Pickin' On the Big Ten: V for Vendetta

Every Thursday, Pickin' On the Big Ten previews the weekend's action, settling the scores before the scores are settled.

Penn State has declared that Saturday night's game with Iowa will be a "whiteout" game. That distinction is usually reserved for games of the utmost importance, and if you don't know why this game is so important to the Nittany Lions, you must not remember what happened last year in Iowa City. A Daniel Murray field goal put the Hawkeyes on top and ended any hopes Penn State had of getting blown out by Florida playing in the BCS National Championship Game. It's time for revenge.

Penn State, however, is not the only Big Ten team with a little revenge on its mind this weekend.

In Columbus, Ohio State has a score to settle with Illinois. The last time the Illini came to Columbus, back in 2007, Ron Zook's unranked team knocked off the No. 1 Buckeyes, 28-21. The loss didn't prevent Ohio State from getting beat by LSU playing in the BCS National Championship Game but it was an unwelcome humiliation that exposed some weaknesses. Would the Buckeyes like to exact revenge on the wobbling Illini? You don't need a Magic 8 Ball to tell you the answer.

Elsewhere in the conference, several teams aren't looking to settle old scores but do find themselves with things to prove. There's even another matchup of undefeated teams and oh boy, did we not see this one coming.

INDIANA @ MICHIGAN

The last time the Hoosiers beat the Wolverines was in 1987. That's a long time ago. The last time they beat the Wolverines in Ann Arbor was twenty years before then, in 1967. Jimi Hendrix was still alive; Kurt Cobain was seven months old.

After an eye-wateringly bad performance against Eastern Kentucky in the season opener, Bill Lynch's team has turned a corner of sorts, beating Western Michigan in a thriller and going on the road to Akron to win in an impressive performance last Saturday. The Hoosiers have installed a triple-threat running attack like they said they wanted to, but most impressive has been IU's improvement on defense.

Michigan, meanwhile, you know about. They didn't need any dramatics to beat that same Western Michigan team. They got a clutch win against Notre Dame, and they roughed up Eastern Michigan, who gave Northwestern more fight than the Wildcats were hoping for. They're off to a great start as well.

I'd like to think that Indiana has a real shot in this game. The improved defense along with a running game that is just starting to roll will probably make this game a little closer than Michigan partisans will be hoping for and may cause some reassessment of just how far "back" the Wolverines have come. However, the Hoosiers just haven't faced an offense with the kind of firepower Michigan can bring. As long as the Wolverines don't screw themselves over with turnovers and penalties, they should get some separation on IU in the second half. Michigan 34, Indiana 17.

MINNESOTA @ NORTHWESTERN

Northwestern lost to Syracuse last week. That could be my whole preview for this game.

Okay, so Syracuse doesn't look quite as dreadful this season as they have in recent years. It's kind of sad, though, that Northwestern's defense got caught in the lurch as many times as it did last week. That effectively negated a truly amazing performance by NU quarterback Mike Kafka, who was darn near brilliant last week (35 of 42 for 390 yards; 3 TDs against 1 INT, plus a touchdown reception). Still, how do you hold a team to 2 of 12 on third down, as Northwestern did last week, and still let the Orange get in position for a game-winning field goal? Northwestern has a lot of growing to do on defense.

Minnesota lost last week as well but it wasn't a bad loss, as if any loss was ever good. They hung with California, a legitimate top-ten team in my eyes, well into the fourth quarter. If Jahvid Best hadn't been in the game the Gophers might easily have won.

So far Tim Brewster's efforts to reestablish Minnesota as a rushing team haven't exactly panned out. The Gophers haven't rushed for more than 112 yards in any game and were held to just 37 yards last week by Cal. Good. Less running means more passing, which means more Eric Decker, which means more times when we all wonder how this guy slipped under so many radar screens when he was in high school. It's hard to think of a college team Decker would not start for.

Northwestern's faltering defense leaves the offense with little margin for error. That's not such a good thing when you're facing a team which just had to deal with the best running back in the country. NU will have to throw to beat the Gophers, but then, Mike Kafka is coming off an incredible week of throwing the ball and the Minnesota secondary can be beaten. This game could turn into a shootout; if it does, I think that favors the Gophers. Minnesota 38, Northwestern 31.

ILLINOIS @ OHIO STATE

As previously mentioned, Ohio State has a score to settle with Illinois. Nobody comes into the Horseshoe and wins without becoming a target. Some targets the Buckeyes can't hit; some they can. Illinois? Very hittable.

The Illini have only played two games, losing big to Missouri and having an easy time with Illinois State prior to taking last week off. Juice Williams was hurt early in the Illinois State game but is expected back. He hasn't attempted a pass since September 5, and that might be a bigger concern.

Meanwhile, Arrelious Benn is expected to return from the high ankle sprain he suffered against Missouri. Rejus has caught only one pass this season. Look for him to be a much larger part of the offense this week, assuming he's healthy.

Illinois will also have to do without middle linebacker Martez Wilson, lost for the season with a neck injury. Wilson was expected to anchor the Illinois defense but had come under criticism in some corners for not being aggressive enough, particularly in tackling. Regardless, Wilson would have helpful in defending against Terrelle Pryor's mobility, so he'll be missed.

As for Ohio State, they certainly worked out their frustrations against Toledo last week, blanking the Rockets 38-0. By now Jim Tressel probably has his team's confidence back at an acceptable level. Blowing up Illinois would go a long, long way towards getting the Buckeye swagger back. With Illinois having questions on defense and injuries on offense, and Ohio State looking for payback, well, kaboom. Ohio State 31, Illinois 10.

IOWA @ PENN STATE

I don't care that Keith Jackson is 80 years old and retired. He should be broadcasting this game. It's his sort of game. Two teams known for the strength, size and prowess of their "big uglies," two teams with quite a recent history between them, the two longest-tenured coaches in the conference, going at each other in the first game of the conference season in front of the whole nation. That's a situation that just calls for Keith Jackson. Plus there's at least a slight chance we'd get to hear Keith say the name "Derrell Johnson-Koulianos." How brain-flipping awesome would that be? Answer: very.

These two teams are known for the stoutness of their defenses, and that's where all the intrigue will be in this game. The outcome will depend on which team can force the other team's offense to do something it really doesn't want to do, before that offense forces the defense out of its comfort zone.

For instance, Iowa has been almost impossible to pass on so far this season. If Penn State can find a way to move the ball through the air, that should open up the running lanes for Evan Royster and his backfield brethren. But if the Hawkeyes can make it clear that Daryll Clark's passing isn't going to beat them, they'll have the luxury of selling out to stop the run and watching Penn State go three-and-out over and over again.

On the other hand, Iowa really doesn't want to run the ball. I mean, they want to run the ball, but they know they're not experienced and haven't faced a front seven like Penn State's. Penn State can probably leave eight in the box and keep the Hawkeyes from going anywhere.

Thus we have the key to success for each offense. Penn State needs to attack Iowa's known liability, the underneath crossing routes. The sooner they force Iowa to keep a linebacker back from the line of scrimmage, the sooner Evan Royster can really start pounding the rock. Iowa needs essentially the same thing. If they force the Nits to leave a fourth man in coverage, their two-tailback scheme might soften up and confuse that front seven. Even though the strength of each defense is different, the strategy for moving the ball is essentially the same and the first team to get the passing game going will have a huge advantage.

That is not good news for the Hawkeyes. Ricky Stanzi plays like Peyton Manning in the second half of games, but in the first half he plays like Ryan Leaf. You hate to think that a team's chances in a game this big come down to one guy, but if Stanzi comes out as cold as he's come out in every game this season, Iowa doesn't have much of a chance. Daryll Clark and his cadre of disrespected wideouts will find a crack or two in the Hawkeye pass defense, but it won't be easy.

Stanzi has never started in a road game this big before and no, the Iowa State game doesn't count. I'm not saying I don't believe in him; I'm just saying I don't trust him to come out firing on all cylinders. Penn State 20, Iowa 17.

NOTRE DAME @ PURDUE

"I don't think anybody has an answer for Ralph Bolden," I wrote last week. Well, Northern Illinois sure did, holding Purdue's leading rusher to just 64 yards on 12 carries. What was their secret? Ball control. Bolden can't rush the ball if he's not on the field.

Notre Dame figures to go to the running game a little more often this week now that Michael Floyd has been lost for the season. Their run defense will have to improve somewhat if they want to keep this from being too much of a game. The Irish allowed both Nevada's Vai Taua and Michigan's Brandon Minor to go over 100 yards. If Bolden gets even a sniff of that sort of success, the Boilermakers could make it an uncomfortable afternoon for Charlie Weis.

Purdue can't win this game, however. They don't have the defense to slow down the Irish, who have far more talent than they do. The Boilers can make a game of it, perhaps even through three quarters, but Jimmy Clausen is just getting too good. Notre Dame 34, Purdue 24.

MICHIGAN STATE @ WISCONSIN

Technically every game is a "must-win" for both teams, but man, Michigan State needs a win in the worst way. Back-to-back soulcrushing losses have many people writing the Spartans off. And why not? No one in East Lansing is happy with how the team has looked this year. Some fans are even turning on starting quarterback Kirk Cousins. Yes, he's only hitting on 65.7 percent of his passes with five touchdowns and one interception. Clearly, he's the problem. Can't be the league's second-worst running offense and absolute worst pass defense.

Wisconsin, meanwhile, is 3-0 but hasn't been impressive in any of its victories. Not even last week's scheduled beatdown of Wofford. The Badgers fumbled the ball six times against the Terriers and are lucky they only lost three of them. A better question, though, is why they're running the ball so much. Sure, they're Wisconsin, and that's what they do. They're not doing it as well as they used to, however. And what is this, a Wisconsin quarterback who can actually throw the ball well? Yes, that would be Scott Tolzien, currently second in QB rating among Big Ten starting quarterbacks. Who is he behind? You guessed it. Kirk Cousins. How dare he only lead the conference by 2.5 rating points!

Generally speaking it's a bad idea to pick a desperate, struggling team in a must-win game on the road. I think I'll stick to that logic. Wisconsin 27, Michigan State 26.

Next week's games:

• Penn State @ Illinois: Trap game?
• Ohio State @ Indiana: Definitely not a trap game
• Arkansas State @ Iowa: A little bread and circus for the masses
• Michigan @ Michigan State : Speaking of vendettas
• WIsconsin @ Minnesota: A better game than you think
• Northwestern @ Purdue: Fighting to stay alive in the race for Detroit