Pickin' on the Big Ten: The Rich Rodriguez Spread Dilemma

Every Thursday, Pickin' on the Big Ten previews the upcoming weekend's games and ponders the meaning of it all, staring into the yawning existential void and calling a fullback dive on third-and-seven.

With one more loss, Michigan will become ineligible for a bowl game for the second season in a row. This has not happened since W.A. "Brad" Thornwhistle's disastrous first two seasons in 1847 and 1848. To avoid this horrible dishonor, all the Wolverines have to do is to beat Ohio State on Saturday. That will keep them alive for the Little Caesar's Pizza! Pizza! Bowl Bowl.

In other words, Michigan fans will be home for the holidays again.

Watching Michigan struggle is the very definition of "schadenfreude" for fans of all the other Big Ten teams. There's a reason I stuck the Wolverines with the team name "ALMOST AS GOOD AS WE THINK WE ARE" when I started writing Pickin' 11 seasons ago. The Wolverines were just coming off Lloyd Carr's national championship season. The Buckeyes were nearing the tail end of their John Cooper hangover. Wolverine fans never missed a chance to brag up their own team and run down everybody else's.

(Now do you understand why I threw your team under the bus last week, Buckeye fans?)

The current malaise at Michigan is nothing more than the latest example of that ancient statistical concept "regression to the mean." Everything averages out in the long run, and every program, without exception, no matter how big it thinks it is, hits a stretch of futility or near-futility. If Oklahoma, Alabama, Nebraska, USC, Texas, and even Ohio State have had to endure these little seasick stretches, there's no reason why the same fate can't befall the Wolverines.

"But ... but ... we're Michigan!" the fans protest. Yes, and you're almost as good as you think you are.

The dilemma for the Big Ten fan is fairly intense, however. It's great to see Michigan finally getting their comeuppance, but Rich Rodriguez was supposed to bring change to the conference. With his use of the spread offense and the inherent recruiting advantages that Michigan offers, there was a chance that the years of "three yards and a cloud of dust" would finally pass and Big Ten football could be brought at least into the mid-1990s.

It isn't working out that well, of course. Instead we've got Tressel-ball continuing to dominate, with Kirk Ferentz's Midwestern version of Beamerball running close behind. The irony is that Michigan is leading the league in rushing and scoring, though those statistics are severely skewed by their first four games.

Even nationally, it's been a bad year for the spread. Look at Kansas. KansasCity.com did and found that KU's spread offense wasn't helping them very much, while Nebraska and Kansas State have risen to the top of the Big 12 North behind the sort of power running that was supposed to be obsolete. Georgia Tech's Paul Johnson is going to win the ACC with the triple option. What happened to this magic-bullet offense, this mystical Big Ten kryptonite?

Defensive coordinators fell out of love with the West Coast-killing Cover 2 and rediscovered man coverage. Doesn't matter how much you spread the field if nobody's open.

So now, for the non-Michigan big Ten fan, the issue becomes whether you want Rodriguez to succeed or not. There's no question the conference isn't the same with Michigan sputtering. Given the conference's reactionary tendencies, though, what happens if Rodriguez wins the conference next year behind a smaller, speedier, sneakier team? Does anybody really want to see a wholesale conversion to the spread just as it looks like that offensive scheme is starting its downward slide?

I don't. I just want to see coaches who actually want to win ball games and are willing to risk (gasp!) making a mistake or two in order to win. Not that I'm bitter about the last two minutes of last week's OSU/Iowa game or anything.

Right. The games.

Purdue @ Indiana

There's nothing at stake here except pride. Neither team is going to a bowl game. That's a shame, as both these teams are better than their 4-7 records would indicate.

IU's conversion to the pistol offense didn't exactly work out the way it was supposed to. The fact that the Hoosiers got a running game going at all is impressive, but they're stuck in between Iowa and Minnesota at the very bottom of the conference rushing stats. The inability to kill the clock has burned IU more than once this season and has certainly contributed to their icky-looking defensive numbers.

Purdue, meanwhile, has come a long way from the their solid month of losing. The shutout by Wisconsin was an unfortunate burp, but otherwise this team doesn't lack fight.

Expect lots of passing in this game; it's what both teams do best. in the end I think Purdue's slightly better offensive balance will make the difference. Purdue 38, Indiana 27.

Minnesota @ Iowa

Last season the Hawkeyes closed the Gophers' Metrodome era in style with a 55-0 pants-blasting blitzkrieg. There is little reason to expect a wildly different result this year. James Vandenberg acquitted himself fairly well at Ohio Stadium last week, not folding up in the ultimate high-stress situation. This week at home, against a team with no offense and not much defense, and with another week to prepare, he should do just as well. Iowa 34, Minnesota 10.

Ohio State @ Michigan

Remember when this game used to mean something?

Let's face it, right now Michigan football is sort of like a Neil Hamburger standup routine. The timing's all wrong, stuff is flying all over the place, and you're really not sure how much of it you're supposed to be laughing at.

Ohio State, on the other hand, is sort of like a Jay Leno monologue. There's not a joke you can't finish before Leno himself does, but what do you know, he's always on. Ohio State 42, Michigan 13.

Penn State @ Michigan State

Now here's an intriguing game for you. Following the Iowa loss and a bad loss at Minnesota, it appears the Spartans are peaking at just the right time to make this match more of a tossup than you might expect.

The Nits have been money in their road games this season. All three of them. Yet Joe Paterno seems concerned. He knows that MSU takes this whole Land Grant Trophy thing very seriously, the Spartans are playing very well, and MSU's offense is hitting its stride after a half-season of confusion. I think the Nits are just a little too stout to lose this game, but Michigan State is going to push them much harder than they want to be pushed. Penn State 28, Michigan State 24.

Wisconsin @ Northwestern

They're fighting for the honor of Mike Hankwitz!

OK, OK, I kid, I kid. They're fighting for something, however. Northwestern recalls slipping way down to the Alamo Bowl last season because they couldn't seal the deal down the stretch (and because the Outback Bowl really wanted Iowa). Wisconsin would like to give Bret Bielema another 10-win season, which should shut the critics up for a couple years.

The Badgers have been shooting out the lights since their back-to-back losses to Ohio State and Iowa back in October. The untold story, however, is the power of the Badger defense, which has yet to surrender its 1,000th rushing yard and has given up fewer first downs than any other Big Ten defense.

That looms as a huge problem for a one-dimensional offense like Northwestern's. The Wildcats have never been able to make anything happen on the ground this season. With the weather looking cool and damp for Saturday, and Wisconsin coming to town, this probably isn't the weekend for them to start. Wisconsin 33, Northwestern 20.

Next week's ... um ... game:

• Illinois @ Cincinnati: Look away. Look far away.