Alabama's Top Recruiting Ranking a Fraud

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Lost in the shuffle of the Snake Oil debates this past February was the assertion that Alabama's top-ranked recruiting class was a fraud because lots of those players wouldn't be getting on the field come August on account of NCAA roster and class-size limits.

Since we all know that what Rivals.com and Scout.com say about a team's recruits actually makes a difference on the football field, it's worth pointing out that Rivals.com has released updated rankings based on who actually made it to campus.

For the Tide, this means losing several four-star athletes. Among those, Kerry Murphy didn't qualify academically and two players, Melvin Ray and Destin Hood, both decided to play professional Baseball instead.

Said Brian Cook:

Both classes are top five but in are overrated by sheer quantity. Alabama's #1 class is actually #6 by star average; Miami's #4 class is 14th by that metric. Both contain large numbers of players with no chance to qualify this fall; it's all smoke and mirrors.

Well, I have to concede that Brian was right about this. Losing all of those tremendous players caused a precipitous drop in Alabama's ranking. The Tide went into rankings free-fall, and didn't stop until they hit...

Number 2.

Oh, the humanity! How ever will I put my faith in recruiting rankings again? The new number 1 is Notre Dame who managed to lose nobody. The rest of the Top 10 stayed mostly identical, with FSU, Michigan, and Clemson moving up into the eighth, ninth, and tenth spots, respectively after USC fell from eigth to eleventh.
Someone will undoubtedly crow about "star averages" which, as discussed in the previous threads, is an absolutely worthless metric for class rankings. A good example of why this is so can be illustrated with the new rankings (linked above):

Florida, Ohio State, Oklahoma, and USC all had higher "Star Averages" than Alabama's "smoke and mirrors" class. Florida and Ohio State both landed one more five-star recruit, but 6 fewer three and four star recruits. Oklahoma landed the same number of five-star recruits, and five fewer three and four star guys. It seems pretty clear that, in a game that is increasingly dependent upon depth, you'd rather have a whole host of really good players versus just one amazing player, but I suppose that's a matter of taste.

The real illustration that "star averages" are bogus comes from USC. Their "star average" was much higher than Alabama's, but they had fewer recruits in every single category. Who's going to argue that they had a better recruiting class?

Nobody with any sense, of course, because recruiting is about quantity too. You can't win the national title with a handful of five-star recruits and 100 walk-ons. It takes talent and depth to make a run.

Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)

8-29-2008 @ 11:34AM

Skapanza said...

Did Brian Cook steal your lunch money when you were younger? Did he dis Bear Bryant in front of you? Get over it Pete, please, for all of us.

You two are obviously not going to agree about Alabama's class or Nick Saban's recruiting tactics. The only people who even still give a crap about this topic already have their minds made up. The football season has started, so let's talk about football. Cook took the high road ages ago, and hasn't said a thing about it since his post on his blog that asserted he would make his last comments on the matter and let it die. Continuing to pointlessly hammer away at this topic makes you look like a kid in a Target holding his breath til someone buys him lollipop.

8-29-2008 @ 11:44AM

LD said...

A long whiny rant about how you are so over it and why must Pete relentlessly hammer away at this subject is kinda like texting your ex-girlfriend 50 times about how you are so over she and you don't care if she's being recruited by Nick Saban. If you're over it, then you don't go out of your way to comment about it.

Scoreboard.

8-29-2008 @ 11:40AM

Nice work, Pete. We're only #2? I think I'm going into a depressive shame spiral. Now I have to explain to my neighbors why I'm taking down the "2008 Recruiting Championship" pennant flying over my house. Oh wait, did I say house. I misread the script. I meant trailer.

8-29-2008 @ 12:42PM

Well golly, I guess we're in Bizarro World. My bad. I didn't realize making a single comment on a forum scored me obsessed-boyfriend status, especially a single comment on the umpteenth post from Pete in a never-ending series trying to draw Cook back into a war of words. I should have known, though. I knew i didn't have a goatee before I walked through that mirror.

8-29-2008 @ 1:05PM

Pete Holiday said...

"umpteenth post from Pete in a never-ending series trying to draw Cook back into a war of words"

I understand that counting is hard. I know "two" is a big number, but I just don't think you're putting in enough effort. That number, two, is the number of posts since February that have had anything to do with that whole mess. And they have been about two separate issues. (I guess it could be three if you include the posts about Clemson, but I still think you've got this counting thing in you if you really try)

If you make ballsy predictions, you should expect to hear about them if they turn out to be wrong. Besides, we all know that if Saban had dropped some random senior's scholarship come August, to fit under the cap, Brian would've had a post about it (and rightfully so).

Facts are facts, though, and for all Brian's bluster back in February, it turns out that nobody was "told to get bent" and the "smoke and mirrors" recruiting class actually turned out pretty solid.

8-29-2008 @ 4:51PM

12N13Next said...

As a true Alabama and SEC fan I want to point out that we at Alabama do not rank recruting classes. We are team oriented. We believe that it takes all teamates, including walk-ons, to make a championship. We do not care for hot dogging after plays or antics that some players or recruits think that they are more important than others. A number one ranking at Alabama means that we won another national championship. Recruiting is only in the minds of the media. Football fans at The University of Alabama care less about recruiting. Just like we care less about the media. ROLL TIDE.......

8-29-2008 @ 7:12PM

D Allen said...

Absolutely worthless? Not hardly. Statistically, there is a very strong correlation between star averages and performance on the field. Here are the star average leaders over the past 6 seasons from Rivals and Scout, in slightly different order depending on which service you follow:

There are a more Conference and National titles between this small handful of teams than the rest of the 109 DI teams combined.

8-29-2008 @ 7:21PM

"The real illustration that star averages are bogus"

Hardly. There is a very strong and obvious correlation between the top 10 teams with the highest trailing-five-years' star averages and their performance on the field. The top ranked teams by recruiting star-averages are almost identical to the top ten ranked teams over the past 5 years: USC, Florida, LSU, Ohio State, Texas, Oklahoma etc...they're all there.

8-29-2008 @ 8:59PM

Acid Reign said...

It's hard to believe people are still arguing over 2008 recruiting, when we're on the eve of a new season! Frankly, Saban looks prescient, on the over-signing issue, and there are a bunch of the signees on the two-deep, a'ight?

I'll be very interested to see how Bama matches up with Clemson. We'll learn a little bit about "the class," Saturday. We'll know a lot more, by the end of the season. The true measure won't be known till 4 or 5 years hence.

Football season is HERE! Bask in it, and enjoy!

War Eagle!

8-29-2008 @ 10:38PM

Brandon said...

dear god dude, why do you have to keep bringing this up. This was OVER at least a month ago

8-30-2008 @ 5:03AM

TLM said...

Recruiting rankings only matter in the impact they eventually have on the field and BAMA's 2008 class is looking like it will make a significant impact in that regard. Stars aside, this class plainly consists of a lot of very talented football players and isn't that the aim of recruiting in the first place?

8-30-2008 @ 9:36PM

rock said...

Recruiting is like a solid dump, invest the time, see how it turns out, then flush it for the next one. (dump or recruiting class )

8-31-2008 @ 12:02AM

Charlie M said...

Well if the recruiting class was a fraud, you might want to tell Clemson that, because from the looks of the game, I'd say you're full of crap, considering the amount of freshman that started for Alabama, with a 20+ win over the supposed 9th ranked team... the proof was in Hi-Def tonight. Roll Tide

8-31-2008 @ 3:49AM

Julian said...

Read the column before you post a comment, brah.

8-31-2008 @ 9:58PM

Yarg said...

Ha ha great article there Pete because they sure could have used those couple of recruits when Bama was busy kicking the hell out of Clemson.

Why don't you make yourself useful and find an important story to report on.

9-01-2008 @ 10:53AM

I BLEED CRIMSON said...

ACID what did you think ?? I think for a "young team " they did pretty good. I also wonder about the #9 ranking of that Clemson Team. They did not impress anyone with the STORM or their fast defence. PRE SEASON POLLs they are not good look where they have TENN. !!!!
Steve