Pickin' on the Big Ten: Let's Go Bowling

Every Thursday, Pickin' on the Big Ten previews the weekend's games so Big Ten haters can get even more nervous.

I don't know if you've noticed, but the rest of the college football universe is sort of obsessed right now. They have a deep, lingering fear of Iowa winding up in the BCS Championship Game. That, to them, could only mean one of two things. The Hawkeyes could get blown out in a total snoozer. That would be bad. They could also win, which would be worse. Now what conference would they have to say is overrated? Their own?

Who knows if Iowa actually will wind up playing for the glass football? If Ricky Stanzi can throw five picks against Indiana and they still win by 18 points, well, we just don't have a frame of reference for that. It's okay to win ugly in the NFL. The NFL has playoffs. College football doesn't, at least not at this level. You can get to the championship game without having to "earn" it. An undefeated record will usually get you there, so long as you're not Auburn or Tulane.

But I digress. The Hawks may not go to the title game, but they're going somewhere, and is most of the rest of the conference. With three games to play, it's time to start looking at the postseason probabilities. We'll run down each team in alphabetical order, with a prediction for the rest of the season and the postseason. Yes, we have to do this for every team. No Big Ten team is ineligible for the postseason yet.

ILLINOIS
Current record: 2-6
Games remaining: @ Minnesota, Northwestern, @ Cincinnati, Fresno State
Predicted wins: None
FInal record: 2-10
Postseason prediction: Two guys named Ron sit around a fireplace talking about how maybe it's not such a bad thing that Illinois politics never change.

INDIANA
Current record: 4-5
Games remaining: Wisconsin, @ Penn State, Purdue
Predicted wins: Purdue
Final record: 5-7
Postseason prediction: Much grumbling about the screw job at Iowa, but a mild resurgence in the basketball team's fortunes quickly makes everyone forget about the football season.

IOWA
Current record: 9-0
Games remaining: Northwestern, @ Ohio State, Minnesota
Predicted wins: Northwestern, Minnesota
Final record: 11-1
Postseason prediction: Rose Bowl vs. Oregon. A loss to Ohio State in Columbus keeps Iowa out of the title picture, which ameliorates the fury of a jaded nation. Hawkeyes trail 38-3 midway through the third quarter, but wind up winning 41-38.

MICHIGAN
Current record: 5-4
Games remaining: Purdue, @ Wisconsin, Ohio State
Predicted wins: Purdue, Ohio State
Final record: 7-5
Postseason prediction: Alamo Bowl vs. Kansas. The stunning upset of Ohio State makes all the bad auras around Rich Rodriguez go away. The Wolverines smash a Kansas team that expected something much better than this at the start of the season.

MICHIGAN STATE
Current record: 4-5
Games remaining: Western Michigan, @ Purdue, Penn State
Predicted wins: Western Michigan, Purdue
Final record: 6-6
Postseason prediction: Little Caesars Pizza Bowl vs. Temple. Central Michigan actually wins the MAC, but nobody wants to see a rematch, so Temple goes to Detroit instead, and for once this bowl gets a team that is actually glad to be there. Temple pulls the upset, except it's not really an upset since Michigan State doesn't have anything to play for.

MINNESOTA
Current record: 5-4
Games remaining: Illinois, South Dakota State, @ Iowa
Predicted wins: Illinois, South Dakota State
Final record: 7-5
Postseason prediction: Champs Sports Bowl vs. Duke. Yes, Duke. The Gophers finally realize there's life after Eric Decker, but Duke manages to get the win anyway.

NORTHWESTERN
Current record: 5-4
Games remaining: @ Iowa, @ Illinois, Wisconsin
Predicted wins: Illinois
Final record: 6-6
Postseason prediction: Insight Bowl vs. Iowa State. Two 6-6 teams who are just grateful to be going to bowls wind up having a great shootout in the Valley of the Sun. Iowa State picks apart the Northwestern defense on a late drive to get a program-boosting win.

OHIO STATE
Current record: 7-2
Games remaining: @ Penn State, Iowa, @ Michigan
Predicted wins: Iowa
Final record: 8-4
Postseason prediction: Outback Bowl vs. Tennessee. Buckeyes rebound from the Penn State loss with a decisive win over Iowa, then soil the bed in the Big House and wind up facing a Tennessee team with all kinds of momentum going for it. Terrelle Pryor withers in front of the Vols, but strong play on defense and an unexpected special teams touchdown let OSU win. Criticism of Jim Tressel and his staff goes away for another year or so.

PENN STATE
Current record: 8-1
Games remaining: Ohio State, Indiana, @ Michigan State
Predicted wins: Ohio State, Indiana, Michigan State
Final record: 11-1
Postseason prediction: Fiesta Bowl vs. TCU. Gary Patterson's team finally gets the sort of bowl bid they've earned, but Penn State proves to be just a little too much for the Horned Frogs. The Nits win by 14.

PURDUE
Current record: 3-6
Games remaining: @ Michigan, Michigan State, @ Indiana
Predicted wins: None
Final record: 3-9
Postseason prediction: A couple days of foul moods, then the sudden realization that Robert Marve will be eligible next year makes everybody lighten up and start looking forward to a better 2010.

WISCONSIN
Current record: 6-2
Games remaining: @ Indiana, Michigan, @ Northwestern, @ Hawaii
Predicted wins: Indiana, Michigan, Northwestern, Hawaii
Final record: 10-2
Postseason prediction: Capital One Bowl vs. LSU. The Badgers get an overconfident LSU squad expecting a slow, fat opponent who just wants to run the football. O'Brien Schofield has the sort of day that moves a guy up several slots, if not a whole round, in the NFL draft. Scott Tolzien shows the nation that Wisconsin can indeed pass the ball. The Badgers win by nine; shortly after the game an LSU booster makes an offer for the firelesmiles.com domain name.

Right. The games.

WISCONSIN @ INDIANA

The Badgers are full of momentum right now, while the Hoosiers are still trying to recover from their ride on the Iowa City Heartbreak Express. Indiana is a better team than their record indicates, but giving up 28 points to Iowa in just one quarter shows their defense is just not all there right now. IU can keep this interesting for a half but again watches everything fall apart late in the game. Wisconsin 34, Indiana 20.

NORTHWESTERN @ IOWA

No, Iowa can't keep working miracles every week, but this week they won't need to. Mike Kafka is expected to return for the Wildcats. He's the sort of quarterback who usually gives the Hawkeyes fits. The NU secondary, however, is basically a triage unit right now. Iowa takes advantage of Northwestern's struggling running game, picks off Kafka twice more than NU picks off Ricky Stanzi, and manufactures another win out of thin air. HALF A GAME IS BETTER THAN YOU 28, CAN WE USE YOUR LIBRARY? 24.

(Again, a little old school POTBT for you. For the n00bs, that means that I predict Iowa, a team which seems only to play in the second half of every game, to defeat the ever-studious Northwestern squad.)

PURDUE @ MICHIGAN

In this season's Bootstrap Bowl, we find two teams trying to shine a little bit of light, however small, into the darkness of their recent performance. Michigan would like to forget October ever happened, while Purdue is pretty sure they're just imagining that they lost to Wisconsin 37-0 last week.

This should be a fun game. It's always fun when neither team really plays defense. Purdue is ready to unload their frustrations on Michigan, but the Wolverines are just angrier. Also, they're overdue for a dominant performance. Michigan 45, Purdue 31.

WESTERN MICHIGAN @ MICHIGAN STATE

Fortunately for Sparty, the Broncos are having an off year. You can run against them, for one thing. For another, they're hot and cold offensively. A week after only getting a field goal against Northern Illinois, they laid 58 on Toledo.

Michigan State needs this game, of course. It's not just a matter of keeping their postseason hopes alive. This is the point where previous Spartan teams have melted into sludge, unable to keep a two-game losing streak from turning a five-gamer. If Mark Dantonio's team loses this one, they're not winning for the rest of the year. I still believe in Dantonio, so I'm going with Sparty. Michigan State 27, Western Michigan 17.

ILLINOIS @ MINNESOTA

Last week the Illini kicked Michigan to the curb in grand fashion as Juice Williams finally played like a highly touted recruit who had the benefit of four years in an elite program where he was well coached. Minnesota, meanwhile, finally got off their lazy butts and realized that they'd been counting on Eric Decker a little too much. It's not really an example of the Ewing Theory, but once Adam Weber had to spread the ball around, he did it brilliantly.

The Gopher offense is much more experienced than Michigan's, and I just don't trust Illinois to play well two weeks in a row. Both these teams have a lot more than pride to play for, but there's a reason Illinois is 2-6, and I'm pretty sure former Illini tight end Tim Brewster knows what it is. It starts with a D and rhymes with "refence." Minnesota 20, Illinois 10.

OHIO STATE @ PENN STATE

But for LSU and Alabama, this would be the most interesting game in the country this week. It's sort of a referendum on OSU's recent dominance in the Big Ten, as well as the wisdom of putting so much responsibility on Terrelle Pryor so early in his career. He just can't play like he's been playing. Especially not in Happy Valley, where PSU smells blood. This is the weakest OSU team in five or six years, and it's one of Penn State's best teams in that same period.

Dan Herron had a nice effect on the offense last week against New Mexico State, taking some of the pressure off young Mr. Pryor's shoulders. If Herron can run the ball well Pryor will see some passing lanes open up that wouldn't be there otherwise. Penn State has the nation's tenth best run defense. Good luck, Boom.

Obviously you can't take Ohio State lightly, but the fact is, the best offense the Buckeyes have faced all season is USC's and that game was almost two months ago. Penn State hasn't been scoring as much as they did last season but they are generating many more yards than OSU on offense. The crowd will be amped for this game, and the only Big Ten coach who knows how to shut up Beaver Stadium will be in Iowa City this weekend. This game will be a festival of old-school field position football, but I'll take Daryll Clark over Terrelle Pryor any day. Penn State 16, Ohio State 14.

Next week's games:

• Northwestern @ Illinois: I can see Fitz putting the spurs to Zook in this one
• South Dakota State @ Minnesota: Oh great, another directional school
• Iowa @ Ohio State: Less at stake here than you think
• Indiana @ Penn State: Likely to get out of hand
• Michigan State @ Purdue: At least one team will be playing out the string
• Michigan @ Wisconsin: A better game than you suspect, but Badgers will win