Big East Picks: South Florida Falls in Autumn ... Again

Each Friday, FanHouse's Brett McMurphy will preview the Big East and make his weekly predictions.

Before the season began, South Florida coach Jim Leavitt said he was making several changes within the Bulls' program in hopes of avoiding another mid-season free fall that has plagued them the past two seasons.

"I've tried to look at our practice schedules, tried to look at how we're doing things," Leavitt said on Sept. 1. "We've changed quite a bit. Has it worked? I don't know. If we win, we'll feel good about it. If we lose, we'll feel we're not real smart."

USF is not real smart right now.

After a 5-0 start, the Bulls have lost two in a row entering Friday night's contest with No. 20 West Virginia.

Me? I've gotten a little smarter the past two weeks, hitting at a 63 percent clip against the line in my Big East picks. For the season I'm hitting, yawn, nearly 85 percent straight up.

The Bulls host the Mountaineers, who are favored by three. The last time the Mountaineers visited Tampa was also a Friday night in 2007 when WVU was a 7-point favorite.

That year when the Mountaineers stepped off the team bus, a number of players were wearing New York Yankees hats because former coach Rich Rodriguez had compared his team to the Yankees for their ability to pack opposing stadiums.

Final score: USF 21, Damn Yankees 13.

The Mountaineers return to Tampa and no one has given WVU's offense fits like USF's defense. However, former defensive coordinator Wally Burnham, the architect of those defenses, has taken his secret formula on how to stop the spread offense with him to Iowa State.

Also there's the fact (warning, actual research ahead) that the Bulls have been outgained in each of their three Big East games this season against Cincinnati, Pittsburgh and, gulp, Syracuse. I've been perfect on my Thursday/Friday night Big East games this year and look to keep the streak going. Take West Virginia minus 3.

Cincinnati at Syracuse: Starting QB Tony Pike is expected to miss his second consecutive game with a left arm injury, giving redshirt sophomore back-up Zach Collaros his second collegiate start. Collaros, who won two state titles in high school, hasn't lost a game as a starting quarterback since his freshman year in high school seven years ago. So unless Zach Collaros starts throwing interceptions like Nebraska's Zac Lee, the Bearcats and their underrated defense should crush the Orange and cover the 14½.

Rutgers at UConn: Five of the last seven meetings have been decided by seven points or less, while Rutgers has won three of the last four meetings. Yet UConn is favored by 8? That seems a little rich for me. Rutgers wins outright against an emotionally drained Huskies club.

Arkansas State at Louisville: The No. 1 Halloween costume worn at Saturday's game between the Red Wolves and Cardinals? An empty seat. Louisville has lost eight consecutive Big East games. Fortunately for the Cards, this isn't a league game. Maybe that's why they're favored by 3. Remember when Arkansas State's mascot used to be the Indians? Remember when Louisville used to be good? The Red Wolves pull off the minor upset.

Last Week: 5-0 (straight up); 3-2 (against the spread)

Season: 39-7 (84.8 percent) (straight up); 15-20-1 (42.9 percent) (against the spread)