Pickin' on the Big Ten: Sorting Saturday

Every Thursday, Pickin' on the Big Ten answers the questions, questions the answers, and looks ahead to Saturday's games.

It's now indisputably late October. The leaves here in Wisconsin went from being Monet-like things of beauty to being a soggy ground-based nuisance in less time than it takes for a new Jim Tressel criticism to appear on the internet. It feels like the season just started but after this weekend it's two-thirds over.

There are so many questions yet to answer, however. I've already explored the various Big Ten title scenarios, so let's look at some of the other burning issues.

Is Terrelle Pryor actually a quarterback?

That's the talking point du jour here in flyover country after the Buckeyes' pants-blast against Purdue last week. Pryor isn't turning into the Tecmo Bowl Bo Jackson he was supposed to be back when Rivals and Scout were trying to find ways to give him a sixth or seventh star. There have even been intimations from Pryor's high school coach that the OSU staff may have made some promises to Pryor that either aren't being kept or are being kept but shouldn't be.

The whole mess had made people finally realize that Todd Boeckman got a raw deal last season and Terrelle Pryor is getting a raw deal this season. Pryor simply isn't ready to be The Guy. Moving him to wide receiver, as some are suggesting, isn't going to make him better and isn't going to help the Buckeyes at all.

Pryor looked so good at times last season because he didn't have to do it all. Boeckman was always around when a more traditional quarterbacking style was called for. Benching Pryor now, or moving him to another position, would just transfer all that pressure to Joe Bauserman. Maybe if the Buckeyes lose another game, putting them decisively out of the Big Ten title race, it might be worth seeing if Bauserman can provide some mojo. Until then, the Buckeyes' best chance to win is with Pryor under center. It's just that those chances aren't as good as the chances OSU fans are used to.

When is Ron Zook going to get whacked?

Certainly not until the end of the season, and maybe not then, either. UIUC is in the midst of administrative chaos centered around an admissions scandal -- one which doesn't involve athletics. University Chancellor Richard Herman announced his resignation this week. University President B. Joseph White has also resigned, along with a number of trustees. That's a lot of decision makers to have to replace all at once. Obviously, someone will occupy all these offices on an interim basis, but do you think any of them will want to make major decisions?

Complicating things is the fact that Zook signed a contract extension this summer, which makes him more expensive to buy out. Athletic Director Ron Guenther may be forced to hit the gong anyway just to save his own job, but the timing couldn't be worse for Illinois.

Besides, who are you going to get to come in? Zook has a nice arsenal at Illinois and there are plenty of coaches out there who are experts at getting the most out of the talent they have. But would they be interested in Illinois? The last coach to leave Champaign with a winning record was John Mackovic who left for Texas in 1991. Since then the Illini are 88-123-2, and their overall winning percentage has dropped with each coach.

Is Iowa going to sneak into the national title game more or less by default just to get their doors blown off?

No, and I'll tell you why. It has nothing to do with the perceived weakness of the Big Ten and everything to do with the dramatic dropoffs found in other conferences.

Who's the third-best team in the SEC?

Who's the second-best team in the Big 12?

Who's the best team in the Pac 10?

We don't know the answers to any of those questions, which should tell you that Texas and whoever wins the SEC have the shortest route to Pasadena. At any rate, before the season I had Iowa finishing 10-2. I had them at 7-0 at this point in the season. I'm not bragging; I'm just saying that I do not actually see the Hawks running the table. So don't worry. Some other conference's champion will be embarrassing themselves in the title game.

Right. The games.

PENN STATE @ MICHIGAN

It's the fourth Saturday in October and this is Penn State's second road game. Nope, nothing wrong with your scheduling, PSU!

If the wheel of karma is spinning the way it ought to, the Wolverines are going to get crushed in this game. Their offensive line in the second half of last week's Delaware State game was made up entirely of sousaphone players from the marching band, for crying out loud. And was that Mary Sue Coleman, the president of the university, running back punts in the fourth quarter?

If ever a team could come in to The Big House and deliver karmic retribution to the Wolverines, it would be Penn State. Iowa is the only school to hold the Nits under 20 points, as well as the only team to score more than 17 on them. Otherwise the scores have been as gaudy as you would suspect. They just aren't as gaudy as they were last year.

Then again, you could make a case that Penn State hasn't faced an offense any better than Iowa's, and Iowa's offense is not exactly a benchmark of wonderfulness. Michigan's offense is quite a different story. Nobody has held them under 20 points, and iowa's defense is at least as good as Penn State's.

This game will come down to who has the better playmakers. Michigan wins that battle on offense, Penn State on defense. Since this is the year of Big D, I'm going with PSU. Penn State 28, Michigan 24.

IOWA @ MICHIGAN STATE

This is the game this weekend with the most implications for the Big Ten title. Both these teams are legitimately contending for it.

Kirk Ferentz has never won in East Lansing. In fact, the last time Iowa won at Spartan Stadium Ren and Stimpy were still on the air.

Michigan State has come a long way from their 1-3 start, but do they have enough to beat the Hawkeyes? It depends. No Big Ten team passes for more yards than Sparty, but that actually could be a liability. The Hawks have picked off every starting quarterback they've faced, with the exception of Northern Iowa's Pat Grace. Kirk Cousins is expected to get the start for Michigan State. He doesn't throw many picks, but Iowa has a way of making bad things happen.

So Sparty needs to get the running game going early before the Hawkeyes start dropping linebackers into coverage. Without a good running game they're just going to be too easy to defend. MSU hasn't put up more than 30 points all season.

Defensively the Spartans need to force Ricky Stanzi to throw, though as the season goes on that strategy works less and less. Derrell Johnson-Koulianos and Tony Moeaki are both hitting their peak now as receivers, which has cut down on Stanzi's struggles. Iowa probably won't be able to run the ball very well all afternoon, but neither, I fear, will Michigan State. In the end, Iowa's superior pass defense and MSU's inexperienced running backs will make the difference as Iowa wins. DEATH RIDES A PALE COW 30, OFFENSIVE WIZARD IN MY BACKYARD 23.

(You like that? A little old school POTBT for you longtimers. For the n00bs, that means I expect Iowa, a team from a state with a lot of cows, to defeat Michigan State, a school with offensive wizard Rich Rodriguez nearby, by a final score of 30 points to 23 points. Also it means I am a fan of the Dead Milkmen.)

INDIANA @ NORTHWESTERN

Both these teams deserve better seasons than the ones they're having. Indiana has finally solved its baffling offensive problems and actually has one of the best pass rushes in the conference. Yet somehow it's all for naught. The Hoosiers lost to Ohio State and Michigan in consecutive weeks, then went to Virginia the week after someone on Al Groh's staff decided to risk having to do 4,000 pushups by telling the coach the football season had actually started and all these games counted. They got over on Illinois last week, but that's sort of like bragging that you were only third in line at Starbucks.

Northwestern, meanwhile, can't put the pieces together . Their offense started off just fine but their defense was lost in space. Then the defense showed up at the same time the offense took a cookie break. If they ever get both units to show up for the same game they might really have something.

Since both these teams have the consistency of cafeteria soup it's hard to predict how things will go. I like Indiana's ability to run the ball better than I like Northwestern's. I don't trust Ben Chappell as much as I trust Mike Kafka. But I don't trust Mike Kafka all that much. I've picked the road team in every game so far, but they can't all win. Northwestern, in a game that's so ugly it'll belong on public access. Northwestern 14, Indiana 10.

MINNESOTA @ OHIO STATE

I'm tempted to make some lame quip like "Here's one road team I won't be taking" but if the Buckeyes can lose to a team as snakebit as Purdue, then anything can happen. Except for Minnesota scoring a lot of points. Or Ohio State not scoring a lot of points. I'll go out on a limb here and say that Terrelle Pryor won't need any lukewarm endorsements for at least seven days after this game. Ohio State 31, Minnesota 12.

ILLINOIS @ PURDUE

WTTW in Chicago is showing Mexico One Plate at a Time at 11:30 on Saturday. Rick Bayless will be making tortas.

I'm just sayin', that's all. Purdue 38, Illinois 21.

Next week's games:

• Michigan @ Illinois: This ought to be good for a few laughs
• Indiana @ Iowa: And this
• Michigan State @ Minnesota: Not to mention this
• Penn State @ Northwestern: Or this
• New Mexico State @ Ohio State: That's not funny
• Purdue @ Wisconsin: This is as close to a good game as we're going to get, I guess