Most teams are just over halfway through their conference slate and the SEC conference championship picture is starting to take shape. There are teams with relatively unobstructed paths to Atlanta, while others will need an awful lot of help. We're going to run them all down so you don't sound like a moron around the water cooler on Monday. We'll start with the East. Look for the same treatment for the more interesting West later today (Road To Atlanta: Who Can Win the SEC West?).With virtually every team sitting on at least one conference loss, it becomes important to understand how the SEC breaks ties (this link also covers basketball, so some of it is more complicated than necessary for football) within the division. This can get complicated in a hurry, but the basic gist is this: in the case of a two-team tie, the head-to-head winner gets it. In the case of a 3+ team tie, CBS and ESPN get to pick.
Just kidding. In the case of a multi-tie, the combined head to head record is looked at first. If all of the teams ended up at 1-1 against the other two, they next look at the divisional record. There are more steps, but once the multi-way tie has been broken, it reverts to the head-to-head match up. Okay, now on with the fun stuff:
1. Georgia/Florida (7-1, 4-1 SEC): both teams are coming off pretty big conference wins, have identical records, and will face-off next week. Both of their losses came against SEC West opponents, and it doesn't really look like anyone else is going to catch them. The winner of the rivalry game formerly known as the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party will have the inside track. But does the loser have a chance to get back in? Yes!
The losing team will drop to 4-2 in the SEC, while the winner will move to 5-1. In order for the loser of next week's game to make it to Atlanta, they would have to win their two remaining conference games while the other team loses both of theirs (Georgia has Kentucky and Auburn, Florida faces Vandy and South Carolina). That's an unlikely scenario, although smart money gives Vanderbilt and the Cocks a better chance of both beating Florida than Auburn has of sniffing the end-zone against the Dawgs.
Prognosis: the game Saturday in Jacksonville is for all of the [SEC East] Marbles. Win and you've got a good shot.
3. Vanderbilt (5-3, 3-2 SEC): Vandy is off this week, but being only a game back has its advantages. They will need a loss from the winner of Saturday's Georgia/Florida game. If the winner is Georgia (who has already beaten the Commodores) they'll need two losses in the last three games. Meanwhile, Vandy will, in all likelihood, need to win each of their remaining three games against Florida, Kentucky, and Tennessee. Losing to any of them will likely put Atlanta too far out of reach, although it will take at least two losses before they're mathematically eliminated.
Prognosis: They're definitely a long-shot to win, but it wouldn't take anything to terribly crazy to sneak in. Still probably not going to happen.
4. South Carolina (5-3, 2-3 SEC): Are you ready for things to get interesting? The Cocks can still make it to Atlanta! Here's how: first, WIN OUT. A conference loss will immediately eliminate them from contention as the winner of the Georgia/Florida game will finish the season with at most three conference losses. They also need Florida to beat Georgia. Georgia has already beaten Spurrier's Cocks, so if the Dawgs win this weekend, they would have the tie-breaker over South Carolina if it came down to that. Assuming Florida does beat Georgia, they would then need to both of their remaining games. In order for a 3-loss SC team to get to Atlanta, some other teams would need to lose as well. Here's a quick look at exactly what it would take (unhighlighted games are insignificant):
Kentucky has already lost to South Carolina and therefore, if SC wins out, they would stave off the 3-way tie with UK/Florida by virtue of being 2-0 against them. They also need Vandy to drop their games to both Kentucky AND Tennessee while beating Florida since Vandy beat South Carolina back in week 2. This is the only way it would work out. Anything happens that doesn't match the chart above kills South Carolina's chances.
Prognosis: Dire. While stranger things have probably happened in college football, they need a LOT of help.
5. Kentucky (5-3, 1-3 SEC): In much the same way that South Carolina still has a shot because they haven't yet lost to Florida, Kentucky has a shot because they haven't yet lost to Georgia. They need a Georgia Cocktail Party win and to win all of their games. What's more, since they've already lost to South Carolina, they need the Cocks to pick up a 4th loss, but it would need to come against UT or Arkansas, since a Florida win would lock Kentucky out of the hunt. Here's what Kentucky's chart looks like:
As usual, Tennessee is out of the race. Vandy would be out by virtue of their head-to-head loss to Kentucky (hypothetically) and the rest would fall into place.
Prognosis: Even more dire than South Carolina's.
6. Tennessee (3-5, 1-4 SEC): Eliminated. Having already lost to both Georgia and Florida, and being able to amass -- at best -- a 4-4 conference record, they cannot win the SEC East.
Prognosis: Dead in the water. No chart can save them now.
The losing team will drop to 4-2 in the SEC, while the winner will move to 5-1. In order for the loser of next week's game to make it to Atlanta, they would have to win their two remaining conference games while the other team loses both of theirs (Georgia has Kentucky and Auburn, Florida faces Vandy and South Carolina). That's an unlikely scenario, although smart money gives Vanderbilt and the Cocks a better chance of both beating Florida than Auburn has of sniffing the end-zone against the Dawgs.
Prognosis: the game Saturday in Jacksonville is for all of the [SEC East] Marbles. Win and you've got a good shot.
3. Vanderbilt (5-3, 3-2 SEC): Vandy is off this week, but being only a game back has its advantages. They will need a loss from the winner of Saturday's Georgia/Florida game. If the winner is Georgia (who has already beaten the Commodores) they'll need two losses in the last three games. Meanwhile, Vandy will, in all likelihood, need to win each of their remaining three games against Florida, Kentucky, and Tennessee. Losing to any of them will likely put Atlanta too far out of reach, although it will take at least two losses before they're mathematically eliminated.
Prognosis: They're definitely a long-shot to win, but it wouldn't take anything to terribly crazy to sneak in. Still probably not going to happen.
4. South Carolina (5-3, 2-3 SEC): Are you ready for things to get interesting? The Cocks can still make it to Atlanta! Here's how: first, WIN OUT. A conference loss will immediately eliminate them from contention as the winner of the Georgia/Florida game will finish the season with at most three conference losses. They also need Florida to beat Georgia. Georgia has already beaten Spurrier's Cocks, so if the Dawgs win this weekend, they would have the tie-breaker over South Carolina if it came down to that. Assuming Florida does beat Georgia, they would then need to both of their remaining games. In order for a 3-loss SC team to get to Atlanta, some other teams would need to lose as well. Here's a quick look at exactly what it would take (unhighlighted games are insignificant):
Kentucky has already lost to South Carolina and therefore, if SC wins out, they would stave off the 3-way tie with UK/Florida by virtue of being 2-0 against them. They also need Vandy to drop their games to both Kentucky AND Tennessee while beating Florida since Vandy beat South Carolina back in week 2. This is the only way it would work out. Anything happens that doesn't match the chart above kills South Carolina's chances.
Prognosis: Dire. While stranger things have probably happened in college football, they need a LOT of help.
5. Kentucky (5-3, 1-3 SEC): In much the same way that South Carolina still has a shot because they haven't yet lost to Florida, Kentucky has a shot because they haven't yet lost to Georgia. They need a Georgia Cocktail Party win and to win all of their games. What's more, since they've already lost to South Carolina, they need the Cocks to pick up a 4th loss, but it would need to come against UT or Arkansas, since a Florida win would lock Kentucky out of the hunt. Here's what Kentucky's chart looks like:
As usual, Tennessee is out of the race. Vandy would be out by virtue of their head-to-head loss to Kentucky (hypothetically) and the rest would fall into place.
Prognosis: Even more dire than South Carolina's.
6. Tennessee (3-5, 1-4 SEC): Eliminated. Having already lost to both Georgia and Florida, and being able to amass -- at best -- a 4-4 conference record, they cannot win the SEC East.
Prognosis: Dead in the water. No chart can save them now.
