Looking for Beast of Big East

Alternative post headline: Your Guess is as Good as Mine.

In the preseason media poll, Pitt was picked to win the conference followed by West Virginia, Cincinnati, South Florida and then Rutgers. The top four teams all received first place votes. The point difference between Pitt and No. 5 Rutgers was only 34, while the gap between Rutgers and the No. 6 team, UConn, was 48. In other words, everyone is guessing, and everyone is unsure.

Just checking the multitude of preview guides only emphasizes the confusion. The various mags have picked four different teams to finish first in the Big East. In other words, the Big East is looking a lot like the ACC of the last few years. No dominant team. Plenty of parity and coaches getting defensive about it.

[West Virginia] Coach [Bill] Stewart on the league outlook: "I don't call it parity, I call it competitive."

And somewhere in Raleigh, North Carolina, Tom O'Brien nods his head in approval.

The only things that seem certain are that Louisville and Syracuse will battle for the basement, while UConn tries to rebuild and find a passing game not seen since the legendary Dan Orlovsky led the Huskies back in 2004.

Part of the reason for the jumble of picks at the top is that each team seems so fatally flawed at key spots that it is easier to see them failing than succeeding.

Pittsburgh
Pros: Dominating defense that starts with a strong defensive line, led by one of the best tandems of defensive ends in Greg Romeus and Jabaal Sheard. The offense has one of the best young receivers in the conference in Jonathan Baldwin along with the conference's best tight end in Nate Byham. The receiving corps is surprisingly deep. The offensive line only lost one starter from last year.

Cons: The quarterback situation is a glaring, neon question mark. Bill Stull is still the likely starter and he was horrible down the stretch, leading to his benching in an unwatchable 3-0 loss to Oregon State in the Sun Bowl. Leading tackler Scott McKillop, along with the rest of the starting linebackers all graduated, leaving much inexperience behind. The entire backfield has to be replaced with fullback Conredge Collins, back-up LaRod Stephens-Howling and star tailback LeSean McCoy departed. Pitt also has to replace their punter and kicker.

Scheduling: Slightly rough. Road games could be a challenge. The non-conference game at North Carolina State looms large since Pitt is only 1-4 against BCS teams away from Heinz Field under Dave Wannstedt. They also have to play at Rutgers, who Wannstedt has yet to beat, and at West Virginia.

West Virginia
Pros: Noel Devine is still in the backfield and is always a threat to break off a long run everytime he touches the ball. Senior Jarrett Brown is now the QB. He has experience, good mobility and a strong arm to get the ball to an underrated (and under-utilized) receiving corps. The defense has made strides and returns seven starters.

Cons: Pat White is gone. There is no getting around the loss of the best and winningest player in Mountaineer history. Oh, and so is virtually the entire offensive line, making it a very shaky thing for a new quarterback and giving Devine any space to run. Kicker Pat McAfee is gone as well.

Scheduling: Challenging. While they do have 1-AA Liberty on the schedule as well as Marshall, they host East Carolina and Colorado. Plus a trip to Auburn. Their conference road schedule will make it harder for them to win the conference since they have to go to South Florida, Cinci and Rutgers this year.

Rutgers
Pros: The entire offensive line is back, and quite good. They will allow whoever is in the backfield time to throw, and open holes for the running game. The defense, especially at linebacker looks imposing. There is solid depth at running back as long as Kordell Young makes it all the way back from his knee injury

Cons: Young missed four games last year to injury, and then got hurt in spring practice. Counting on him for any length of time might be a mistake. The most glaring issue is the entire passing game. Quarterback Mike Teel, wide receivers Kenny Britt, Tiquan Underwood, and tight end Kevin Brock are all gone. That's the starting quarterback for the last three years and three of the top four receivers on the team in 2008. The candidates to replace Teel are true freshman Tom Savage and a slew of back-ups. The kicking game still remains a question mark.

Scheduling: Set up perfectly. The Scarlet Knights have the weakest non-conference schedule in the Big East. Howard and Texas Southern (both FCS), FIU and at Army. Their only challenging non-con game is at Maryland. As for the conference schedule, they get the other four contending teams -- Cincinnati, Pitt, WVU and USF -- in Piscataway. Phil Steele rates their schedule at 106th out of 120. No BCS team even comes close to playing this light a schedule.

South Florida
Pros: Matt Grothe is a playmaker on offense. He has been the team's leading rusher and passer. He is surprisingly accurate with a 63 percent completion rate. Most of their receivers are back and the running back depth has improved. The defensive line, led by George Selvie at one end, is right there with Pitt in the debate for best D-line in the conference. They may have the most overall talent in the conference.



Cons: Coaching turnover this past year saw the losses of the defensive coordinator and offensive coordinator, plus a couple others for good measure. There's also the issue of whether USF can win road games when the weather turns cold, as the Bulls are 1-3 when the temperature at kickoff is under 40 degrees, and 2-5 under 50 degrees. As for personnel, the Bulls have only one starter back on the offensive line, so that will determine how much USF runs and how much Grothe just has to run for his life. Grothe is much less effective when he feels that he has to be the entire offense.

Scheduling: Decent. Their non-con is weighed down by having two FCS games, but also includes playing at Florida State and hosting Miami. They get Cincinnati and West Virginia at home, but have to go to Pitt and Rutgers. The Rutgers game is a Thursday night affair in November, so unless it is unseasonably warm you can expect that ESPN will trot out the temperature and issue of a warm weather team playing in the cold. Double the number of mentions that night for their season finale at UConn in December.

Cincinnati
Pros: Tony Pike returns as the starting QB. The first time in a few years where the Bearcats have a returning starting QB. Almost the entire offense comes back including the best WR in the Big East, Mardy Gilyard. Head coach Brian Kelly gets as much out of the talent at hand as anyone in the conference.

Cons: As nice as it is to get virtually the entire offense back, it is the complete opposite on the defensive side. A very underrated defense lost ten of the eleven starters, including DE Connor Barwin and All-American CB Mike Mickens. Just for good measure, there is a new defensive coordinator for the Bearcats.

Scheduling: Moderate. They have games in the non-con at Oregon State and hosting Illinois and Fresno State. Winning the Big East will be tough with road games at Rutgers to start the season, at USF and at Pitt to end the season. Only WVU comes to Nippert Stadium this year.