Pickin' On the Big Ten: Wake Me Up When Spartember Ends

Every Thursday, Pickin' On the Big Ten tries to make sense out of the upcoming weekend's games.

It was not supposed to be like this for Mark Dantonio and the Michigan State Spartans. Sure, they lost in the Capital One Bowl last season, but not by much, which is why many people tagged them as the Big Ten's third-best team going into this year. It was going to be hard to replace Brian Hoyer and Javon Ringer, but at long last things were looking up for Sparty.

Now, after a heart-shattering 1-3 start, things are still looking up, if only because "up" is the only direction left. Now it's time to pull the wreckage of this season out of the ditch to see what can be salvaged.

The news isn't all bad. There isn't an unwinnable game left on the schedule, and all the really good teams they still have to play are coming to East Lansing. The Spartans have proven they can score points, which was a huge concern in the preseason.

But ugh, that defense. Everybody's throwing on the Spartans. The numbers have got to be killing Dantonio. Try a 65.2 percent opponents' completion rate for starters. How about giving up five touchdown passes for every interception? And only 17 schools have given up more first downs on passing plays than MSU has. Fortunately, two of those schools are Western Michigan and Purdue, who are still on the schedule. A bowl game certainly isn't out of the question. Getting back to New Year's Day probably is at this point.

Is Michigan State the Big Ten's biggest disappointment of September? Probably. You could make a case for Illinois, since the Illini have been all but useless against Football Bowl Subdivision opponents. However, in order to be a disappointment, people first have to expect something of you, and I didn't expect anything from Illinois this season. Likewise, not many had Northwestern pegged as a .500 team at the end of September. I thought their defense would be a lot better than it has proven to be.

Okay, now, before we get on to the games, let me just address one little topic. A number of you have been wondering what happened to the funny team names. The guys at Black Heart Gold Pants had me as a guest on their podcast this week and asked that very question. I'll tell you what I told them. After 11 seasons of writing this column, I'm just plain out of ideas for the team names. Dropping them was nobody's decision but my own. Besides, I know they were confusing some of you.

This is where you come in.

I'll make a deal: If one of you comes up with team names for one game every week, I'll come up with names for one game as well. You can scroll down to the bottom of the page to see next week's games. Give it your best shot and send the results to me at pickbigten@gmail.com. The winner gets immortalized in the column, which is my polite way of saying that I don't have any prizes to give you.

Right. The games.

PENN STATE at ILLINOIS

For Penn State, there are two possible ways they can play in their first game after yet another season-altering loss to Iowa. They're the same two options any team has after a letdown. Option A is to recognize that the season is far from over, there are still many things to play for, and this is the first game of their undefeated last two-thirds of the season. Penn State is a team which doesn't lack leadership and talent. Ohio State can be had. They got them last year in Columbus, didn't they? With a little help from the rest of the conference, another Rose Bowl bid could be theirs. All they have to do is TCB from here on out.

Option B is to collapse in a giant cloud of fear, panic, feathers, and clucking, sort of like when a chicken truck overturns on the freeway during rush hour. This is the option Illinois appears to have chosen during the first quarter of the Missouri game.

Possessors of enough offensive firepower that they could have a seat on the UN Security Council, the Illini have scored a grand total of zero touchdowns against FBS opponents. It isn't enough to say that their passing offense, despite the presence of Juice Williams, is the worst in the Big Ten. It's the fifth-worst in the nation. Granted, they've played one few game than most teams, but who's further down the list than they are? The three service academies and Eastern Michigan.

Given these facts, what are the odds that Illinois can get anything at all done against the Big Ten's statistically-best defense? About the same as a runaway chicken's chances against six lanes of Buicks, I'd say. Penn State 28, Illinois 3

OHIO STATE at INDIANA

The last person to score on the Buckeyes was USC's Stafon Johnson, who I sincerely hope is doing well. Let us not forget that the USC game was in week two, and it's now week five.

However, I predict that the scoreless streak ends this week. Indiana's offense has really come together since their opening-night scare from Eastern Kentucky, but what is making the difference right now for the Hoosiers is the one biggest question everybody had about them in the offseason: the run defense. Of the two teams in this game, one has allowed fewer yards on the ground than the other. Ohio State is not that team.

Of course, one reason why is because IU's pass defense is a little soft. It's not bad. It just isn't great. That should help OSU improve some of their passing numbers, which are among the very worst in the Big Ten. (Wasn't Terrelle Pryor supposed to change all of that?)

The Buckeyes will learn what Michigan did last week: Indiana is no gimme. I don't think Ohio State loses this game, but you might have a hard time finding a unopened bottle of Pepto-Bismol in Columbus after this one is over. Ohio State 24, Indiana 10

ARKANSAS STATE at IOWA

Give Iowa credit: At least they're playing a good Sun Belt team.

The Red Wolves are a run-first kind of team. Tailback Reggie Arnold has scored seven touchdowns in three games and sits third among Sun Belt running backs in yards per game. Arkansas State was in a total dogfight last week with Troy, losing only because they bobbled a punt midway through the fourth quarter. That's not bad when you consider Troy outgained them by more than 200 yards. That's a testimony to the stoutness of ASU's defense, which held Nebraska to just 136 yards on the ground. It would be dangerous for Iowa to overlook the Red Wolves, particularly because the Hawkeye offense hasn't exactly been wonderful thus far.

(Seriously, Hawkeye fans, you know I'm one of you, so believe me when I say this: You do not want to go to a BCS game with this offense.)

Despite ASU's run-stopping ability, the Red Wolves have not intercepted a single pass this season. This could be a good game for Ricky Stanzi to build some confidence in the pocket, particularly since Iowa's defense is going to give him a big, big cushion to work with. As long as Iowa isn't looking ahead to next week and Michigan, they should easily win this game. Iowa 38, Arkansas State 0.

Know Your Nonconference Tomato Can: Arkansas State

Located in Jonesboro, Arkansas, atop the geological oddity known as Crowley's Ridge, Arkansas State has grown from its original role as a regional agriculture school to become a full-fledged university offering doctorates in biomedical sciences, educational leadership, environmental science, and something called "heritage studies."

With over 11,000 students, ASU is Arkansas' third-largest university and boasts a proud heritage in football. The Red Wolves (formerly the Indians) just moved up to Division I-A in 1992 but before then had already produced two players familiar to many NFL fans: New York Giants running back Maurice Carthon and linebacker Bill Bergey, who spent most of his career with the Philadelphia Eagles, went to four Pro Bowls, and was at one point the NFL's highest-paid defensive player. Other notable ASU alumni include current Arkansas governor Mike Beebe and former Miami Dolphins quarterback Cleo Lemon.

MICHIGAN at MICHIGAN STATE

Revenge Week was supposed to be last week, but go ahead. Tell Rich Rodriguez and his team. I dare you.

We've already detailed Sparty's struggles in the intro to this column. I'd like to believe that Mark Dantonio can get his team up for this game, but MSU just has too much inertia to overcome in a single week. Tate Forcier should be able to shred the Spartan secondary.

That's a good thing, because Michigan State's Two-Headed Quarterbeast ought to be able to do the same to Michigan's "is this really a Michigan defense?" defense. One of these weeks the Wolverines are not going to be able to score 30 points, and then they'll be in trouble. It won't be this week, but until the Michigan defense gets better, defeat looms in the relatively near future. So enjoy your revenge, Wolverines. Michigan 45, Michigan State 41.

WISCONSIN at MINNESOTA

Now that Minnesota has an outdoor stadium, shouldn't they be playing this game in November?

Wisconsin is a good team which could be a great team if only their defense would stop letting opponents back into games. One of these days John Clay is going to wake up and realize he's the next great Wisconsin running back, but until that day, Scott Tolzien and his cadre of overlooked receivers are more than good enough to keep the Badgers in their games. If Wisconsin can force Minnesota into using their nickel package, that should open up enough space for Clay to bring the pain.

Tim Brewster seems to have calmed down some of his playcalling aggression, so he might be able to resist the temptation to make the Badgers run the ball. If he does, he'll find plenty of cracks in the Wisconsin defense and should be able to create scoring opportunities. So, unless Tim Brewster loses his mind and sells out the run defense to stop Scott Tolzien, Bucky's inability to put an opponent on ice should finally lose a game for them. Minnesota 27, Wisconsin 24.

NORTHWESTERN at PURDUE

The first of what figures to be many Disappointment Bowls in the Big Ten this season, this game features two teams that are absolutely being let down by their defenses. That's a shame, particularly for Northwestern. They brought back one of the most experienced units in the conference, a defense that was expected to help out an offense which more or less had to start from scratch. Instead, Mike Kafka's incredible start to the season is being overshadowed by their inability to hold most teams under 24 points.

The story is much the same at Purdue, but let's not ignore the elephant in the living room. I too have no idea why Danny Hope called that time out against Notre Dame last week. Situationally, it looked like the wrong thing to do. Before you come crashing down on Hope's head, though, remember that no football game actually comes down to a single play. Games are always won and lost before the last few plays of the game, even if those last few plays wind up changing the lead. You can always find a few coulda-woulda-shouldas earlier in the game which may have changed the outcome. So cut Hope a little slack, okay? But only a little, because it sure didn't make sense to me either.

This game boils down to a question of which stinky defense can stink the least. The two offenses are essentially interchangeable, so who do you trust? I'll trust the team that didn't just lose at home by eleven points. Purdue 37, Northwestern 28.

Next week's games:

• Michigan State at Illinois: A momentary reprieve for somebody
• Indiana at Virginia: This could be the game that finally gets Al Groh fired
• Michigan at Iowa: Front-runner for Overhyped Big Ten Game of the Year
• Purdue at Minnesota: This might actually be a good game
• Fake Miami at Northwestern: This, however, will not
• Wisconsin at Ohio State: Buckeyes playing three trap games in a row?
• Eastern Illinois atPenn State: Why? Seriously, why?