Pickin' On the Big Ten: Is the Peter Principle Making Illinois Ill?

Every Thursday, Pickin' On the Big Ten stays late to run the TPS reports on the coming weekend's games.

In a hierarchy every employee tends to rise to his or her level of incompetence.

The above statement is better known as the Peter Principle, and if it doesn't make sense to you, join the club. I didn't get it the first 1,378 times I read it. Now I recognize it for what it is. It's an overly intellectual way of saying "People who do a good job keep getting promoted until they wind up in a job they can't do."

So what does this have to do with Illinois, you ask?

Oh, come on. Like you don't know I'm writing about Ron Zook.

Look, I don't mean to pass judgment on Ron Zook the person. That's not my place at all. I don't even intend to pass judgment on whether Ron Zook can coach football or not. He obviously can; you don't rise to his level without having some coaching chops, after all. I'm just questioning whether he's actually meant to be a head coach.

On the surface that sounds ridiculous. Rip his name off the top of his resume and ask me if you would have hired him. He was personally associated with one of the best college football programs of the 1990s, serving on the staff of a coach widely thought to be at the top of his profession. Not only that, but he also had significant experience in the NFL, where he worked with Bill Cowher. Other coaches he had worked for? Try Johnny Majors and Frank Beamer.

Along the way he earned a reputation as one of college football's most energetic and tenacious recruiters. Was Florida nuts to give him the head coaching job back in 2002?

Well, sort of, given that he'd never been head coach anywhere at any level. Head coaching isn't the same as position coaching or coordinating. Not every great coordinator pans out as a head coach. Not every great head coach would make a good coordinator or position coach. They're just different skills.

Problem was, there was no place for Zook to go except into the head coaching ranks.

Three years later, was Illinois nuts to give Ron Zook the head coaching job? Not really. There just wasn't enough of a body of work available to judge his talents. He lost too many games, but the expectations in Gainesville were flying higher than Michael Crabtree's self-image. He did manage to win three straight road games against top-11 teams, and he beat 13-win teams in back-to-back seasons. Not everything was bad.

Now, well, we sort of know. He had one great season in which he got the Illini to the Rose Bowl. Otherwise, it looks like "head coach" is not the best job title for Zook to pursue. Give him a title like "assistant head coach and recruiting coordinator," then pair him up with some charm-free Xs-and-Os genius of a head coach. In that role Zook's worth at least $300,000 a year. But as a head coach? Not really. He's reached the level of his incompetence.

Right. The games.

MICHIGAN STATE @ ILLINOIS

Speaking of the Peter Principle, could it also apply to Zook's star recruit of all star recruits, Juice Williams?

You could make the case. As a freshman Williams showed incredible promise coupled with maddening inconsistency. As a sophomore who was just one of many weapons in the arsenal, he helped lead the Illini to the Rose Bowl. As a junior who had to carry water for the offense while the defense put the hurt on people, he was marginal. Now, as the only real playmaker on a team that was allegedly loaded with them, he's been benched.

As Williams' role got bigger, he was less and less able to meet expectations. Zook now won't even say how he's going to use Williams, except that he won't line up at running back or wide receiver. My opinion? Juice went to his coach and said, "Look, this season's lost, and I realize now I'll probably never play quarterback in the NFL. But maybe I can still make it to the pros. Give me a chance to run back kicks; maybe I'm the next Joshua Cribbs."

Given the way Illinois' defense is playing, and the way Michigan State's offense is playing, then if that's what Wiliams wants, he's going to get a good start on his highlight reel this week. Michigan State 38, Illinois 20.

INDIANA @ VIRGINIA

Virginia: Awful, despite beating North Carolina last week.

Indiana: Not awful, despite losing to Ohio State last week. Indiana 20, Virginia 6.

MICHIGAN @ IOWA

We could've had a real Game of the Century of the Week on our hands, but no, the Wolverines had to lose to Sparty last weekend. Tate Forcier can blame himself all he wants to, but no team comes down to just one guy, and no game ever really comes down to just one play. You still can't win in the Big Ten without a pretty good defense, and Michigan does not yet have one.

Of course, you can't win without an offense either, and you could argue that Iowa still doesn't have one. At the risk of negating everything I said in the previous paragraph, Arkansas State showed the best way to defend against the Hawkeyes: stuff the run and make Ricky Stanzi throw a lot. In the first half of last week's game, this looked like a profoundly stupid strategy. In the second half, it almost worked. I still think a team is a lot more than one guy, but 24 points isn't going to beat Michigan. If Stanzi comes out cold or falters for a quarter, the Hawks could easily lose this game, Kinnick Stadium magic or not.

Then again, Michigan hasn't faced a defense close to as good as the one it's about to face. Iowa 28, Michigan 26.

PURDUE @ MINNESOTA

Attention Purdue fans: Since I'm batting .000 when it comes to calling out coaches (the three I've called out this season have all won every game since), I want you to know that I'm now accepting offers to make Danny Hope the lead of next week's Pickin'.

You might not need to after this week, though. Purdue and Minnesota are basically the same team. They're both pass-wacky but can't defend the run at all. The only real difference between them? Purdue has a proven running back. Minnesota doesn't. Always go with the team that can strike at its opponent's weakness. Purdue 34, Minnesota 31.

FAKE MIAMI @ NORTHWESTERN

Fake Miami has lost 10 games in a row, all by at least 10 points.

Northwestern has been at least modestly disappointing in four of its five games this season. Last week Purdue turned the ball over six times and still came within one play of beating the Wildcats.

NU might get running back Stephen Simmons back this week. Simmons hasn't played since the second game of the season. If he does play, it will be in a limited role behind Arby Fields. I wouldn't play him, though. Why risk aggravating his injury in a game in which he probably won't be needed? Northwestern 35, Fake Miami 10.

WISCONSIN @ OHIO STATE

Ohio State has played lights out since losing to USC. It has been nothing short of dominant in its last three games. Of course, those games have been against Toledo, Illinois, and Indiana. Not exactly Murderers Row, you know?

But could you put Wisconsin on Murderers Row? Their 5-0 record would suggest that you could, and if it's possible to kill an opponent with passing, Scott Tolzien is just the man to do it. As long as John Clay can stay at the level he played at last week, there isn't a great defensive game plan to beat the Badgers.

Sometimes the best defense is a good offense, however, and OSU has one. Wisconsin, meanwhile has given up at least 20 points to every team it has played except for Wofford. The Badgers don't have the defense to go into Columbus and win, but there's a chance this could be the last time the Badgers lose this season. Ohio State 30, Wisconsin 27.

EASTERN ILLINOIS @ PENN STATE

Joe Paterno would like you to know that Eastern Illinois is a very good football team. They have a quarterback who transferred from Iowa and a running back who transferred from Michigan. They deserve nothing but the utmost respect and this is going to be a very, very tough game. People who think Penn State's nonconference schedule is a bit too soft just don't get it.

Count me among those who just don't get it. Penn State 41, Eastern Illinois 3.

Know Your Nonconference Tomato Can: Eastern Illinois

Yes, I know. Except for Wofford, this season's tomato cans have pretty much been teachers' colleges gone Hollywood. But hang on, here's one that actually sends people to Hollywood.

Located in the downstate burg of Charleston, tantalizingly close to the greater Mattoon metropolitan area, Eastern Illinois University can boast some big-name acting talent among its alumni. Three-time Oscar nominee Joan Allen has a degree from EIU, for instance. Then there's three guys who went to Eastern without graduating but still managed to make a name for themselves in Hollywood: Burl Ives, Jerry Van Dyke and John Malkovich.

But what does EIU have to do with football? Plenty. EIU is the alma mater of Dallas Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo, who is pretty Hollywood himself. He's not the only Panther to make a name in the NFL, either. Current head coaches Brad Childress (Minnesota) and Sean Payton (New Orleans) also played football for Eastern Illinois, as did long-time Raider and Bronco coach Mike Shanahan. That's not bad for a school of 12,000 students located at least two hours from anyplace.

Next week's games:

• Illinois @ Indiana: Amazingly, one team is guaranteed to win
• Delaware State @ Michigan: I checked; DSU actually exists
• Northwestern @ Michigan State: a/k/a Disappointment Bowl II
• Minnesota @ Penn State: Potential trap game for the Nits
• Ohio State @ Purdue: Potential trap month for the Buckeyes
• Iowa @ Wisconsin: At least there's one game worth watching