 1962 while he was teaching at NMSU.

NMSU alumnus Charley Johnson was a journeyman NFL quarterback in the 1960s and early 1970s. While playing in St. Louis, Johnson decided to further his education and in doing so became one of the very few NFL players to earn a PhD. He earned his doctorate in chemical engineering from the prestigious Washington University in St. Louis. Did I mention he did this while he was still playing in the NFL?

Johnson returned to Las Cruces after retiring from football. He joined the engineering faculty at NMSU, and he's still there.

PURDUE @ WISCONSIN

Wisconsin has had a week off since losing back-to-back games to Ohio State and Iowa. Purdue, of course, beat Ohio State -- though whether that happened because Purdue can beat anybody on the right day or because Ohio State can lose to anybody on the right day remains to be seen.

These two teams appear headed in opposite directions, with the Boilermakers finding a way to stop losing and the Badgers wondering if last season is about to happen all over. Most of the matchups in this game favor Wisconsin, however. The Badgers are just more talented and haven't been burned as often as Purdue has.

Wisconsin's offense has cooled off since their fast start, though much of that can be attributed to playing Ohio State and Iowa. They are still a dangerous team that can strike through the air or on the ground. They'd prefer to strike on the ground, though, and that happens to be the best place to hit Purdue. I like the coaching job Danny Hope has done in preventing his team from collapsing after a horrible start. If the Boilermakers can beat Ohio State they can probably beat anybody in this conference, though the Badgers probably won't give Purdue as much help as Ohio State did. Wisconsin 28, Purdue 24.

Next week's games:

Wisconsin @ Indiana: I actually expect this to be a very good game
Northwestern @ Iowa: Fitz always gives Iowa fits
Purdue @ Michigan: Pack your dinner, neither team plays defense
Western Michigan @ Michigan State: Dangerous game for MSU
Illinois @ Minnesota: Whatever it is, take the under
Ohio State @ Penn State: Possibly the best Big Ten game this season

Pickin' on the Big Ten: Iowa Isn't Concerned About Your Scorn originally appeared on NCAA Football FanHouse on Thu, 29 Oct 2009 12:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Clearing Up the Big Ten Picture

Mark Hasty — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 07:30:00 EST

Filed under: Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Big 10

While most of the world is still trying to figure out how the Iowa Hawkeyes stole the cheese out of the mousetrap -- again -- the conference title race is beginning to take a little more shape. Since neither Iowa nor Ohio State lost this past weekend, there's no shakeup at the top. Both teams remain equally in control of their respective destinies.

But what about the rest of the league? Is anybody new out of the hunt this week? Who's still alive but barely breathing? And where do things go from here in this crazy conference?

Still in Control

Iowa and Ohio State know the path is simple. Win out, you win the conference. Iowa doesn't need to win out if Ohio State loses one of its remaining conference games (at Penn State, Iowa, at Michigan). A single Buckeye loss would put Iowa two games up on Ohio State. The Hawkeyes already own a tiebreaker against Penn State. If OSU loses a game, Iowa can lose one too -- and it wouldn't matter which game either team lost.

Ohio State doesn't have to win out so long as Iowa loses at least three of its last four games (Indiana, Northwestern, at Ohio State, Minnesota). That's asking a lot.

A Little Help, Please

Penn State can still make it to the Rose Bowl if it wins out (at Northwestern, Ohio State, Indiana, at Michigan State) and Iowa loses twice. If the Nits lose to Ohio State, they can still win if the Buckeyes lose to Iowa and Michigan and Iowa loses twice. Penn State is eliminated by any three Iowa victories.

A Lot of Help, Please

Michigan State must finish with a better conference record than Iowa and Wisconsin. They would need at least one Badger loss and three Iowa losses. Because the Spartans don't play Ohio State this season they would also need to finish ahead of OSU in the conference or hope for New Mexico State to upset the Buckeyes. Then, so long as Sparty beats Western Michigan, they could tie the Buckeyes and hope the BCS rankings would go in their favor. It would be far simpler just to finish with a better conference record than OSU. Michigan State is eliminated by any two Iowa victories, or if Wisconsin wins out in the conference.

A Miracle, Please

(Note: All these teams must win out to have any chance at winning the conference.)

Northwestern would have victories over Penn State and Iowa if they won out. They would need Iowa to lose one more game, as well. The Wildcats don't play Ohio State. If Northwestern and OSU finished tied in the standings, the BCS rankings would thus be their tiebreaker, unless New Mexico State beats the Buckeyes in Columbus this Saturday. The Aggies are 3-5. Good luck with that. Since OSU would likely have the better BCS ranking, Northwestern would need to finish with a better conference record. That would require two Buckeye losses. Any two Iowa victories or Ohio State winning out would eliminate Northwestern.

Purdue doesn't play Iowa or Penn State this season. It would need three Iowa losses and two Penn State losses. The Boilermakers can finish tied with Ohio State since they beat the Buckeyes, but that requires one more Buckeye loss. They also need Northwestern to lose at least once more. They are eliminated by two Iowa victories, three Penn State victories, or Northwestern winning out.

Wisconsin needs Iowa to lose three times and Ohio State to lose twice. If OSU beats Iowa, the Buckeyes have to lose to Penn State and Michigan. If Iowa beats OSU, the Hawkeyes would have to lose their three remaining home games. It is very hard to see this happening. Wisconsin would be eliminated by two Iowa victories plus two OSU conference victories.

Michigan needs Iowa, Michigan State, and Penn State to finish with four conference losses and Ohio State (whom the Wolverines would beat in the process of winning out) to finish with three conference losses. Since Ohio State has to win one game in order for Iowa to lose out, that means that OSU would also have to lose to Penn State. Penn State would have to lose to Northwestern, Indiana, and Michigan State to give Michigan a chance. That scenario would also require Michigan State to lose to Minnesota and Purdue. In other words, the Wolverines aren't eliminated yet but might as well be. A single Iowa victory would eliminate the Wolverines.

Indiana, like Northwestern, would have victories over Iowa and Penn State if they won out. They would still need Iowa to lose twice more and Penn State once. Ohio State would have to lose all their remaining conference games, Northwestern and Michigan State would both have to lose once. This gives Indiana a situation similar to Michigan's. They're not eliminated but they're hardly alive. A single OSU conference victory or two by Iowa closes the door on IU.

Minnesota needs Iowa to lose three of its four remaining conference games. It also needs Ohio State to lose all of its remaining conference games. This means the Hawks would have to beat Ohio State but lose to everybody else. The Gophers would also need Penn State to beat Ohio State but lose to everybody else. Wisconsin has already beaten Minnesota so the Badgers would also have to lose twice and finish with four conference losses. The Gophers are eliminated by either an Iowa victory or a Penn State victory, so long as that win was over anyone other than Ohio State, or a single OSU conference victory.

Dude, Did You Know There's a Fork in Your Back?

Illinois was eliminated last week.

Impacts of This Week's Games

An Iowa win over Indiana eliminates Indiana and Michigan.

An Ohio State win over New Mexico State gives OSU an outright tiebreaker over Michigan State.

A Penn State win over Northwestern eliminates Michigan.

A Michigan State win over Minnesota eliminates Michigan.

Purdue, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Minnesota are eliminated if they lose.

Clearing Up the Big Ten Picture originally appeared on NCAA Football FanHouse on Mon, 26 Oct 2009 07:30:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Undefeated Iowa Gets Timeless Victory

Mark Hasty — Sat, 24 Oct 2009 23:40:00 EST

Filed under: Iowa, Michigan State

Iowa and Michigan State decided to save all the excitement for the last three minutes of their game Saturday.

The Hawkeyes beat the Spartans 15-13 on a seven-yard, last-second touchdown pass from Ricky Stanzi to Marvin McNutt.

Michigan State went up 13-9 on a Kirk Cousins-to-Blair White pass that went right down the middle for 30 yards. The pass came just two plays after an unbelievable hook-and-ladder involving White and tight end Brian Linthicum.

After the kickoff Iowa had just 1:32 to find the end zone.

Iowa quickly drove to MSU's 15 when Chris L. Rucker appeared to intercept Iowa quarterback Ricky Stanzi. However, Rucker was flagged for holding on the play, giving Iowa first-and-goal at the Spartan 7-yard-line. Stanzi threw three incomplete passes, leaving Iowa with fourth-and-goal and only two seconds remaining. Following a Hawkeye timeout, Stanzi hit McNutt in rush-hour traffic, silencing the Spartan Stadium crowd. They've seen this sort of situation unfold too many times before.

Once again Stanzi was far from wonderful, completing just 40 percent of his pass attempts. The Hawkeye quarterback is often hard to watch. He holds on to the ball too long. He throws across his body into double coverage. This is fine if you're Brett Favre, but Stanzi is not. However, at least tonight all of his completions were to Hawkeyes.

The game was played without a single turnover.

For Michigan State, this was its fourth loss overall and second in conference play. The Spartans' hopes of winning the Big Ten essentially died Saturday night. They officially die next Saturday if Iowa beats the doddering Indiana Hoosiers in Iowa City and MSU loses at Minnesota.

The Hawkeyes moved to 8-0, the best start in school history. They are beginning to take on the aura of a team of destiny, though such teams usually have at least a token offense. Then again, for all the complaining about Stanzi and the rest of the offense, they did move the ball 70 yards in 90 seconds. Stanzi's final pass into double coverage was exactly on target as well; McNutt was the only player with a chance at the ball.

For now, the Hawkeyes share control of the Big Ten with Ohio State, a team they face in Columbus in three weeks. However, a single Ohio State conference loss at any point before the end of the season would render that game moot. The Hawks could lose against the Buckeyes and still win the title as long as they didn't lose any other games.

Then again, every time this year it looked like Iowa was finally beaten, something incredible has happened to keep the dream season alive. Why assume that's going to stop now?

Undefeated Iowa Gets Timeless Victory originally appeared on NCAA Football FanHouse on Sat, 24 Oct 2009 23:40:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Pickin' on the Big Ten: Sorting Saturday

Mark Hasty — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 15:00:00 EST

Filed under: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue

Every Thursday, Pickin' on the Big Ten answers the questions, questions the answers, and looks ahead to Saturday's games.

It's now indisputably late October. The leaves here in Wisconsin went from being Monet-like things of beauty to being a soggy ground-based nuisance in less time than it takes for a new Jim Tressel criticism to appear on the internet. It feels like the season just started but after this weekend it's two-thirds over.

There are so many questions yet to answer, however. I've already explored the various Big Ten title scenarios, so let's look at some of the other burning issues.

Is Terrelle Pryor actually a quarterback?

That's the talking point du jour here in flyover country after the Buckeyes' pants-blast against Purdue last week. Pryor isn't turning into the Tecmo Bowl Bo Jackson he was supposed to be back when Rivals and Scout were trying to find ways to give him a sixth or seventh star. There have even been intimations from Pryor's high school coach that the OSU staff may have made some promises to Pryor that either aren't being kept or are being kept but shouldn't be.

The whole mess had made people finally realize that Todd Boeckman got a raw deal last season and Terrelle Pryor is getting a raw deal this season. Pryor simply isn't ready to be The Guy. Moving him to wide receiver, as some are suggesting, isn't going to make him better and isn't going to help the Buckeyes at all.

Pryor looked so good at times last season because he didn't have to do it all. Boeckman was always around when a more traditional quarterbacking style was called for. Benching Pryor now, or moving him to another position, would just transfer all that pressure to Joe Bauserman. Maybe if the Buckeyes lose another game, putting them decisively out of the Big Ten title race, it might be worth seeing if Bauserman can provide some mojo. Until then, the Buckeyes' best chance to win is with Pryor under center. It's just that those chances aren't as good as the chances OSU fans are used to.

When is Ron Zook going to get whacked?

Certainly not until the end of the season, and maybe not then, either. UIUC is in the midst of administrative chaos centered around an admissions scandal -- one which doesn't involve athletics. University Chancellor Richard Herman announced his resignation this week. University President B. Joseph White has also resigned, along with a number of trustees. That's a lot of decision makers to have to replace all at once. Obviously, someone will occupy all these offices on an interim basis, but do you think any of them will want to make major decisions?

Complicating things is the fact that Zook signed a contract extension this summer, which makes him more expensive to buy out. Athletic Director Ron Guenther may be forced to hit the gong anyway just to save his own job, but the timing couldn't be worse for Illinois.

Besides, who are you going to get to come in? Zook has a nice arsenal at Illinois and there are plenty of coaches out there who are experts at getting the most out of the talent they have. But would they be interested in Illinois? The last coach to leave Champaign with a winning record was John Mackovic who left for Texas in 1991. Since then the Illini are 88-123-2, and their overall winning percentage has dropped with each coach.

Is Iowa going to sneak into the national title game more or less by default just to get their doors blown off?

No, and I'll tell you why. It has nothing to do with the perceived weakness of the Big Ten and everything to do with the dramatic dropoffs found in other conferences.

Who's the third-best team in the SEC?

Who's the second-best team in the Big 12?

Who's the best team in the Pac 10?

We don't know the answers to any of those questions, which should tell you that Texas and whoever wins the SEC have the shortest route to Pasadena. At any rate, before the season I had Iowa finishing 10-2. I had them at 7-0 at this point in the season. I'm not bragging; I'm just saying that I do not actually see the Hawks running the table. So don't worry. Some other conference's champion will be embarrassing themselves in the title game.

Right. The games.

PENN STATE @ MICHIGAN

It's the fourth Saturday in October and this is Penn State's second road game. Nope, nothing wrong with your scheduling, PSU!

If the wheel of karma is spinning the way it ought to, the Wolverines are going to get crushed in this game. Their offensive line in the second half of last week's Delaware State game was made up entirely of sousaphone players from the marching band, for crying out loud. And was that Mary Sue Coleman, the president of the university, running back punts in the fourth quarter?

If ever a team could come in to The Big House and deliver karmic retribution to the Wolverines, it would be Penn State. Iowa is the only school to hold the Nits under 20 points, as well as the only team to score more than 17 on them. Otherwise the scores have been as gaudy as you would suspect. They just aren't as gaudy as they were last year.

Then again, you could make a case that Penn State hasn't faced an offense any better than Iowa's, and Iowa's offense is not exactly a benchmark of wonderfulness. Michigan's offense is quite a different story. Nobody has held them under 20 points, and iowa's defense is at least as good as Penn State's.

This game will come down to who has the better playmakers. Michigan wins that battle on offense, Penn State on defense. Since this is the year of Big D, I'm going with PSU. Penn State 28, Michigan 24.

IOWA @ MICHIGAN STATE

This is the game this weekend with the most implications for the Big Ten title. Both these teams are legitimately contending for it.

Kirk Ferentz has never won in East Lansing. In fact, the last time Iowa won at Spartan Stadium Ren and Stimpy were still on the air.

Michigan State has come a long way from their 1-3 start, but do they have enough to beat the Hawkeyes? It depends. No Big Ten team passes for more yards than Sparty, but that actually could be a liability. The Hawks have picked off every starting quarterback they've faced, with the exception of Northern Iowa's Pat Grace. Kirk Cousins is expected to get the start for Michigan State. He doesn't throw many picks, but Iowa has a way of making bad things happen.

So Sparty needs to get the running game going early before the Hawkeyes start dropping linebackers into coverage. Without a good running game they're just going to be too easy to defend. MSU hasn't put up more than 30 points all season.

Defensively the Spartans need to force Ricky Stanzi to throw, though as the season goes on that strategy works less and less. Derrell Johnson-Koulianos and Tony Moeaki are both hitting their peak now as receivers, which has cut down on Stanzi's struggles. Iowa probably won't be able to run the ball very well all afternoon, but neither, I fear, will Michigan State. In the end, Iowa's superior pass defense and MSU's inexperienced running backs will make the difference as Iowa wins. DEATH RIDES A PALE COW 30, OFFENSIVE WIZARD IN MY BACKYARD 23.

(You like that? A little old school POTBT for you longtimers. For the n00bs, that means I expect Iowa, a team from a state with a lot of cows, to defeat Michigan State, a school with offensive wizard Rich Rodriguez nearby, by a final score of 30 points to 23 points. Also it means I am a fan of the Dead Milkmen.)

INDIANA @ NORTHWESTERN

Both these teams deserve better seasons than the ones they're having. Indiana has finally solved its baffling offensive problems and actually has one of the best pass rushes in the conference. Yet somehow it's all for naught. The Hoosiers lost to Ohio State and Michigan in consecutive weeks, then went to Virginia the week after someone on Al Groh's staff decided to risk having to do 4,000 pushups by telling the coach the football season had actually started and all these games counted. They got over on Illinois last week, but that's sort of like bragging that you were only third in line at Starbucks.

Northwestern, meanwhile, can't put the pieces together . Their offense started off just fine but their defense was lost in space. Then the defense showed up at the same time the offense took a cookie break. If they ever get both units to show up for the same game they might really have something.

Since both these teams have the consistency of cafeteria soup it's hard to predict how things will go. I like Indiana's ability to run the ball better than I like Northwestern's. I don't trust Ben Chappell as much as I trust Mike Kafka. But I don't trust Mike Kafka all that much. I've picked the road team in every game so far, but they can't all win. Northwestern, in a game that's so ugly it'll belong on public access. Northwestern 14, Indiana 10.

MINNESOTA @ OHIO STATE

I'm tempted to make some lame quip like "Here's one road team I won't be taking" but if the Buckeyes can lose to a team as snakebit as Purdue, then anything can happen. Except for Minnesota scoring a lot of points. Or Ohio State not scoring a lot of points. I'll go out on a limb here and say that Terrelle Pryor won't need any lukewarm endorsements for at least seven days after this game. Ohio State 31, Minnesota 12.

ILLINOIS @ PURDUE

WTTW in Chicago is showing Mexico One Plate at a Time at 11:30 on Saturday. Rick Bayless will be making tortas.

I'm just sayin', that's all. Purdue 38, Illinois 21.

Next week's games:

Michigan @ Illinois: This ought to be good for a few laughs
Indiana @ Iowa: And this
Michigan State @ Minnesota: Not to mention this
Penn State @ Northwestern: Or this
New Mexico State @ Ohio State: That's not funny
Purdue @ Wisconsin: This is as close to a good game as we're going to get, I guess

Pickin' on the Big Ten: Sorting Saturday originally appeared on NCAA Football FanHouse on Thu, 22 Oct 2009 15:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Big Ten Title Race Far From Over

Mark Hasty — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 15:30:00 EST

Filed under: Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Big 10

The Iowa Hawkeyes are the Big Ten's only undefeated team, both in conference play and overall. Right behind the No. 7 Hawkeyes stand a 5-2 team (Ohio State), a 4-3 team (Michigan State), and a 6-1 team Iowa has already beaten (Penn State).

The Hawks look to be in complete control of the conference race, with those 6-1 Nittany Lions nipping at their heels. But Iowa the only Big Ten team in control of its BCS destiny? No, no they are not. You might be surprised how little help some of the other teams need, too.

Let's take a look at who could still win the conference without any help, who needs a little help from their enemies friends, and who might as well start making other plans for New Year's.

Before we start, however, remember the Big Ten's tiebreaker policy, which goes in this order: Head-to-head result, overall winning percentage (i.e., nonconference record), and BCS standings. Will any of these be tiebreakers prove necessary? They just might.

The Contenders

Iowa and Ohio State play each other Nov. 14. Thus, if either team wins out, that team wins the conference. Ohio State's stunning loss to Purdue is nullified if they beat the Hawkeyes.

Winning out is a mighty big 'if' for both teams, however. Iowa plays at Michigan State this Saturday. Kirk Ferentz has never won in East Lansing. Ohio State travels to Happy Valley Nov. 7, and you'll see how that game fits into Penn State's plans a little later.

If the Buckeyes fall to Penn State, Iowa doesn't need to beat OSU to win the conference. It would be enough to beat Michigan State, or hope Sparty and Penn State each lose one more conference game.

If Michigan State beats Iowa, Ohio State doesn't need to beat the Hawkeyes as long as a.) someone else besides MSU does beat Iowa, b.) Michigan State loses at least one more conference game, and c.) the Buckeyes don't gack against New Mexico State. Otherwise ... well, it's easier to explain from Sparty's point of view.

Need a Little Help

Michigan State doesn't play Ohio State and thus far has a worse non-conference record than Ohio State. Nonetheless, Sparty can still win the conference if they win out, which would give them tiebreakers against Iowa and Penn State, and Ohio State loses one more conference game. If OSU loses to New Mexico State but wins out otherwise, the Spartans and Buckeyes would find themselves watching the BCS standings because those standings would decide the conference title. Ohio State is No. 19 in the current BCS standings. Michigan State doesn't appear in them. Advantage: Buckeyes.

Penn State can win the conference if they win out and Iowa loses twice. Ohio State and Michigan State would both finish no better than 6-2 in conference since they both still have to play Penn State. The Nits would be 7-1 in the conference under that scenario. If Iowa doesn't lose twice Penn State is eliminated from winning the conference.

Minnesota wins the conference if they win out, Iowa loses one other conference game, and Penn State loses once. The Gophers play the Buckeyes this week in Columbus. A Minnesota win would be OSU's second conference loss and the Gophers would thus own the tiebreaker over the Buckeyes. (I'm with you; I can't believe how little help the Gophers need.)

Need a Lot of Help

Wisconsin has lost to Ohio State and Iowa. They must finish with a better conference record than either team. That requires three Iowa losses and and two more Ohio State conference losses, plus Wisconsin running the table from this point forward. Since the Badgers beat Michigan State, they can finish tied with the Spartans and still go to the Rose Bowl. Of course, they can only finish tied with the Spartans if somebody else in the conference beats MSU.

Wisconsin doesn't play Penn State this season and the two teams have identical non-conference records. If Penn State loses once more the Badgers could also tie the Nits. Assuming Wisky and PSU are the only two-conference-loss teams in the Big Ten, the title would be decided by ... oh man. The title would be decided by the Wisconsin-Hawaii game on December 5th.

Purdue owns a tiebreaker against Ohio State but doesn't play Iowa or Penn State. The Boilermakers' 1-3 nonconference schedule requires them to finish with a better conference record than either of those schools, which would require three Iowa losses and two Penn State losses.

Michigan has lost to Michigan State and Iowa. Unless both those teams wind up with three conference losses the Wolverines can't win the Big Ten. However, if both those teams do lose three times and Michigan wins out, the Maize and Blue could still, theoretically, wind up in the Rose Bowl.

Northwestern needs two Iowa losses, two Ohio State losses (they don't play OSU this season), one Michigan State loss, one Indiana loss, and no more losses of their own.

Indiana needs to run the table and hope for three Iowa losses, two Ohio State losses, and one Michigan loss.

So okay, there's one team still unaccounted for. Illinois. Is all lost for the Illini?

All Is Lost

It is. Since Illinois doesn't play Iowa this season, they would have to finish with a better conference record than the Hawkeyes, which is only possible if Iowa loses the rest of its games. However, the Illini have already lost to Ohio State so they would need a better conference record than the Buckeyes as well. That's not possible if OSU beats Iowa. Therefore, the Illini have been mathematically eliminated from the Big Ten title race.

More's the pity. I was hoping there would be a chain of wreckage which would put them in the Rose Bowl, because that would be the death blow for the BCS. Some other year, some other conference.

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Students gather around a candle vigil for Connecticut football player Jasper Howard in Storrs, Conn., Monday, Oct. 19, 2009. Howard, 20, of Miami, a junior and starting cornerback, and a second person were stabbed during a fight early Sunday after someone pulled a fire alarm during a dance at the UConn Student Union, police said. (AP Photo/Jessica Hill)

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Members of the University of Connecticut's football team share stories about their teammate and friend Jasper Howard around a candle vigil at the spot where he was killed outside the Student Union on campus in Storrs, Conn., Monday, Oct. 19, 2009. Twenty-year-old Howard, of Miami, a junior and starting cornerback, and a second person were stabbed during a fight early Sunday after someone pulled a fire alarm during a dance at the UConn Student Union, police said. (AP Photo/Jessica Hill)

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A candle vigil is displayed at the spot where Connecticut football player Jasper Howard was killed outside the Student Union on campus in Storrs, Conn., Monday, Oct. 19, 2009. Twenty-year-old Howard, of Miami, a junior and starting cornerback, and a second person were stabbed during a fight early Sunday after someone pulled a fire alarm during a dance at the UConn Student Union, police said. (AP Photo/Jessica Hill)

Kentucky quarterback Randall Cobb (18) finds the end zone around Auburn defensive back Daren Bates (25) during an NCAA college football game on Saturday, Oct. 17, 2009, in Auburn, Ala. (AP Photo/Butch Dill)

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Arizona State receiver Chris McGaha celebrates his game-winning touchdown against Washington during the second half of an NCAA college football game Saturday, Oct. 17, 2009 in Tempe, Ariz. Arizona State won 24-17. (AP Photo/Matt York)

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Arizona State's William Sutton (90) and James Brooks (34) celebrate their team's win over Washington during the second half of an NCAA college football game Saturday, Oct. 17, 2009 in Tempe, Ariz. Arizona State won 24-17. (AP Photo/Matt York)

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A documentary is being produced on the Wichita State plane crash in Colorado from almost 40 years ago. The Star met with Howard Johnson, from left, father of one of the victims, Ron Johnson; one of the survivors, David Lewis, and the roommate of Ron Johnson, Gerry Gleissner. (Allison Long/Kansas City Star/MCT)

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A documentary is being produced on the Wichita State plane crash in Colorado from almost 40 years ago. The Star met with the parents of one of the victims of the crash; Howard, left, and Virginia Johnson. In the background is a picture and helmet of their son Ron Johnson. (Allison Long/Kansas City Star/MCT)

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A documentary is being produced on the Wichita State plane crash in Colorado from almost 40 years ago. Wichita State football player Ronnie Johnson, shown in family photograph, was 21 years old when he and 29 other people were killed. (Courtesy Johnson family/Kansas City Star/MCT)

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Big Ten Title Race Far From Over originally appeared on NCAA Football FanHouse on Tue, 20 Oct 2009 15:30:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Pickin' on the Big Ten: Teams for Sale

Mark Hasty — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 10:30:00 EST

Filed under: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Big 10

Every Thursday, Pickin' on the Big Ten gives you the bottom line on the upcoming weekend's games.

Every team now has six games on the books. Well, Illinois doesn't, which is good news/bad news. Illinois fans have only had to watch five games so far; that's good news. They have seven games left to watch, which is not such good news.

This would be a perfect time for mid-term report cards, but letter grades are so one-dimensional, don't you think? There are more meaningful comparisons to be made. Make the jump and see every Big Ten team compared to ... well, just go and look.

Illinois is like the Whopper (or, if you prefer, any other reasonably complicated fast food burger). You see the ads and it looks fantastic. They talk about using the best-quality, freshest ingredients and it shows. You see a perfectly-cooked burger glistening with juice, deep red tomatoes, green lettuce that looks like it was just picked, all stacked high on a golden brown bun. You can't resist. This is going to be good.

Then you get one. You unwrap it. It doesn't look like the picture. It looks like somebody who had never seen a hamburger before made it by hurling ingredients at a bun from a good 15 or 20 feet away. You sit under a buzzing fluorescent light, gnawing away at it, hoping you forget this meal as soon as possible.

Indiana is like grapefruit juice. You want it to be good, yet no matter what you do it, it inevitably leaves a bitter aftertaste in your mouth. You run for the toothbrush of basketball season, only to discover that grapefruit juice plus toothpaste is a combination that belongs in the next Saw movie.

Iowa is IKEA furniture. Not many things are both trendy and popular, but IKEA and the Hawkeyes both are right now. IKEA because it's cheap; Iowa because a weary football nation sees the Hawkeyes as the last best hope for a Buckeye-free BCS. Thus millions are willing to overlook the common flaws of each: They're kind of funny looking, nobody is really sure how long either will hold up, and you're not sure you can believe them when they say that the STANZI coffee table goes with the FERENTZ armchair, the ANGERER TV stand, and the MOEAKI floor lamp.

Michigan is a BMW with the first-generation iDrive system. From the outside, everybody can see that you've got a Bimmer, and a fairly new one at that. It's easy to be impressed. That's good news for you, because you're sitting inside the car with absolutely no idea how to change the radio station or keep the defroster from running full blast all summer long. But you look like a player.

Michigan State is any article of clothing from the late Steve & Barry's. I loved Steve & Barry's, mostly because I am a horribly cheap individual. Buying clothes there was a bit risky, though. Some things would hold up as well as anything else you could buy. Some things fell to tatters the third time you wore them. You didn't know which you had until one day you were out walking and all of a sudden there's a little trickle of cold air in your armpit or your crotch or some other place where cold air is not supposed to be felt on a fully clothed body and OH CRAP IT'S HAPPENING AGAIN.

Minnesota is MTN DEW. New container, same product, same tendency to keep you up nights if you take in too much of it.

Northwestern is a gas station burrito. They're as tasty on offense as the burrito is in your mouth. Then they go on defense, the burrito hits your intestines, and all of a sudden you wish there was somebody around who could keep bad things from happening.

Ohio State is a Buick Century. Designed as an unhip car for unhip people, the Century couldn't outrun or outdazzle anything on the road. While at one time driving a Buick meant you were too rich for a Chevy and too humble for a Cadillac, those were different times and different Buicks. Your neighbors will tell you, "Hey, nice car." But you you know the minute they get in their Altimas and Passats they're laughing at you and your "ask me about my grandchildren" car.

Yet, no matter how much scorn and abuse gets heaped on it, it just won't die. It starts on the coldest, bleakest mornings. It may never run perfectly, but it'll run okay longer than most cars will run at all. It'll even keep running long after you yourself are sick of it. The only way to get rid of it is to drive around parking lots looking for an Anti-Buick you can park it next to, hoping that the violent explosion which follows doesn't ignite the entire universe.

Penn State is Beeman's gum. You thought it was gone, but it came back, looking like it had never left.

Purdue is the wretched combination of Adobe Flash and Windows Vista. It works well until it doesn't. Then your browser crashes, three other programs stop working, there are security alerts all over the place, and just when you really need Task Manager, CTRL-ALT-DELETE gets you ten seconds of a black screen followed by a dialog box telling you that Vista failed to create Security Options. You sit there wondering why they ever decided to do it like that.

Wisconsin is RC Cola. It tastes a little different. Some people like it. Some don't. Everybody agrees that it's not as big as Coke or Pepsi.

Right. The games.

ILLINOIS @ INDIANA

If either team wins this game, it'll be a miracle. Indiana 23, Illinois 20.

DELAWARE STATE @ MICHIGAN

Delaware State is a ~~Division I-AA~~ Football Championship Subdivision school. They are giving up, on average, almost 400 yards per game. They have scored, on average, a little over 14 points per game. Last week the DSU Hornets lost at home to Bethune-Cookman. It was Bethune-Cookman's first win of the season; they lost to ~~Division II~~ (oh, wait, it's still called Division II) Shaw in their season opener.

I thought that this, plus Michigan's explosive offense, would combine to make a game so stinky that not even the Big Ten Network would show it. I thought wrong. Oh well. Enjoy the game, Wolverines; you probably deserve something to smile about after last week. Michigan 66, Delaware State 7.

Know Your Nonconference Tomato Can: Delaware State

Located in Delaware's capital city of Dover, Delaware State University is part of America's proud tradition of historically black colleges and universities. DSU was founded in 1891 as the State College for Colored Students before becoming Delaware State College in 1947 and Delaware State University in 1993.

Despite being in the same state and same NCAA division as the University of Delaware, the two schools did not meet in football until 2007, and then only because both schools made the FCS playoffs. Earlier this season, they played their first regular season game.

DSU is a small school, enrolling only about 3,700 students.Its best known alumnus is Dr. Clyde Bishop, the US ambassador to the Marshall Islands. That sounds like a pretty good gig to me.

NORTHWESTERN @ MICHIGAN STATE

The story here is injuries; namely, how will Sparty react to losing starting running back Glenn Winston for the season with a torn ACL? Larry Caper appears ready to step in, but even he tweaked his knee in last week's Illinois game. Quarterback Kirk Cousins is expected to start this week after missing most of the Illinois game with a sore ankle.

Northwestern, meanwhile, is healthy, but their 16-6 loss to Miami (Ohio) last week was yet another unimpressive outing for the Wildcats. Things are bound to get better for NU soon, and a bowl game awaits, but they won't get any closer to it this week. Michigan State 30, Northwestern 17.

MINNESOTA @ PENN STATE

This is one of those games that looks dangerous on paper because the teams have similar records and their overall statistics aren't that far off. Where the teams differ is in overall talent and most particularly depth. Minnesota has come a long way from their 1-11 2007 season, but doesn't yet have all the parts to make a run at the conference title. There are individual Gophers who are as good as their counterparts on any Big Ten team (Eric Decker, for one, who I'm not sure is even human) but football is a team sport.

This is the first game of a brutal road trip for Tim Brewster's team, who travel to Columbus next week. Penn State will play three of its final five games on the road, but they won't face 30% of the challenges the Gophers will. The Nits are lying in wait for the Buckeyes; Minnesota's only real hope is that Penn State is thinking more about that game than this one. I wouldn't bet on that. Penn State 28, Minnesota 16.

OHIO STATE @ PURDUE

Two reasons not to be so glum, oh ye Purdubious: You probably won't lose this game in the last minute, and Illinois is coming to town next week. Ohio State 45, Purdue 20.

IOWA @ WISCONSIN

Here it is, the sole Big Ten game this week which can be described as "watchable." Wisconsin is still reeling from its "How did we lose that game?" performance in the Horseshoe last Saturday, while Iowa continues to whistle past the graveyard.

The Badgers' well-balanced, potent offense means that Iowa can't leave eight in the box, which is the usual defensive game plan for beating Wisconsin. Arkansas State and Michigan exposed some vulnerabilities in the Hawkeye pass defense; now it's up to Scott Tolzien, Nick Toon, and Garrett Graham to exploit them.

That's assuming that John Clay doesn't just take this game on his shoulder and run with it. If Clay has early success, he'll put the Iowa defense back on its heels and force Ricky Stanzi to play with urgency. The problem for WIsconsin is that you never know which John Clay you're going to get.

Wisconsin's defense gives up a lot of points, however, and that will help keep the Hawkeyes in this game. Nothing's going to be easy for Iowa this year, this game included, but somehow Kirk Ferentz will find a way to hold on. Again. Iowa 31, Wisconsin 30.

Next week's games:

Penn State @ Michigan: Key to UM's dreams of a good bowl is winning this game
Iowa @ Michigan State: Promises to be another wild shootout
Indiana @ Northwestern: Cats want revenge; IU kept them from Capital One Bowl last season
Minnesota @ Ohio State: Another week of Buckeye target practice?
Illinois @ Purdue: The Illini's last shot at victory?

Pickin' on the Big Ten: Teams for Sale originally appeared on NCAA Football FanHouse on Thu, 15 Oct 2009 10:30:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Illinois Finds Another Way to Lose, This Time to Michigan State

Mark Hasty — Sat, 10 Oct 2009 15:15:00 EST

Filed under: Illinois, Michigan State

Back to the old drawing board. Ron Zook's plan to spark the Illinois offense by benching quarterback Juice Williams in favor of backup Eddie McGee didn't exactly yield the desired results Saturday as the Illini fell to Michigan State, 24-14.

McGee was ineffective, going 2-for-11 for just 32 yards and an interception before being pulled in the third quarter. Williams came in to relieve McGee. He wasn't a world-beater, but Williams was just enough better to get the Illini on the board.

As for Michigan State, for the first time all season, it played just one quarterback until garbage time.
Keith Nichol got the start over Kirk Cousins, who had started every game thus far this season. Nichol led the Spartans to a 24-0 lead early in the third quarter.

That was when Zook pulled McGee in favor of Williams and the Illini started to move the ball. Illinois scored 14 unanswered points after that but it was just too late.

Both teams come out of the game with concerns. Spartan running back Glenn Winston injured his knee in the first half and did not play for the remainder of the game. Quarterback Keith Nichol dislocated his non-throwing elbow in the fourth quarter.

For Illinois, the biggest concern is the continued poor tackling by the defense. Several times short gains turned into big plays due to a failure to wrap up the ball carrier.

Illinois travels to Indiana next week. Michigan State will play the sputtering Northwestern Wildcats in East Lansing.

Illinois Finds Another Way to Lose, This Time to Michigan State originally appeared on NCAA Football FanHouse on Sat, 10 Oct 2009 15:15:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Pickin' On the Big Ten: Is the Peter Principle Making Illinois Ill?

Mark Hasty — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 11:30:00 EST

Filed under: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, Wisconsin

Every Thursday, Pickin' On the Big Ten stays late to run the TPS reports on the coming weekend's games.

In a hierarchy every employee tends to rise to his or her level of incompetence.

The above statement is better known as the Peter Principle, and if it doesn't make sense to you, join the club. I didn't get it the first 1,378 times I read it. Now I recognize it for what it is. It's an overly intellectual way of saying "People who do a good job keep getting promoted until they wind up in a job they can't do."

So what does this have to do with Illinois, you ask?

Oh, come on. Like you don't know I'm writing about Ron Zook.

Look, I don't mean to pass judgment on Ron Zook the person. That's not my place at all. I don't even intend to pass judgment on whether Ron Zook can coach football or not. He obviously can; you don't rise to his level without having some coaching chops, after all. I'm just questioning whether he's actually meant to be a head coach.

On the surface that sounds ridiculous. Rip his name off the top of his resume and ask me if you would have hired him. He was personally associated with one of the best college football programs of the 1990s, serving on the staff of a coach widely thought to be at the top of his profession. Not only that, but he also had significant experience in the NFL, where he worked with Bill Cowher. Other coaches he had worked for? Try Johnny Majors and Frank Beamer.

Along the way he earned a reputation as one of college football's most energetic and tenacious recruiters. Was Florida nuts to give him the head coaching job back in 2002?

Well, sort of, given that he'd never been head coach anywhere at any level. Head coaching isn't the same as position coaching or coordinating. Not every great coordinator pans out as a head coach. Not every great head coach would make a good coordinator or position coach. They're just different skills.

Problem was, there was no place for Zook to go except into the head coaching ranks.

Three years later, was Illinois nuts to give Ron Zook the head coaching job? Not really. There just wasn't enough of a body of work available to judge his talents. He lost too many games, but the expectations in Gainesville were flying higher than Michael Crabtree's self-image. He did manage to win three straight road games against top-11 teams, and he beat 13-win teams in back-to-back seasons. Not everything was bad.

Now, well, we sort of know. He had one great season in which he got the Illini to the Rose Bowl. Otherwise, it looks like "head coach" is not the best job title for Zook to pursue. Give him a title like "assistant head coach and recruiting coordinator," then pair him up with some charm-free Xs-and-Os genius of a head coach. In that role Zook's worth at least $300,000 a year. But as a head coach? Not really. He's reached the level of his incompetence.

Right. The games.

MICHIGAN STATE @ ILLINOIS

Speaking of the Peter Principle, could it also apply to Zook's star recruit of all star recruits, Juice Williams?

You could make the case. As a freshman Williams showed incredible promise coupled with maddening inconsistency. As a sophomore who was just one of many weapons in the arsenal, he helped lead the Illini to the Rose Bowl. As a junior who had to carry water for the offense while the defense put the hurt on people, he was marginal. Now, as the only real playmaker on a team that was allegedly loaded with them, he's been benched.

As Williams' role got bigger, he was less and less able to meet expectations. Zook now won't even say how he's going to use Williams, except that he won't line up at running back or wide receiver. My opinion? Juice went to his coach and said, "Look, this season's lost, and I realize now I'll probably never play quarterback in the NFL. But maybe I can still make it to the pros. Give me a chance to run back kicks; maybe I'm the next Joshua Cribbs."

Given the way Illinois' defense is playing, and the way Michigan State's offense is playing, then if that's what Wiliams wants, he's going to get a good start on his highlight reel this week. Michigan State 38, Illinois 20.

INDIANA @ VIRGINIA

Virginia: Awful, despite beating North Carolina last week.

Indiana: Not awful, despite losing to Ohio State last week. Indiana 20, Virginia 6.

MICHIGAN @ IOWA

We could've had a real Game of the Century of the Week on our hands, but no, the Wolverines had to lose to Sparty last weekend. Tate Forcier can blame himself all he wants to, but no team comes down to just one guy, and no game ever really comes down to just one play. You still can't win in the Big Ten without a pretty good defense, and Michigan does not yet have one.

Of course, you can't win without an offense either, and you could argue that Iowa still doesn't have one. At the risk of negating everything I said in the previous paragraph, Arkansas State showed the best way to defend against the Hawkeyes: stuff the run and make Ricky Stanzi throw a lot. In the first half of last week's game, this looked like a profoundly stupid strategy. In the second half, it almost worked. I still think a team is a lot more than one guy, but 24 points isn't going to beat Michigan. If Stanzi comes out cold or falters for a quarter, the Hawks could easily lose this game, Kinnick Stadium magic or not.

Then again, Michigan hasn't faced a defense close to as good as the one it's about to face. Iowa 28, Michigan 26.

PURDUE @ MINNESOTA

Attention Purdue fans: Since I'm batting .000 when it comes to calling out coaches (the three I've called out this season have all won every game since), I want you to know that I'm now accepting offers to make Danny Hope the lead of next week's Pickin'.

You might not need to after this week, though. Purdue and Minnesota are basically the same team. They're both pass-wacky but can't defend the run at all. The only real difference between them? Purdue has a proven running back. Minnesota doesn't. Always go with the team that can strike at its opponent's weakness. Purdue 34, Minnesota 31.

FAKE MIAMI @ NORTHWESTERN

Fake Miami has lost 10 games in a row, all by at least 10 points.

Northwestern has been at least modestly disappointing in four of its five games this season. Last week Purdue turned the ball over six times and still came within one play of beating the Wildcats.

NU might get running back Stephen Simmons back this week. Simmons hasn't played since the second game of the season. If he does play, it will be in a limited role behind Arby Fields. I wouldn't play him, though. Why risk aggravating his injury in a game in which he probably won't be needed? Northwestern 35, Fake Miami 10.

WISCONSIN @ OHIO STATE

Ohio State has played lights out since losing to USC. It has been nothing short of dominant in its last three games. Of course, those games have been against Toledo, Illinois, and Indiana. Not exactly Murderers Row, you know?

But could you put Wisconsin on Murderers Row? Their 5-0 record would suggest that you could, and if it's possible to kill an opponent with passing, Scott Tolzien is just the man to do it. As long as John Clay can stay at the level he played at last week, there isn't a great defensive game plan to beat the Badgers.

Sometimes the best defense is a good offense, however, and OSU has one. Wisconsin, meanwhile has given up at least 20 points to every team it has played except for Wofford. The Badgers don't have the defense to go into Columbus and win, but there's a chance this could be the last time the Badgers lose this season. Ohio State 30, Wisconsin 27.

EASTERN ILLINOIS @ PENN STATE

Joe Paterno would like you to know that Eastern Illinois is a very good football team. They have a quarterback who transferred from Iowa and a running back who transferred from Michigan. They deserve nothing but the utmost respect and this is going to be a very, very tough game. People who think Penn State's nonconference schedule is a bit too soft just don't get it.

Count me among those who just don't get it. Penn State 41, Eastern Illinois 3.

Know Your Nonconference Tomato Can: Eastern Illinois

Yes, I know. Except for Wofford, this season's tomato cans have pretty much been teachers' colleges gone Hollywood. But hang on, here's one that actually sends people to Hollywood.

Located in the downstate burg of Charleston, tantalizingly close to the greater Mattoon metropolitan area, Eastern Illinois University can boast some big-name acting talent among its alumni. Three-time Oscar nominee Joan Allen has a degree from EIU, for instance. Then there's three guys who went to Eastern without graduating but still managed to make a name for themselves in Hollywood: Burl Ives, Jerry Van Dyke and John Malkovich.

But what does EIU have to do with football? Plenty. EIU is the alma mater of Dallas Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo, who is pretty Hollywood himself. He's not the only Panther to make a name in the NFL, either. Current head coaches Brad Childress (Minnesota) and Sean Payton (New Orleans) also played football for Eastern Illinois, as did long-time Raider and Bronco coach Mike Shanahan. That's not bad for a school of 12,000 students located at least two hours from anyplace.

Next week's games:

Illinois @ Indiana: Amazingly, one team is guaranteed to win
Delaware State @ Michigan: I checked; DSU actually exists
Northwestern @ Michigan State: a/k/a Disappointment Bowl II
Minnesota @ Penn State: Potential trap game for the Nits
Ohio State @ Purdue: Potential trap month for the Buckeyes
Iowa @ Wisconsin: At least there's one game worth watching

Pickin' On the Big Ten: Is the Peter Principle Making Illinois Ill? originally appeared on NCAA Football FanHouse on Thu, 08 Oct 2009 11:30:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Michigan State Upends Michigan

Chas Rich — Sat, 03 Oct 2009 18:30:00 EST

Filed under: Michigan, Michigan State, Big 10

Michigan State has its first two-game winning streak against Michigan for the first time since 1967, but the Spartans did not make it easy on themselves. Blowing a 20-6 lead with less than five minutes left in the game and needing overtime to get the win.

Michigan State's defense finally looked like a legitimate defense for most of the game. They completely held Tate Forcier and the Michigan offense in check for most of the game. While the Michigan State offense struggled at times in the first half, they began to wear down the Wolverine defense with a balanced attack along with some big miscues by Michigan. Especially a fourth-and-inches at the Michigan 16, where a fake punt failed badly.

By early in the fourth quarter, the Spartans had built a 14-point lead. At that point, Michigan State coach Mark Dantonio let loose his inner-Tressel, focusing on just trying to run out the clock. Predictably, the Spartans went three-and-out on three of the next four possessions.

Given that many chances in the fourth quarter, Michigan capitalized. They scored two touchdowns inside the final five minutes to force overtime. Michigan's freshman quarterback, Forcier, was outstanding in the final scores. He passed for 95 yards and ran for 27 more.

Forcier, though, could not complete the tremendous comeback, instead throwing a pick in the endzone off of a deflected pass on the first drive of overtime. Michigan State scored on its possession to avoid the choke job.

While it was a tremendous comeback by Michigan, and Michigan State still got the win, it should not have been that dramatic for the Spartans. The Michigan State defense had played well most of the game, but the first four games of the season clearly showed a defense that should not have been put in the position of having to keep making stops. Dantonio went conservative on the offense way too early in the fourth quarter. The Spartans predictably ran on the first two downs of three straight possessions, all to try and run the clock down, starting with more than nine minutes left in the game.

This is not the NFL. Teams should never take their foot off the gas when the game is that close.

Michigan State Upends Michigan originally appeared on NCAA Football FanHouse on Sat, 03 Oct 2009 18:30:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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College Football Saturday Live Tweet

Michael David Smith — Sat, 03 Oct 2009 12:03:00 EST

Filed under: Michigan, Michigan State

We started with the Michigan vs. Michigan State game and then we moved on to LSU-Georgia, Washington-Notre Dame and Penn State-Illinois: It's another Saturday of following all the college football action on Twitter.

I'm watching and tweeting about college football all afternoon, so if you want updates on everything going on in college football, follow along below or follow me on Twitter @MichaelDavSmith.

Twitter Updates on College Football Saturday

college football on Twitter

Previous tweets:

# Major talent. I think he's a first-round pick. RT @pudge44: Brandon Graham is earning some major NFL money today.

# Michigan State has now outgained Michigan 339-69, but three Spartan turnovers keep Michigan alive in the fourth quarter.

# Michigan State leads in total yards 315-83, first downs 18-5 at start of 4th quarter. Lead just 13-6 though.

# Michigan's Brandon Graham made one of the tackles of the year to end a Michigan State drive. He is a beast.

# Michigan's fake punt on fourth-and-inches was one of the dumbest calls I've ever seen. What were they thinking?

# Alabama fumble recovery TD makes it 21-6 before halftime. Stick a fork in Kentucky.

# Tremendous drive by Alabama, from inside their own 1-yard line to a TD. Greg McElroy was outstanding. I spoke too soon.

# Ugly offense in Kentucky: Wildcats QB Mike Hartline 4-of-8, 28 yds, 1 INT. Alabama QB Greg McElroy 3-of-8, 4 yds.

# Michigan State up 10-6 at halftime. Spartans have controlled game to a greater extent than that score would imply.

# Kentucky hanging tough and playing ball control with Alabama, down just 7-6 at the end of the first quarter.

# @TheBigLead Eric Decker will go late 1st or early 2nd round of the NFL draft. Don't count on getting him in 3rd or 4th.

# Minnesota WR Eric Decker ran a great fade route in the end zone, scored for the Gophers. Excellent route runner.

# Michigan State marches down the field with a methodical 16-play drive, scores 1-yd TD on fourth-and-goal. MSU 7-3.

# Mich St WR Keshawn Martin had a beautiful 18-yard run on an end-around...And then MSU got a 15-yard late hit penalty

# Michigan has minus-5 yards of total offense but still takes a 3-0 lead after interception on MSU opening drive

College Football Saturday Live Tweet originally appeared on NCAA Football FanHouse on Sat, 03 Oct 2009 12:03:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Pickin' On the Big Ten: Wake Me Up When Spartember Ends

Mark Hasty — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 19:00:00 EST

Filed under: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Big 10

Every Thursday, Pickin' On the Big Ten tries to make sense out of the upcoming weekend's games.

It was not supposed to be like this for Mark Dantonio and the Michigan State Spartans. Sure, they lost in the Capital One Bowl last season, but not by much, which is why many people tagged them as the Big Ten's third-best team going into this year. It was going to be hard to replace Brian Hoyer and Javon Ringer, but at long last things were looking up for Sparty.

Now, after a heart-shattering 1-3 start, things are still looking up, if only because "up" is the only direction left. Now it's time to pull the wreckage of this season out of the ditch to see what can be salvaged.

The news isn't all bad. There isn't an unwinnable game left on the schedule, and all the really good teams they still have to play are coming to East Lansing. The Spartans have proven they can score points, which was a huge concern in the preseason.

But ugh, that defense. Everybody's throwing on the Spartans. The numbers have got to be killing Dantonio. Try a 65.2 percent opponents' completion rate for starters. How about giving up five touchdown passes for every interception? And only 17 schools have given up more first downs on passing plays than MSU has. Fortunately, two of those schools are Western Michigan and Purdue, who are still on the schedule. A bowl game certainly isn't out of the question. Getting back to New Year's Day probably is at this point.

Is Michigan State the Big Ten's biggest disappointment of September? Probably. You could make a case for Illinois, since the Illini have been all but useless against Football Bowl Subdivision opponents. However, in order to be a disappointment, people first have to expect something of you, and I didn't expect anything from Illinois this season. Likewise, not many had Northwestern pegged as a .500 team at the end of September. I thought their defense would be a lot better than it has proven to be.

Okay, now, before we get on to the games, let me just address one little topic. A number of you have been wondering what happened to the funny team names. The guys at Black Heart Gold Pants had me as a guest on their podcast this week and asked that very question. I'll tell you what I told them. After 11 seasons of writing this column, I'm just plain out of ideas for the team names. Dropping them was nobody's decision but my own. Besides, I know they were confusing some of you.

This is where you come in.

I'll make a deal: If one of you comes up with team names for one game every week, I'll come up with names for one game as well. You can scroll down to the bottom of the page to see next week's games. Give it your best shot and send the results to me at pickbigten@gmail.com. The winner gets immortalized in the column, which is my polite way of saying that I don't have any prizes to give you.

Right. The games.

PENN STATE at ILLINOIS

For Penn State, there are two possible ways they can play in their first game after yet another season-altering loss to Iowa. They're the same two options any team has after a letdown. Option A is to recognize that the season is far from over, there are still many things to play for, and this is the first game of their undefeated last two-thirds of the season. Penn State is a team which doesn't lack leadership and talent. Ohio State can be had. They got them last year in Columbus, didn't they? With a little help from the rest of the conference, another Rose Bowl bid could be theirs. All they have to do is TCB from here on out.

Option B is to collapse in a giant cloud of fear, panic, feathers, and clucking, sort of like when a chicken truck overturns on the freeway during rush hour. This is the option Illinois appears to have chosen during the first quarter of the Missouri game.

Possessors of enough offensive firepower that they could have a seat on the UN Security Council, the Illini have scored a grand total of zero touchdowns against FBS opponents. It isn't enough to say that their passing offense, despite the presence of Juice Williams, is the worst in the Big Ten. It's the fifth-worst in the nation. Granted, they've played one few game than most teams, but who's further down the list than they are? The three service academies and Eastern Michigan.

Given these facts, what are the odds that Illinois can get anything at all done against the Big Ten's statistically-best defense? About the same as a runaway chicken's chances against six lanes of Buicks, I'd say. Penn State 28, Illinois 3

OHIO STATE at INDIANA

The last person to score on the Buckeyes was USC's Stafon Johnson, who I sincerely hope is doing well. Let us not forget that the USC game was in week two, and it's now week five.

However, I predict that the scoreless streak ends this week. Indiana's offense has really come together since their opening-night scare from Eastern Kentucky, but what is making the difference right now for the Hoosiers is the one biggest question everybody had about them in the offseason: the run defense. Of the two teams in this game, one has allowed fewer yards on the ground than the other. Ohio State is not that team.

Of course, one reason why is because IU's pass defense is a little soft. It's not bad. It just isn't great. That should help OSU improve some of their passing numbers, which are among the very worst in the Big Ten. (Wasn't Terrelle Pryor supposed to change all of that?)

The Buckeyes will learn what Michigan did last week: Indiana is no gimme. I don't think Ohio State loses this game, but you might have a hard time finding a unopened bottle of Pepto-Bismol in Columbus after this one is over. Ohio State 24, Indiana 10

ARKANSAS STATE at IOWA

Give Iowa credit: At least they're playing a good Sun Belt team.

The Red Wolves are a run-first kind of team. Tailback Reggie Arnold has scored seven touchdowns in three games and sits third among Sun Belt running backs in yards per game. Arkansas State was in a total dogfight last week with Troy, losing only because they bobbled a punt midway through the fourth quarter. That's not bad when you consider Troy outgained them by more than 200 yards. That's a testimony to the stoutness of ASU's defense, which held Nebraska to just 136 yards on the ground. It would be dangerous for Iowa to overlook the Red Wolves, particularly because the Hawkeye offense hasn't exactly been wonderful thus far.

(Seriously, Hawkeye fans, you know I'm one of you, so believe me when I say this: You do not want to go to a BCS game with this offense.)

Despite ASU's run-stopping ability, the Red Wolves have not intercepted a single pass this season. This could be a good game for Ricky Stanzi to build some confidence in the pocket, particularly since Iowa's defense is going to give him a big, big cushion to work with. As long as Iowa isn't looking ahead to next week and Michigan, they should easily win this game. Iowa 38, Arkansas State 0.

Know Your Nonconference Tomato Can: Arkansas State

Located in Jonesboro, Arkansas, atop the geological oddity known as Crowley's Ridge, Arkansas State has grown from its original role as a regional agriculture school to become a full-fledged university offering doctorates in biomedical sciences, educational leadership, environmental science, and something called "heritage studies."

With over 11,000 students, ASU is Arkansas' third-largest university and boasts a proud heritage in football. The Red Wolves (formerly the Indians) just moved up to Division I-A in 1992 but before then had already produced two players familiar to many NFL fans: New York Giants running back Maurice Carthon and linebacker Bill Bergey, who spent most of his career with the Philadelphia Eagles, went to four Pro Bowls, and was at one point the NFL's highest-paid defensive player. Other notable ASU alumni include current Arkansas governor Mike Beebe and former Miami Dolphins quarterback Cleo Lemon.

MICHIGAN at MICHIGAN STATE

Revenge Week was supposed to be last week, but go ahead. Tell Rich Rodriguez and his team. I dare you.

We've already detailed Sparty's struggles in the intro to this column. I'd like to believe that Mark Dantonio can get his team up for this game, but MSU just has too much inertia to overcome in a single week. Tate Forcier should be able to shred the Spartan secondary.

That's a good thing, because Michigan State's Two-Headed Quarterbeast ought to be able to do the same to Michigan's "is this really a Michigan defense?" defense. One of these weeks the Wolverines are not going to be able to score 30 points, and then they'll be in trouble. It won't be this week, but until the Michigan defense gets better, defeat looms in the relatively near future. So enjoy your revenge, Wolverines. Michigan 45, Michigan State 41.

WISCONSIN at MINNESOTA

Now that Minnesota has an outdoor stadium, shouldn't they be playing this game in November?

Wisconsin is a good team which could be a great team if only their defense would stop letting opponents back into games. One of these days John Clay is going to wake up and realize he's the next great Wisconsin running back, but until that day, Scott Tolzien and his cadre of overlooked receivers are more than good enough to keep the Badgers in their games. If Wisconsin can force Minnesota into using their nickel package, that should open up enough space for Clay to bring the pain.

Tim Brewster seems to have calmed down some of his playcalling aggression, so he might be able to resist the temptation to make the Badgers run the ball. If he does, he'll find plenty of cracks in the Wisconsin defense and should be able to create scoring opportunities. So, unless Tim Brewster loses his mind and sells out the run defense to stop Scott Tolzien, Bucky's inability to put an opponent on ice should finally lose a game for them. Minnesota 27, Wisconsin 24.

NORTHWESTERN at PURDUE

The first of what figures to be many Disappointment Bowls in the Big Ten this season, this game features two teams that are absolutely being let down by their defenses. That's a shame, particularly for Northwestern. They brought back one of the most experienced units in the conference, a defense that was expected to help out an offense which more or less had to start from scratch. Instead, Mike Kafka's incredible start to the season is being overshadowed by their inability to hold most teams under 24 points.

The story is much the same at Purdue, but let's not ignore the elephant in the living room. I too have no idea why Danny Hope called that time out against Notre Dame last week. Situationally, it looked like the wrong thing to do. Before you come crashing down on Hope's head, though, remember that no football game actually comes down to a single play. Games are always won and lost before the last few plays of the game, even if those last few plays wind up changing the lead. You can always find a few coulda-woulda-shouldas earlier in the game which may have changed the outcome. So cut Hope a little slack, okay? But only a little, because it sure didn't make sense to me either.

This game boils down to a question of which stinky defense can stink the least. The two offenses are essentially interchangeable, so who do you trust? I'll trust the team that didn't just lose at home by eleven points. Purdue 37, Northwestern 28.

Next week's games:

Michigan State at Illinois: A momentary reprieve for somebody
Indiana at Virginia: This could be the game that finally gets Al Groh fired
Michigan at Iowa: Front-runner for Overhyped Big Ten Game of the Year
Purdue at Minnesota: This might actually be a good game
Fake Miami at Northwestern: This, however, will not
Wisconsin at Ohio State: Buckeyes playing three trap games in a row?
Eastern Illinois atPenn State: Why? Seriously, why?

Pickin' On the Big Ten: Wake Me Up When Spartember Ends originally appeared on NCAA Football FanHouse on Wed, 30 Sep 2009 19:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Is Era of Big Ten MAC-rifice at an End?

Mark Hasty — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 02:45:00 EST

Filed under: Bowling Green, Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State, Northern Illinois, Northwestern, Toledo, Western Michigan, Big 10, MAC

Last Saturday, Northern Illinois went into West Lafayette, Ind., and beat Purdue convincingly. (Don't let the 28-21 final score fool you: NIU dominated that game from the second quarter on.) It was the Huskies' first victory over a Big Ten squad in 21 years and an important milestone for a program which was once among college football's very worst. Second-year head coach Jerry Kill has now taken his team to a bowl and knocked off one of the big boys. On the road, no less.

You'd hardly know it, however. Big wins by underdogs usually lead to an avalanche of media coverage, but NIU's historic victory sank without a trace. Why?

Because it's not news anymore when a MAC team beats a Big Ten squad.

For decades, the "MACrifice" has been one of Big Ten football's most endearing rituals. Some Saturday in September, a school with a direction or a city in its name would come to one of the conference's football temples and walk out bloodied after a 66-0 beatdown. The win would give the coaches a chance to work all the way through the depth chart and served as a final tuneup before the conference season began.

But why the MAC? Well, because they were there. The MAC's geographic footprint fits almost perfectly into the Big Ten's, and the MAC schools needed the money. Hence the uneasy big brother-little brother relationship between the two conferences.

Funny thing about little brothers. They grow up. Sometimes they grow bigger than their big brothers. Even if they don't, though, they always know just the right buttons to press to get the big brother's hackles up.

The MAC will never be a bigger football conference than the Big Ten, but the two conferences aren't as far apart as you might think. The largest MAC schools, like Kent State, Buffalo and Central Michigan, have larger enrollments than the Big Ten's smallest schools, Northwestern and Iowa. The states of Ohio and Pennsylvania are rich with prep football talent, and they can't all become Buckeyes, Nittany Lions, Bearcats or Panthers. Dreaming of the NFL? There are eight former Northern Illinois Huskies and eight former Kent State Golden Flashes on NFL rosters. Indiana and Northwestern each have only nine former players currently in the NFL.

Where the MAC schools can't compete is in terms of facilities and budgets. The Big Ten schools simply have more cash all the way around, even to fund academics. In terms of endowments, the MAC's wealthiest school (Buffalo) is more than a quarter billion dollars behind the Big Ten's least wealthy school (Iowa).

This just makes it all the more surprising to find out, as I did, that every Big Ten school has lost to a MAC school at least once. Granted, if you play enough games against any conference, no matter how weak, they're going to rack up a couple upsets along the way. The MAC's all-time record against the Big Ten, as of the end of last season, stood at a dismal 47-300-8. (That's a .143 winning percentage.) The tide has turned, though, and in case you forgot, here are the MAC's five biggest victories over the Big Ten in the past decade:

1. 2008: Toledo 13, Michigan 10. This game is notable for several reasons. First, Michigan was the only remaining Big Ten school which had never lost a game to the MAC. (Giant technicality: Ohio State's only MAC loss was to Akron in 1894. That predates not only the MAC but also the Big Ten.) Second, it showed how far Michigan had slipped. Third, even though the Rockets won in the Big House, it still wasn't enough to save coach Tom Amstutz's job. Imagine that. You beat Michigan in Ann Arbor and still get run off. That proved it was no longer any big deal for a MAC school to beat a Big Ten school.

2. 2007: Western Michigan 28, Iowa 19. The Hawkeyes came into this game 6-5, needing a win to lock up bowl eligibility for the seventh straight season. Western Michigan was having a flat-out bad year, coming into Iowa City with a 3-7 record. Hawkeye fans came to the game with the travel agency's phone number in their pockets, ready to book a trip to whatever bowl game their team would be going to after dispatching this MAC tomato can.

In the twinkling of an eye, the Broncos were up 19-0 as they scored on four of their first five possessions. The Iowa offense, meanwhile, moved slower than a Steely Dan album track. At halftime, the Hawkeyes had only six first downs and six points. The Hawkeyes wound up staying home for the holidays.

3. 2003: Bowling Green 28, Northwestern 24. Only twice in its history has the Little Caesar's Pizza Bowl (formerly the Motor City Bowl) produced its intended MAC-versus-Big Ten matchup. This was the first time, as a Bowling Green program in its first season without Urban Meyer prevailed over a Northwestern team making its second bowl appearance under Randy Walker. This was a true nail-biter with the lead and the momentum going back and forth until Bowling Green took it for good with just four minutes to play.

4. 2008: Western Michigan 23, Illinois 17. This game, played at Ford Field in Detroit, was a must-win for the Illini. Ron Zook's team was 5-4 coming into this one. A loss would mean having to beat either Ohio State or Northwestern just to become bowl eligible. Illinois certainly didn't play like they needed to win, though, with Juice Williams throwing two interceptions and the team going an almost-unbeliveable 1-13 on third down conversions. The Illini were down 20-7 at the half, lost the game, lost their next two games and wound up not going to a bowl just one season after going to the Rose Bowl.

5, 2009: Central Michigan 29, Michigan State 27. Sure, it's too early to tell if Michigan State is just really bad this season, but this was the MAC's first victory over a team expected to contend for the Big Ten title. The hype was huge surrounding the Spartans coming into this season. This game proved that Michigan State had some serious issues and Mark Dantonio had not yet removed all traces of Sparty-ness from his team's system. Coupled with a loss to Notre Dame the following week, it now looks like MSU will have to fight just to make it to a bowl game this season.

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Is Era of Big Ten MAC-rifice at an End? originally appeared on NCAA Football FanHouse on Fri, 25 Sep 2009 02:45:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Pickin' On the Big Ten: V for Vendetta

Mark Hasty — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 09:45:00 EST

Filed under: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, Wisconsin

Every Thursday, Pickin' On the Big Ten previews the weekend's action, settling the scores before the scores are settled.

Penn State has declared that Saturday night's game with Iowa will be a "whiteout" game. That distinction is usually reserved for games of the utmost importance, and if you don't know why this game is so important to the Nittany Lions, you must not remember what happened last year in Iowa City. A Daniel Murray field goal put the Hawkeyes on top and ended any hopes Penn State had of ~~getting blown out by Florida~~ playing in the BCS National Championship Game. It's time for revenge.

Penn State, however, is not the only Big Ten team with a little revenge on its mind this weekend.

In Columbus, Ohio State has a score to settle with Illinois. The last time the Illini came to Columbus, back in 2007, Ron Zook's unranked team knocked off the No. 1 Buckeyes, 28-21. The loss didn't prevent Ohio State from ~~getting beat by LSU~~ playing in the BCS National Championship Game but it was an unwelcome humiliation that exposed some weaknesses. Would the Buckeyes like to exact revenge on the wobbling Illini? You don't need a Magic 8 Ball to tell you the answer.

Elsewhere in the conference, several teams aren't looking to settle old scores but do find themselves with things to prove. There's even another matchup of undefeated teams and oh boy, did we not see this one coming.

INDIANA @ MICHIGAN

The last time the Hoosiers beat the Wolverines was in 1987. That's a long time ago. The last time they beat the Wolverines in Ann Arbor was twenty years before then, in 1967. Jimi Hendrix was still alive; Kurt Cobain was seven months old.

After an eye-wateringly bad performance against Eastern Kentucky in the season opener, Bill Lynch's team has turned a corner of sorts, beating Western Michigan in a thriller and going on the road to Akron to win in an impressive performance last Saturday. The Hoosiers have installed a triple-threat running attack like they said they wanted to, but most impressive has been IU's improvement on defense.

Michigan, meanwhile, you know about. They didn't need any dramatics to beat that same Western Michigan team. They got a clutch win against Notre Dame, and they roughed up Eastern Michigan, who gave Northwestern more fight than the Wildcats were hoping for. They're off to a great start as well.

I'd like to think that Indiana has a real shot in this game. The improved defense along with a running game that is just starting to roll will probably make this game a little closer than Michigan partisans will be hoping for and may cause some reassessment of just how far "back" the Wolverines have come. However, the Hoosiers just haven't faced an offense with the kind of firepower Michigan can bring. As long as the Wolverines don't screw themselves over with turnovers and penalties, they should get some separation on IU in the second half. Michigan 34, Indiana 17.

MINNESOTA @ NORTHWESTERN

Northwestern lost to Syracuse last week. That could be my whole preview for this game.

Okay, so Syracuse doesn't look quite as dreadful this season as they have in recent years. It's kind of sad, though, that Northwestern's defense got caught in the lurch as many times as it did last week. That effectively negated a truly amazing performance by NU quarterback Mike Kafka, who was darn near brilliant last week (35 of 42 for 390 yards; 3 TDs against 1 INT, plus a touchdown reception). Still, how do you hold a team to 2 of 12 on third down, as Northwestern did last week, and still let the Orange get in position for a game-winning field goal? Northwestern has a lot of growing to do on defense.

Minnesota lost last week as well but it wasn't a bad loss, as if any loss was ever good. They hung with California, a legitimate top-ten team in my eyes, well into the fourth quarter. If Jahvid Best hadn't been in the game the Gophers might easily have won.

So far Tim Brewster's efforts to reestablish Minnesota as a rushing team haven't exactly panned out. The Gophers haven't rushed for more than 112 yards in any game and were held to just 37 yards last week by Cal. Good. Less running means more passing, which means more Eric Decker, which means more times when we all wonder how this guy slipped under so many radar screens when he was in high school. It's hard to think of a college team Decker would not start for.

Northwestern's faltering defense leaves the offense with little margin for error. That's not such a good thing when you're facing a team which just had to deal with the best running back in the country. NU will have to throw to beat the Gophers, but then, Mike Kafka is coming off an incredible week of throwing the ball and the Minnesota secondary can be beaten. This game could turn into a shootout; if it does, I think that favors the Gophers. Minnesota 38, Northwestern 31.

ILLINOIS @ OHIO STATE

As previously mentioned, Ohio State has a score to settle with Illinois. Nobody comes into the Horseshoe and wins without becoming a target. Some targets the Buckeyes can't hit; some they can. Illinois? Very hittable.

The Illini have only played two games, losing big to Missouri and having an easy time with Illinois State prior to taking last week off. Juice Williams was hurt early in the Illinois State game but is expected back. He hasn't attempted a pass since September 5, and that might be a bigger concern.

Meanwhile, Arrelious Benn is expected to return from the high ankle sprain he suffered against Missouri. Rejus has caught only one pass this season. Look for him to be a much larger part of the offense this week, assuming he's healthy.

Illinois will also have to do without middle linebacker Martez Wilson, lost for the season with a neck injury. Wilson was expected to anchor the Illinois defense but had come under criticism in some corners for not being aggressive enough, particularly in tackling. Regardless, Wilson would have helpful in defending against Terrelle Pryor's mobility, so he'll be missed.

As for Ohio State, they certainly worked out their frustrations against Toledo last week, blanking the Rockets 38-0. By now Jim Tressel probably has his team's confidence back at an acceptable level. Blowing up Illinois would go a long, long way towards getting the Buckeye swagger back. With Illinois having questions on defense and injuries on offense, and Ohio State looking for payback, well, kaboom. Ohio State 31, Illinois 10.

IOWA @ PENN STATE

I don't care that Keith Jackson is 80 years old and retired. He should be broadcasting this game. It's his sort of game. Two teams known for the strength, size and prowess of their "big uglies," two teams with quite a recent history between them, the two longest-tenured coaches in the conference, going at each other in the first game of the conference season in front of the whole nation. That's a situation that just calls for Keith Jackson. Plus there's at least a slight chance we'd get to hear Keith say the name "Derrell Johnson-Koulianos." How brain-flipping awesome would that be? Answer: very.

These two teams are known for the stoutness of their defenses, and that's where all the intrigue will be in this game. The outcome will depend on which team can force the other team's offense to do something it really doesn't want to do, before that offense forces the defense out of its comfort zone.

For instance, Iowa has been almost impossible to pass on so far this season. If Penn State can find a way to move the ball through the air, that should open up the running lanes for Evan Royster and his backfield brethren. But if the Hawkeyes can make it clear that Daryll Clark's passing isn't going to beat them, they'll have the luxury of selling out to stop the run and watching Penn State go three-and-out over and over again.

On the other hand, Iowa really doesn't want to run the ball. I mean, they want to run the ball, but they know they're not experienced and haven't faced a front seven like Penn State's. Penn State can probably leave eight in the box and keep the Hawkeyes from going anywhere.

Thus we have the key to success for each offense. Penn State needs to attack Iowa's known liability, the underneath crossing routes. The sooner they force Iowa to keep a linebacker back from the line of scrimmage, the sooner Evan Royster can really start pounding the rock. Iowa needs essentially the same thing. If they force the Nits to leave a fourth man in coverage, their two-tailback scheme might soften up and confuse that front seven. Even though the strength of each defense is different, the strategy for moving the ball is essentially the same and the first team to get the passing game going will have a huge advantage.

That is not good news for the Hawkeyes. Ricky Stanzi plays like Peyton Manning in the second half of games, but in the first half he plays like Ryan Leaf. You hate to think that a team's chances in a game this big come down to one guy, but if Stanzi comes out as cold as he's come out in every game this season, Iowa doesn't have much of a chance. Daryll Clark and his cadre of disrespected wideouts will find a crack or two in the Hawkeye pass defense, but it won't be easy.

Stanzi has never started in a road game this big before and no, the Iowa State game doesn't count. I'm not saying I don't believe in him; I'm just saying I don't trust him to come out firing on all cylinders. Penn State 20, Iowa 17.

NOTRE DAME @ PURDUE

"I don't think anybody has an answer for Ralph Bolden," I wrote last week. Well, Northern Illinois sure did, holding Purdue's leading rusher to just 64 yards on 12 carries. What was their secret? Ball control. Bolden can't rush the ball if he's not on the field.

Notre Dame figures to go to the running game a little more often this week now that Michael Floyd has been lost for the season. Their run defense will have to improve somewhat if they want to keep this from being too much of a game. The Irish allowed both Nevada's Vai Taua and Michigan's Brandon Minor to go over 100 yards. If Bolden gets even a sniff of that sort of success, the Boilermakers could make it an uncomfortable afternoon for Charlie Weis.

Purdue can't win this game, however. They don't have the defense to slow down the Irish, who have far more talent than they do. The Boilers can make a game of it, perhaps even through three quarters, but Jimmy Clausen is just getting too good. Notre Dame 34, Purdue 24.

MICHIGAN STATE @ WISCONSIN

Technically every game is a "must-win" for both teams, but man, Michigan State needs a win in the worst way. Back-to-back soulcrushing losses have many people writing the Spartans off. And why not? No one in East Lansing is happy with how the team has looked this year. Some fans are even turning on starting quarterback Kirk Cousins. Yes, he's only hitting on 65.7 percent of his passes with five touchdowns and one interception. Clearly, he's the problem. Can't be the league's second-worst running offense and absolute worst pass defense.

Wisconsin, meanwhile, is 3-0 but hasn't been impressive in any of its victories. Not even last week's scheduled beatdown of Wofford. The Badgers fumbled the ball six times against the Terriers and are lucky they only lost three of them. A better question, though, is why they're running the ball so much. Sure, they're Wisconsin, and that's what they do. They're not doing it as well as they used to, however. And what is this, a Wisconsin quarterback who can actually throw the ball well? Yes, that would be Scott Tolzien, currently second in QB rating among Big Ten starting quarterbacks. Who is he behind? You guessed it. Kirk Cousins. How dare he only lead the conference by 2.5 rating points!

Generally speaking it's a bad idea to pick a desperate, struggling team in a must-win game on the road. I think I'll stick to that logic. Wisconsin 27, Michigan State 26.

Next week's games:

Penn State @ Illinois: Trap game?
Ohio State @ Indiana: Definitely not a trap game
Arkansas State @ Iowa: A little bread and circus for the masses
Michigan @ Michigan State : Speaking of vendettas
WIsconsin @ Minnesota: A better game than you think
Northwestern @ Purdue: Fighting to stay alive in the race for Detroit

Pickin' On the Big Ten: V for Vendetta originally appeared on NCAA Football FanHouse on Thu, 24 Sep 2009 09:45:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Luck of Irish Turns, Even if Killer Instinct Doesn't Turn Up

John Walters — Sat, 19 Sep 2009 22:40:00 EST

Filed under: Michigan State, Notre Dame, Daily Domer

If the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different outcome, then Notre Dame -- and its fans -- came within one overthrown pass of dementia on Saturday.

The Irish beat Michigan State, 33-30, in a game that felt awfully similar to Michigan one week ago. And Pittsburgh and Syracuse last season. And Navy in 2007.

Notre Dame won a close one for the first time in some time on Saturday, and in many ways it feels less like a victory than a stay of execution for Charlie Weis. While actual buzzards were not circling Notre Dame Stadium, a plane pulling a banner that read "weisinternship.com" was.

"We're aware of the situation," said safety Kyle McCarthy, who snuffed out Michigan State's upset bid--and at least 10,000 "Fire Charlie!" text messages--with his interception at the Irish four yard-line in the final minute. "Coach Weis is our guy. We're completely behind him."

The guys in the gold helmets may be, but it isn't as if Weis has the same backup as, say, the "Can you hear me now?" dude. From the tailgaters to the press box to the message boards to the ESPN "College Gameday" desk ("This is the most pressure-packed game of Charlie Weis' career at Notre Dame," Kirk Herbstreit said earlier on Saturday), Coach Weis death panels are springing up all over. The problem is not that the Irish are inept -- although they have been that the past two seasons -- it's just that they so rarely seem to impose their will on teams.

At the Friday evening pep rally, associate head coach Corwin Brown spoke. A former NFL defensive back whose motor revs much higher than that of his boss, Brown spoke to the throng with evangelical vigor. "My mom used to say, 'You never kick a man when he's down', and I love my mom," said Brown, referring to the fact that Michigan State had suffered a heart-breaking loss of its own last week.

"But my dad used to say, 'That's the best time to kick him'."

The audience roared.

And then one day later, yet again, the Irish forgot to pack their steel-toed boots for the game. The most befuddling thing about the Irish is that, as Herbstreit also noted, "they can't get out of their own way."

Against Michigan State, as they have so often done against inferior opponents the past 15 or so games, the Irish started out crisply. Quarterback Jimmy Clausen was nine-for-nine passing in the first quarter as he staked the Irish to a 13-3 lead.

Then, early in the second quarter, Weis called for a Wildcat formation (not, it should be noted, for the first time). Tailback Armando Allen handed off to Golden Tate, who swept around the right side with intentions of throwing a deep ball to ... Clausen.

Allen was dropped for a 1-yard loss. On the ensuing three plays, the Irish committed a false start followed by a holding penalty followed by Clausen being sacked for the first time this season. Sooner than you could say, "Is it 2007?", Notre Dame faced a fourth-and-36. Worse, and as happened too many times of late, the Irish had squandered their momentum and faced a crisis of confidence.

Kick a man when he's down? The Irish shanked it. Again.

Taking the myopic view, this Saturday's victory looked disturbingly similar to last Saturday's loss.

"The final drive?" said McCarthy, who leads the Irish in both tackles and interceptions and is somthing of an anomaly on this team: consistently reliable. "Yes, it did (seem similar to last week). It was freakishly similar. We were all aware of it."

Up until McCarthy's game-clinching interception with 57 seconds remaining, the two games had a "Strange but True" degree of indistinguishability. Both teams scored in the 30s. There were four lead changes. Irish wideout Michael Floyd fell out of bounds on a potential touchdown catch on the right side of the end zone and was lost for the day. The Irish, facing a third-and-long on a potential clock-expiring drive, attempt a pass to the right sideline to a sophomore wideout (i.e., freshman in terms of eligibility; last week, Deion Walker and today, John Goodman) who entered the day with zero career receptions. On the Michigan school's ensuing game-winning drive, the first-year starter at quarterback morphs into Joe Montana. Weis's secretary is named --

Stop it. Stop it. Stop it!

Michigan State. Pittsburgh. Syracuse. Navy. College students are remarkably resilient, for as the Spartans drove toward the Notre Dame student section in the waning minutes, it appeared as if the devoted Domers were going to have yet another front-row view of faith being put to the test.

With the ball on the Irish 26, Spartan quarterback Kirk Cousins threw a sideline pass that dribbled through the fingers of Irish nickelback Ray Herring and into those of Michigan State's B.J. Cunningham, who made a beautiful grab falling out of bounds. At that fellow Spartan wideout Blair White looked at the Notre Dame sideline and boasted, "That's what we do, boy!"

And giving up game-winning touchdowns right in front of the student section, well, that's what the Irish do. Oh, boy.

On the following play, Cousins overthrew Larry Caper in the corner of the end zone. The Irish secondary blew their assignment--cornerback Robert Blanton failed to notice that Brown had changed the coverage-- and no one was within ten yards of Caper. That play may very well have been the coup de grace of Weis' career in South Bend.

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BATON ROUGE, LA - SEPTEMBER 19: Terrance Toliver #80 of the Louisiana State University Tigers is tackled by Dwight Bentley #5 of the University of Louisiana-Lafatette Ragin' Cajuns at Tiger Stadium on September 19, 2009 in Baton Rouge, Louisiana. (Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images) *** Local Caption *** Terrance Toliver;Dwight Bentley

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Instead, on the following play, thanks to a fierce rush from linebacker Darius Fleming, Cousins tossed the pick that saved the game, the season and perhaps their coach's job.

Pete Carroll may have lost to a Washington team that finished 0-12 on Saturday, but somehow an Irish loss at home might have played out more ignominiously in the national press. Why? Because as obvious as it is that the Irish players have improved, it seems that they have come no closer to learning how to win.
And we will not even begin to broach the topic of how much more difficult that's going to be with Floyd out of the lineup for likely the next month with, as Weis said, a "clavicle".

Perhaps this was a turning point. Notre Dame, for the first time in eight tries, found a way to come from behind in the second half and win a game. They had not done that since the 2008 season-opener versus San Diego State.

"That's what I was telling the receivers at halftime (after Floyd's injury)," said Clausen, who turns 22 on Monday. "It's your time to step up."

Tell everyone, Jimmy.

Luck of Irish Turns, Even if Killer Instinct Doesn't Turn Up originally appeared on NCAA Football FanHouse on Sat, 19 Sep 2009 22:40:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Pickin' On the Big Ten: Jim Tressel Is Not On the Hot Seat

Mark Hasty — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 21:00:00 EST

Filed under: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Big 10

Every Thursday, Pickin' On the Big Ten previews the weekend's action, or lack thereof.

There are weeks when many of us would trade lives with Jim Tressel. This is not one of those weeks.

Not only did his Buckeyes fail to finish USC when they had the Trojans on the ropes, Tressel also saw "Tresselball" ripped apart by Chris Brown of Smart Football, faced a fan base who want him fired three days ago, had to lash back at some of those same fans, discovered that one of USC's touchdowns may not have happened, and now he has to face a Toledo team that just mashed Colorado into goo.

Yes, there are a lot of reasons why you wouldn't want to be Jim Tressel this week, but "because he's on the hot seat" isn't one of them.

Here is what you have to do to stay off the hot seat at OSU: beat Michigan, and win the Big Ten a lot. Yes, these big-game losses sting, but all is forgotten in the October haze of thrashing all the Big Ten's darkhorse contenders.

Conversely, what do you have to do to get fired in Columbus? You must either (A) lose three or more games eight seasons in a row like Earle Bruce did, (B) lose to Michigan 10 times in 13 tries like John Cooper did, or (C) punch out a Clemson linebacker like Woody Hayes did.

It's hard to imagine Jim Tressel punching anybody, so let's forget about that. At Tressel's current rate of losing to Michigan once every eight years, he'll need until 2079 just to lose to them ten times. He'll have to go the Earle Bruce route before he gets canned. Even then it'll take until 2016 at the earliest.

Maybe Ohio State fans are cursing themselves, and their team, with low expectations. Maybe they're just realistic about what they can expect. Who knows? Bucknuts will be happy to tell you that they're the most dominant team in the Big Ten, even if the rest of the college football world thinks that's like saying you're the best-looking person at the truck stop. Pride is pride, and as long as there's something to brag about, everything is fine in Columbus.

Now, on to the games.

INDIANA @ AKRON

The Hoosiers finally got their ground game going against Western Michigan last week, with Demetrius McCray running for 134 yards and a touchdown. Now they're off to Akron as the first big-name opponent in the Zips' new InfoCision Stadium. Akron was pretty much useless against Penn State in the season opener but responded by blowing up Morgan State last weekend. Indiana is a little bit closer to Morgan State's level than it is to Penn State's level, but the Hoosiers should still be good enough to pull off the road win. Indiana 23, Akron 17.

ARIZONA @ IOWA

If you're only going to watch one Big Ten game this weekend, this should be it. On the face of things it looks like a total yawner: two defense-oriented teams, one with an offensive identity (Arizona), one without (Iowa). Sounds like a formula for a 7-6 punting festival, and that's how this could turn out.

There's tremendous backstory involving Arizona coach Mike Stoops, a former Hawkeye defensive back who had to coach for his job last season and succeeded. He and his little brother Mark, who is Arizona's defensive coordinator, now come back to Iowa City to try to get a signature road win for their ascending program.

Dee Stoops, mother of the Stoops brothers, is making the trip to Iowa City. Back in the 1980s, the Stoops family used to park their car at Kirk Ferentz's house on game days. I'm guessing that probably won't happen now; from what I gather, it's quite a walk from Kirk's new digs to Kinnick Stadium.

The Hawkeyes don't lose many games at Kinnick these days. Arizona is a solid team that just needs a little more offense, but you can ask Central Michigan about the Arizona defense. The Chippewas didn't get a touchdown on their trip to Tucson; East Lansing proved a bit friendlier.

Arizona has struggled to establish a passing game. Iowa is not the team you want to try to establish a passing game against. What Amari Spievey doesn't shut down, Tyler Sash and Brett Greenwood will intercept. Zona should stop Iowa's fragile rushing attack, but Ricky Stanzi is far more likely to get a hot hand than Arizona's Matt Scott. Welcome back, Mike; sorry things couldn't be more accomodating. Iowa 17, Arizona 10.

EASTERN MICHIGAN @ MICHIGAN

The Wolverines' stay in the top 25 could be short-lived if they can't beat EMU more convincingly than Northwestern did last week. NU needed a last-second field goal to beat Ron English's crew, who seem intent on letting everybody know they're tired of getting kicked around.

The Eagles haven't faced anything like what they're going to see from Rich Rodriguez's offense. Army is an option team, and they beat the Eagles. Northwestern is still rebuilding its offense, and they beat the Eagles. Michigan is getting pretty good at the spread option and, well, they're going to beat the Eagles too. Michigan 45, Eastern Michigan 7.

MICHIGAN STATE @ NOTRE DAME

I thought Mark Dantonio had made the Spartan's trademark Nonconference Brain Fart Game a thing of the past, but I guess not. Cultural change is a gradual process, after all.

The good news for Michigan State is that the old Bobby Williams/John L. Smith Spartans almost always followed up their annual Nonconference Brain Fart Game with a game where they played at near-apocalyptic levels of intensity. They will need that in South Bend against a Notre Dame crew eager to prove that they might belong in the top 25 after all.

This will be the best defense Michigan State has faced this season, though truthfully, Notre Dame's offense is probably on a par with Central Michigan's. That's not to say the ND offense is weak; CMU just has a pretty good offense. I've always had confidence in Mark Dantonio's ability to coach up a defense, but I'm a little less sure after MSU couldn't get big stops when they really needed them.

Nobody really wants to admit that Jimmy Clausen is getting better week by week, but he is. His experience will be the difference in this game. Notre Dame 28, Michigan State 24.

CALIFORNIA @ MINNESOTA

One week after it opened, TCF Bank Stadium gets its first big game. California is coming to town, bringing its scary good running back Jahvid Best. This is not what a team that beat Syracuse by a field goal really wants to see. Factor in that Cal has dropped half a hundred on both of its first two opponents (Maryland and Eastern Washington) and it's pretty hard to imagine Minnesota even coming close in this game.

But ... do you believe in TCF magic? Do you think the football gods will smile on the Gophers for going back outside, where football is meant to be played? Do you think Nate Triplett can play out of his mind once again and frustrate the usually reliable Cal offense? Do you think that a team which held Air Force under to 261 yards of rushing can do the same to Jahvid Best? Do you think that maybe, just maybe, the need to defend their new stadium will motivate the Gophers to shock the world and beat a top ten team?

Yeah, I don't think so either. I do think they'll hold the Bears under 50, though. California 38, Minnesota 13.

NORTHWESTERN @ SYRACUSE

So far Syracuse has played more Big Ten games than any Big Ten team has. This will be their third, and it's actually hard to predict what's going to happen here. It wouldn't have been so hard if Northwestern had been able to take care of business against Eastern Michigan last week. The Wildcats looked like anything but a great team last week, however.

Not only that but -- get this -- Syracuse actually scored a touchdown on Penn State last week. Sure, it was late and against the scrubs, but the fact that it happened at all represents considerable progress from last season.

It's still not enough, though. Northwestern should ride its running game straight into, and out of, the Carrier Dome. Northwestern 34, Syracuse 10.

OHIO STATE "@" TOLEDO (game played at Cleveland)

You've already had enough talk about Tresselball this week, and so have I. So let's talk about Toledo and their chances of running with the Buckeyes. Through two games, the Rockets are averaging more than 550 yards of offense and 34.5 points per game. Toledo quarterback Aaron Opelt has already thrown for almost 750 yards with a TD/INT ratio of 7/2.

This performance has come against Purdue, who has some serious defensive issues, and Colorado, whose defense is a figment of Dan Hawkins' imagination. More to the point, Toledo has given up almost 500 yards a game as well. Purdue's offense is clicking and Colorado's isn't quite as terrible as you might think, while Ohio State has looked like a team with some work to do.

Here's a good chance for them to do that work. This won't be a big enough blowout to placate all the Ohio State fans, but it should put an end to Aaron Opelt's Heisman campaign. Ohio State 35, Toledo 17.

TEMPLE @ PENN STATE

If you're wondering when this ridiculously soft nonconference schedule is going to rear up and bite the Nittany Lions, next week would be a good place to start. Give Joe Paterno credit, though; he's holding down the scores so his offense doesn't get overconfident, while making his defense work as hard as it will have to down the stretch. That's what have to you do when your AD signs a contract with Dolly Madison to provide your nonconference opponents. Penn State 34, Temple 0.

NORTHERN ILLINOIS @ PURDUE

The Boilermakers were two points and several dozen mental errors away from beating Oregon on the road last week. The Huskies played Wisconsin tough and blew out Western Illinois last Saturday. To win here they'll have to find an answer to the question "How do we slow down Ralph Bolden?"

I'm not sure anybody has an answer to that question yet. Purdue 45, Northern Illinois 21.

WOFFORD @ WISCONSIN

Wisconsin is 2-0, but it's a soft 2-0. The Badgers have been unimpressive in both of their victories, letting Northern Illinois back into the game in the fourth quarter and needing double overtime to beat Fresno State.

If there's anything hopeful for the Badgers, it's that the passing game has been there when they needed it, unlike the last couple seasons, and that John Clay responded to his demotion the way you would hope he would have: by playing like a man with something to prove. Clay was brilliant last week against Fresno State. He busted a 72-yard touchdown run en route to 143 yards of total rushing. The defense, however ... yikes. It's going to be a long season if the Badgers don't find a way to stiffen up their D.

Right now Bret Bielema needs a solid, convincing win to get the fans believing that this year will be better than last year was. A visit from Wofford would seem to be just what they need, but Badger fans still haven't forgotten last season's near-loss to Cal Poly. If the Wofford game is like that, they'll be calling for Bielema's head all the way from Oshmilwaunamoc to Lake Winneboognish.

Wofford has absolutely no passing game, so the Badgers should prevail. Wisconsin 34, Wofford 3.

Know Your Nonconference Tomato Can: Wofford

Of all the colleges playing Division I football, one of them has to be the smallest, and here it is. Wofford College enrolls just 1,450 students, or about as many as the typical freshman biology lecture at a Big Ten school.

Located in Spartanburg, South Carolina, Wofford College was founded in 1854 with money from the estate of Rev. Benjamin Wofford, a Methodist minister. The entire 170 acre campus is on the National Register of Historic Places. Wofford is highly ranked by US News and World Report and The Princeton Review. It shows in a student body with high grades and SAT scores. 58% of Wofford students graduated in the top 10% of their high school classes.

For such a small school, Wofford has made a couple notable contributions to the world of sports. Longtime Air Force Academy football coach Fisher DeBerry (pictured) is an alumnus, as is Jerry Richardson, owner of the NFL's Carolina Panthers. Not bad for a school that was in the NAIA as recently as 1988.

Next week's games:

Indiana @ Michigan: Sure hope the Hoosiers enjoyed being undefeated
Minnesota @ Northwestern: Return of three yards and a cloud of dust
Illinois @ Ohio State: Has Zook got one more upset in him?
Iowa @ Penn State: Somebody's dreams get crushed in this one
Notre Dame @ Purdue: Boilers' first experience against a good defense
Michigan State @ Wisconsin: Only one of these teams is for real

Pickin' On the Big Ten: Jim Tressel Is Not On the Hot Seat originally appeared on NCAA Football FanHouse on Thu, 17 Sep 2009 21:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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