Big Ten Title Race Far From Over

The Iowa Hawkeyes are the Big Ten's only undefeated team, both in conference play and overall. Right behind the No. 7 Hawkeyes stand a 5-2 team (Ohio State), a 4-3 team (Michigan State), and a 6-1 team Iowa has already beaten (Penn State).

The Hawks look to be in complete control of the conference race, with those 6-1 Nittany Lions nipping at their heels. But Iowa the only Big Ten team in control of its BCS destiny? No, no they are not. You might be surprised how little help some of the other teams need, too.

Let's take a look at who could still win the conference without any help, who needs a little help from their enemies friends, and who might as well start making other plans for New Year's.

Before we start, however, remember the Big Ten's tiebreaker policy, which goes in this order: Head-to-head result, overall winning percentage (i.e., nonconference record), and BCS standings. Will any of these be tiebreakers prove necessary? They just might.

The Contenders

Iowa and Ohio State play each other Nov. 14. Thus, if either team wins out, that team wins the conference. Ohio State's stunning loss to Purdue is nullified if they beat the Hawkeyes.

Winning out is a mighty big 'if' for both teams, however. Iowa plays at Michigan State this Saturday. Kirk Ferentz has never won in East Lansing. Ohio State travels to Happy Valley Nov. 7, and you'll see how that game fits into Penn State's plans a little later.

If the Buckeyes fall to Penn State, Iowa doesn't need to beat OSU to win the conference. It would be enough to beat Michigan State, or hope Sparty and Penn State each lose one more conference game.

If Michigan State beats Iowa, Ohio State doesn't need to beat the Hawkeyes as long as a.) someone else besides MSU does beat Iowa, b.) Michigan State loses at least one more conference game, and c.) the Buckeyes don't gack against New Mexico State. Otherwise ... well, it's easier to explain from Sparty's point of view.

Need a Little Help

Michigan State doesn't play Ohio State and thus far has a worse non-conference record than Ohio State. Nonetheless, Sparty can still win the conference if they win out, which would give them tiebreakers against Iowa and Penn State, and Ohio State loses one more conference game. If OSU loses to New Mexico State but wins out otherwise, the Spartans and Buckeyes would find themselves watching the BCS standings because those standings would decide the conference title. Ohio State is No. 19 in the current BCS standings. Michigan State doesn't appear in them. Advantage: Buckeyes.

Penn State can win the conference if they win out and Iowa loses twice. Ohio State and Michigan State would both finish no better than 6-2 in conference since they both still have to play Penn State. The Nits would be 7-1 in the conference under that scenario. If Iowa doesn't lose twice Penn State is eliminated from winning the conference.

Minnesota wins the conference if they win out, Iowa loses one other conference game, and Penn State loses once. The Gophers play the Buckeyes this week in Columbus. A Minnesota win would be OSU's second conference loss and the Gophers would thus own the tiebreaker over the Buckeyes. (I'm with you; I can't believe how little help the Gophers need.)

Need a Lot of Help

Wisconsin has lost to Ohio State and Iowa. They must finish with a better conference record than either team. That requires three Iowa losses and and two more Ohio State conference losses, plus Wisconsin running the table from this point forward. Since the Badgers beat Michigan State, they can finish tied with the Spartans and still go to the Rose Bowl. Of course, they can only finish tied with the Spartans if somebody else in the conference beats MSU.

Wisconsin doesn't play Penn State this season and the two teams have identical non-conference records. If Penn State loses once more the Badgers could also tie the Nits. Assuming Wisky and PSU are the only two-conference-loss teams in the Big Ten, the title would be decided by ... oh man. The title would be decided by the Wisconsin-Hawaii game on December 5th.

Purdue owns a tiebreaker against Ohio State but doesn't play Iowa or Penn State. The Boilermakers' 1-3 nonconference schedule requires them to finish with a better conference record than either of those schools, which would require three Iowa losses and two Penn State losses.

Michigan has lost to Michigan State and Iowa. Unless both those teams wind up with three conference losses the Wolverines can't win the Big Ten. However, if both those teams do lose three times and Michigan wins out, the Maize and Blue could still, theoretically, wind up in the Rose Bowl.

Northwestern needs two Iowa losses, two Ohio State losses (they don't play OSU this season), one Michigan State loss, one Indiana loss, and no more losses of their own.

Indiana needs to run the table and hope for three Iowa losses, two Ohio State losses, and one Michigan loss.

So okay, there's one team still unaccounted for. Illinois. Is all lost for the Illini?

All Is Lost

It is. Since Illinois doesn't play Iowa this season, they would have to finish with a better conference record than the Hawkeyes, which is only possible if Iowa loses the rest of its games. However, the Illini have already lost to Ohio State so they would need a better conference record than the Buckeyes as well. That's not possible if OSU beats Iowa. Therefore, the Illini have been mathematically eliminated from the Big Ten title race.

More's the pity. I was hoping there would be a chain of wreckage which would put them in the Rose Bowl, because that would be the death blow for the BCS. Some other year, some other conference.