Clearing Up the Big Ten Picture

While most of the world is still trying to figure out how the Iowa Hawkeyes stole the cheese out of the mousetrap -- again -- the conference title race is beginning to take a little more shape. Since neither Iowa nor Ohio State lost this past weekend, there's no shakeup at the top. Both teams remain equally in control of their respective destinies.

But what about the rest of the league? Is anybody new out of the hunt this week? Who's still alive but barely breathing? And where do things go from here in this crazy conference?

Still in Control

Iowa and Ohio State know the path is simple. Win out, you win the conference. Iowa doesn't need to win out if Ohio State loses one of its remaining conference games (at Penn State, Iowa, at Michigan). A single Buckeye loss would put Iowa two games up on Ohio State. The Hawkeyes already own a tiebreaker against Penn State. If OSU loses a game, Iowa can lose one too -- and it wouldn't matter which game either team lost.

Ohio State doesn't have to win out so long as Iowa loses at least three of its last four games (Indiana, Northwestern, at Ohio State, Minnesota). That's asking a lot.

A Little Help, Please

Penn State can still make it to the Rose Bowl if it wins out (at Northwestern, Ohio State, Indiana, at Michigan State) and Iowa loses twice. If the Nits lose to Ohio State, they can still win if the Buckeyes lose to Iowa and Michigan and Iowa loses twice. Penn State is eliminated by any three Iowa victories.

A Lot of Help, Please

Michigan State must finish with a better conference record than Iowa and Wisconsin. They would need at least one Badger loss and three Iowa losses. Because the Spartans don't play Ohio State this season they would also need to finish ahead of OSU in the conference or hope for New Mexico State to upset the Buckeyes. Then, so long as Sparty beats Western Michigan, they could tie the Buckeyes and hope the BCS rankings would go in their favor. It would be far simpler just to finish with a better conference record than OSU. Michigan State is eliminated by any two Iowa victories, or if Wisconsin wins out in the conference.

A Miracle, Please

(Note: All these teams must win out to have any chance at winning the conference.)

Northwestern would have victories over Penn State and Iowa if they won out. They would need Iowa to lose one more game, as well. The Wildcats don't play Ohio State. If Northwestern and OSU finished tied in the standings, the BCS rankings would thus be their tiebreaker, unless New Mexico State beats the Buckeyes in Columbus this Saturday. The Aggies are 3-5. Good luck with that. Since OSU would likely have the better BCS ranking, Northwestern would need to finish with a better conference record. That would require two Buckeye losses. Any two Iowa victories or Ohio State winning out would eliminate Northwestern.

Purdue doesn't play Iowa or Penn State this season. It would need three Iowa losses and two Penn State losses. The Boilermakers can finish tied with Ohio State since they beat the Buckeyes, but that requires one more Buckeye loss. They also need Northwestern to lose at least once more. They are eliminated by two Iowa victories, three Penn State victories, or Northwestern winning out.

Wisconsin needs Iowa to lose three times and Ohio State to lose twice. If OSU beats Iowa, the Buckeyes have to lose to Penn State and Michigan. If Iowa beats OSU, the Hawkeyes would have to lose their three remaining home games. It is very hard to see this happening. Wisconsin would be eliminated by two Iowa victories plus two OSU conference victories.

Michigan needs Iowa, Michigan State, and Penn State to finish with four conference losses and Ohio State (whom the Wolverines would beat in the process of winning out) to finish with three conference losses. Since Ohio State has to win one game in order for Iowa to lose out, that means that OSU would also have to lose to Penn State. Penn State would have to lose to Northwestern, Indiana, and Michigan State to give Michigan a chance. That scenario would also require Michigan State to lose to Minnesota and Purdue. In other words, the Wolverines aren't eliminated yet but might as well be. A single Iowa victory would eliminate the Wolverines.

Indiana, like Northwestern, would have victories over Iowa and Penn State if they won out. They would still need Iowa to lose twice more and Penn State once. Ohio State would have to lose all their remaining conference games, Northwestern and Michigan State would both have to lose once. This gives Indiana a situation similar to Michigan's. They're not eliminated but they're hardly alive. A single OSU conference victory or two by Iowa closes the door on IU.

Minnesota needs Iowa to lose three of its four remaining conference games. It also needs Ohio State to lose all of its remaining conference games. This means the Hawks would have to beat Ohio State but lose to everybody else. The Gophers would also need Penn State to beat Ohio State but lose to everybody else. Wisconsin has already beaten Minnesota so the Badgers would also have to lose twice and finish with four conference losses. The Gophers are eliminated by either an Iowa victory or a Penn State victory, so long as that win was over anyone other than Ohio State, or a single OSU conference victory.

Dude, Did You Know There's a Fork in Your Back?

Illinois was eliminated last week.

Impacts of This Week's Games

An Iowa win over Indiana eliminates Indiana and Michigan.

An Ohio State win over New Mexico State gives OSU an outright tiebreaker over Michigan State.

A Penn State win over Northwestern eliminates Michigan.

A Michigan State win over Minnesota eliminates Michigan.

Purdue, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Minnesota are eliminated if they lose.