Most teams are just over halfway through their conference slate and the SEC conference championship picture is starting to take shape. There are teams with relatively unobstructed paths to Atlanta, while others will need an awful lot of help. We're going to run them all down so you don't sound like a moron around the water cooler on Monday. We already covered the path of least (and greatest) resistance in the SEC East race.A refresher on the SEC tie-breakers can be found at the SEC East entry, but the basic gist is this: head-to-head will decide two-way ties. Collective head-to-head will decide multiple way ties, if possible. Otherwise it moves to divisional records and on down the list.
So how are things looking for teams in the SEC West?
1. Alabama (8-0, 5-0 SEC): Listen, there's no way to put this delicately: Alabama has a 2-game lead in the west with three games left to play, and not a particularly daunting schedule. Barring a complete meltdown -- something with which Tide fans are intimately familiar -- this game is in the bag. Beating LSU in two weeks clinches the division, even if the Tide loses to both Mississippi State and Auburn. Losing to LSU is okay, too, but would then force the Tide to beat both Mississippi State and Auburn. Saban's team has a firm a lock on a division race as any other team in college football... it is truly theirs to lose.
Prognosis: If, at this point, you wager anything of value on a team other than Alabama going to Atlanta, you are out of your mind. It could still happen... but I wouldn't bet on it.
2. LSU (5-2, 3-2 SEC): Job #1: Beat Alabama in week 11. That's it. Lose there and the Tigers are done for. Assuming that win, LSU still needs another Alabama loss, and wins against their last two SEC opponents: Ole Miss and Arkansas. Neither of whom should really pose a substantial threat.
Prognosis: If Miles can get by Saban in a few weeks, LSU fans should begin preparing themselves to become MSU or Auburn fans, if they can stomach it.
3. Ole Miss (4-4, 2-3 SEC): Eliminated. Even if Ole Miss were to win out and Alabama were to lose out, both would still be sitting at 5-3 in the SEC and Alabama would have the tie breaker.
4. Auburn (4-4, 2-3 SEC): Despite having the same record as the Rebels, Auburn hasn't been eliminated quite yet on account of the fact that they have yet to play Alabama. In order for Tuberville to work his way into Atlanta (short of taking a job there when he's fired), he needs a few things. First, for Alabama to lose every conference game they play. Second they need to win every game they play. Losing to either Ole Miss OR UGA would eliminate the Tigers from contention (as would a loss to Alabama, for obvious reasons). In addition, because Alabama losing out would include a win for LSU, Auburn fans must hope that the other Tigers beat Alabama and then go on to lose to both Ole Miss and Arkansas. Like so:
Ole Miss would be elimanted from participating in a tie-breaker in Week 10 by their loss to Auburn, and even if Mississippi State won out, they would lose the tie-breaker to Auburn in this scenario.
Prognosis: Getting to the SEC championship game for Auburn would be fortuitious to the same degree that getting matched up with your wife on a "cheat on your spouse" website would not be.
5. Mississippi State (3-5, 1-3 SEC): Maybe the biggest surprise of this exercise for me was the shocking discovery that Mississippi State can, in fact, make it to Atlanta still. Like everyone else outside of LSU, they need Alabama to lose every conference game they play. Like Auburn, they also need LSU to lose to Mississippi and Arkansas (and for the same reasons). Outside of that, all they need is for Auburn to pick up one loss, either to Ole Miss in Week 10 or Georgia in Week 12.
Prognosis: In the grand scheme of things, it's really amazing that the Bulldogs aren't elminated yet. Who's wants to claim a moral victory?
6. Arkansas (3-5, 1-4 SEC): Hahahahahahahahaha. No. Not possible. Better luck next year.
The final result of this analysis is that the SEC Championship game will almost certainly be the winner of the Georgia/Florida game versus Alabama, with an outside shot for LSU to supplant the Tide. Only Tennessee, Arkansas, and Ole Miss have been eliminated so far... but the rest of the teams would need to play flawlessly and also need several other miracles to punch their tickets for the Georgia Dome.
