Rumors are swirling, swirling everywhere, and you can't take a single one of them to the bank.FanHouse has already shared with you the story we've gotten from 3rd Saturday in Blogtober, a well-respected Tennessee/Alabama CFB blog, which quotes anonymous sources saying that Fulmer is essentially already out. We here at FanHouse are not normally wont to report rumors in such a fashion, but like Pete Holiday, I'll also vouch for the normally spot-on reporting found at 3rd Saturday. It's just an unsubstantiated rumor (not a tumor!) but the FanHouse Gut FeelingTM rumbling through our belly says that this is the end of the line for Coach Fulmer.
And here's another data point. GoVolsXtra.com, a subsidiary of the Knoxville News-Sentinel, published the following on Monday evening:
No formal decision has been made regarding Tennessee football coach Phillip Fulmer's future, an anonymous source who would be involved in such a decision told the News Sentinel on Monday, two days after the Vols lost to No. 2 Alabama in Neyland Stadium and fell to 3-5 overall.The source goes on to state that a 6-6 record would 'result in a coaching change' and that a 7-5 record 'would not guarantee' Fulmer's job would be waiting for him in '09.However, the source said that big losses to SEC rivals and an upset loss in overtime at UCLA in the season-opener could prove too much for Fulmer, regardless of what happens in UT's four remaining games.
The Vols are sitting at 3-5 (1-4 SEC) with four games to go. South Carolina, Wyoming, Vanderbilt and Kentucky round out the Vols' remaining schedule. The good news is that Tennessee has already gone through the ugliest portion of their conference slate and could conceivably win all four of those contests. The bad news is that the Vols must travel to South Carolina and Vanderbilt, and frankly could lose all four just as easily as they could win them.
More bad news: Steve Spurrier has absolutely dominated Phil Fulmer head-to-head in their coaching careers, although Fulmer has come out on top in the last two meetings between his Vols and the Gamecocks. Problem: those were close wins, and the Vols fielded significantly more talent in '07 than they do this year. Spurrier's Gamecocks are playing better than ever with Stephen Garcia under center and they statistically lead many SEC defensive categories. FanHouse Gut FeelingTM: the Vols won't generate enough offense to win in Columbia.
Next up is Wyoming, a team the Vols should beat. But keep in mind Tennessee barely eked by Northern Illinois at home, winning 13-9.
Vanderbilt isn't known for its raucous stadium environment, but make no mistake about it, Vandy will see this game as their superbowl. Not only might Tennessee provide that elusive sixth win, but the Nashville folk hate orange and have rarely beaten the Knoxville folk over the past two decades. Vandy fields a good defense and is perhaps on par with Tennessee offensively -- they might be favored in this game.
Finally, Kentucky is no slouch. Despite the 63-5 shellacking they suffered at the hands of the Gators, Kentucky gave Alabama everything they could handle in Tuscaloosa, losing 17-14 due in large part to an ill-timed fumble early in the game. And at 5-3, Kentucky has looked competent in every game they've played save one, and their loss in Gainesville might provide an even greater spark to end Tennessee's dominant 23-year win streak.
Add it all up, and you potentially have 3 teams which will be favored to beat Tennessee. Do you see 4 wins in there? I don't.
3 wins? It's possible, but not necessarily plausible. It'd be a big reach to beat three of these four teams with the squad Tennessee has right now.
2 or fewer wins seems most likely. Then again, Fulmer has often produced down the stretch, and seems to perform best when his back is against the wall.
But he was up against the wall when the Tide came a-callin' last Saturday night, and his Vols offered only feeble resistance.
At a big-money program like Tennessee, a two-decade history of performance gets you off the hook for one losing season.
But you don't get any more chances after that.
FanHouse Gut FeelingTM: the Fulmer Era will end this year.
