Pete Carroll Is Frighteningly Good at Coaching Defensive Football

The slow season in college football is a great time to examine various trends and topics within the game. Something that jumped out about the 2008 season was the standout performance by Pete Carroll's USC defense. It posted some of the best cumulative marks of the era in points (9.0), yards (222), pass yards (134) and pass efficiency defense (85.75) allowed. It pitched a trio of shutouts. It will likely send every starter into the NFL along with many backups.

Without hesitation one can safely claim it was one of the best defenses we've seen in the last 20 years of college football. Of particular interest is that it didn't happen in isolation. USC's been building towards a performance like that for several years. After digging into the numbers an interesting trend jumped out.

A statistic I've been looking at lately is points per possession. Points allowed per game is a fairly reliable piece of data, but it doesn't factor in tempo and doesn't exclude special teams and defensive scores that weren't against a team's 11-man defense. After factoring out those scores, plus meaningless kneel-down type situations at the end of halves, here's what USC's points per possession allowed totals look like the last four seasons:

2005 - 1.979
2006 - 1.240
2007 - 1.216
2008 - 0.748

Up, up, and away!

Keep in mind that USC's 2005 defense was solid enough to get into a BCS championship game and was 19 seconds from keeping a 50 point per game Texas offense to just 31 on a night Vince Young went Michael Jordan on everyone.

That 2008 number is off the charts. Opponents punted nearly 100 times, at a rate of over seven a game. They scored just 14 touchdowns while tossing 19 interceptions, losing 10 fumbles and getting stopped on downs eight times. Plus they missed on five of 12 attempted field goals, including several blocks.

We won't see a performance like that too often in the near future. Nor will it likely come from USC in 2009.

The Trojans will return just three or five defensive starters depending on how you interpret their roster. It remains an immensely talented group, particularly within the secondary, and given Carroll's consistency a return to 2006 and 2007 level numbers is more realistic.

If USC's offense remedies itself, those numbers will be plenty enough. For comparison look at the defensive points per possession by the last three national championship defenses.

Florida 2008 - 1.130
LSU 2007 - 1.491
Florida 2006 - 1.033

USC can do that, especially given their trajectory the last four seasons.

Whats interesting is that while traditionally defenses are built through strong line play, USC's strength last year was with its linebackers and secondary. Its defensive line wasn't bad with Fili Moala, Kyle Moore and Everson Griffen, but it was clearly the weak link. Carroll adjusted by making the linebackers more of the power unit with thumpers Rey Maualuga and Brian Cushing, and shifting Clay Matthews to defensive end. He also let jumbo safeties Taylor Mays, Kevin Ellison and Will Harris operate closer to the line without exposing his corners.

The 2009 season should see a shift to a less risky, more traditional approach with better players along the defensive line and smaller linebackers. Its a defense that whether through planning or accident should also be more suited to defend spread attacks thanks to its depth and swifter, more versatile players.

So much of defensive performance comes down to talent and health, but coaching via scheme and player development are areas where many teams drop the ball. Carroll's gotten to where he is by staying on top of things and continually refining the variously named Cover Two, Tampa Two, rope-a-dope defense he helped develop and nurture with Monte Kiffin so many years ago.

Whatever happens with USC in 2009 and beyond its clear Pete Carroll has spent the last four seasons improving himself and his defense in a fashion that helped make the 2008 performance possible. They're not going away anytime soon defensively.