Big Ten Title Race Tightens Up

With three games left in the conference season, the Big Ten championship is seemingly up for grabs. I say "seemingly" because thus far Iowa has proved to be more resilient than Kevlar, cast iron, and Gary Busey. At this point it almost seems like the Hawkeyes could not even take the field until late in the fourth quarter and still win.

They've looked quite mortal at times, though, so it's worth looking at who still has a shot at the trip to Pasadena. There's even one team you'd think wouldn't be in it based on who they've lost to.
Iowa has the clearest path to the title, as you might expect. If the Hawkeyes win out, they win the conference. They don't even have to win out if Penn State beats Ohio State this weekend. All they would need to do is win any two of their last three games. It wouldn't matter if they lost in Columbus as long as they beat both Northwestern and Minnesota in Iowa City.

Ohio State can also claim the title if they win out, but their path is much more difficult than Iowa's. They would have to win in Happy Valley this weekend, beat Iowa next week, and close with a win at Michigan. If Iowa were to lose all their remaining games, the Buckeyes would have a loss to give.

Penn State is still alive but needs a little help. Since they lost to Iowa, they have to finish ahead of the Hawkeyes in the conference standings. That would require Iowa to lose at least two of its last three. PSU would also have to beat Ohio State. Failing that, the Nittany Lions would have hope that Iowa and Michigan beat the Buckeyes.

WIsconsin is the surprising team that is still alive, in theory. Of all the remaining contenders, the Badgers have the easiest schedule. They play at Indiana, host Michigan, then play at Northwestern and Hawaii. They can certainly win out with that schedule.

Of course, the Badgers have lost to both Iowa and Ohio State, so they're going to need a little help. Iowa must lose out, while Ohio State must beat the Hawkeyes but lose to Penn State and Michigan. Penn State would need to lose to either Indiana or Michigan State as well. That would leave Wisconsin and PSU, who will not play each other this year, with identical 6-2 conference records.

The Big Ten's second tiebreaker (after head-to-head results) is overall winning percentage. Suddenly the Badgers' game with Hawaii would loom large, because a win would give them an 11-2 record against Penn State's 10-2 record, throwing the title to the Badgers. This would mark the first time the Big Ten title was decided in December and not in the Midwest, as far as I can tell. At any rate, a single Iowa win eliminates Wisconsin.

All of the teams with three conference losses (Minnesota, Michigan State, Northwestern, and Purdue) have been eliminated for a variety of reasons. Michigan State has lost to Iowa and would lose any tie with the Hawkeyes, which is the best they could hope for. Minnesota has lost to Ohio State and Penn State, so both those teams would have to lose three times. Iowa would also have to lose out. Since Ohio State has games remaining with Iowa and Penn State it is not possible for both OSU and PSU to lose out. Minnesota is thus eliminated.

Northwestern doesn't play Ohio State but lost to Penn State, so they would need Penn State to lose out. However, if that happens, the Wildcats could do no better than tie with Ohio State. They would probably lose that tie because of the Big Ten's third tiebreaker, BCS standings.Thus the Wildcats aren't eliminated in theory but might as well be.

Purdue doesn't play Penn State or Iowa, so they would need both teams to lose out and Ohio State to drop two of their final three. However, if Iowa lost out, they would tie with Purdue, and the Hawkeyes would have a vastly better overall win percentage, eliminating the Boilermakers. It would be really funny to see a 6-6 team go to the Rose Bowl, though.

Indiana, Michigan, and Illinois have no chance because there aren't enough games left for Iowa to lose. None of the three have been eliminated from the postseason, however, so there's still something to play for.