Heisman Situation Suitably Uncertain

Crazy as it sounded but a few weeks ago, there is a chance neither Tim Tebow, Colt McCoy or Sam Bradford will win the 2009 Heisman Trophy. Maybe that's a good thing. Their journey of inevitability has taken on some water surprisingly early this year.

When BYU's Coleby Clawson slammed Bradford to the turf causing a shoulder injury, Bradford's repeat hopes were finished. He has still yet to play a down since then. Last Saturday against Kentucky, Tebow also sustained a concussion injury while being driven to the ground. It is unclear whether he will play Saturday against LSU in Florida's first real test this season.

Meanwhile, Colt McCoy already has five interceptions although he completed 80 percent of his passes Saturday against UTEP as the Longhorns appear to have turned a corner offensively in pouring 64 points on the Miners.

If Tebow can't go or he struggles and the Gators drop a game or two, McCoy will certainly be the clear favorite. He has the added benefit of widespread public sympathy being the only member of the fabled trio without a Heisman Trophy. Mix in a little awareness that Texas was left out of last year's BCS National Championship game and there's the data necessary to build a sympathy coalition.

All that said, neither Tebow or McCoy are inevitabilities at this point. Their cases aren't runaway trains and a field of competitors is emerging. The most obvious choice would be Cal running back Jahvid Best. Many are writing him off after he fizzled against Oregon, gaining just 55 yards as his Bears were humiliated 42-3. But he should rebound and get into that 1,500- to 2,000-yard range by the end of the year. He has a great redemption opportunity this upcoming Saturday against a USC team that while weakened, has been almost impenetrable on defense. That story writes itself if he goes off.

It is an opinion shared by Heisman Pundit, who also notes, 'Heisman sentiment is extremely fluid and will remain so until the outcome of the October schedule'. That October schedule, by the way, includes a date between McCoy's Longhorns and the Oklahoma Sooners who may just have Bradford behind center again. A poor McCoy performance or upset loss could do significant damage to his otherwise sparkling credentials.

A McCoy slip is unlikely but in any event it takes two to Tango, meaning other candidates have to be positioned in a manner to take advantage. Whether that is Best, or Miami quarterback Jacory Harris (who also had a rough Saturday against Virginia Tech), Notre Dame's Jimmy Clausen, Houston's Case Keenum, USC's Joe McKnight, Alabama's Greg McElroy or whoever, they too have to be scintillating from here out.

A recent example that comes to mind is that of Wisconsin tailback Ron Dayne. Before the 1999 season he was expected to set the NCAA career rushing mark, but stumbled in one game early in the early going. The opportunities were there to unseat him but a reliable challenger never emerged and by the final weeks he was once again the favorite on the way to winning the award.

So we see something similar here, with Bradford out, Tebow possibly missing a game and/or playing ineffectively against a solid opponent, and McCoy possibly staring down upsets to Oklahoma or even Oklahoma State.

Bottom line is McCoy's a slightly vulnerable favorite but like his peers Tebow and Bradford not a runaway favorite. This is the best that could be asked of the Heisman race for folks bored by the seeming inevitability of the three major preseason candidates.