Does Saban Need 10 Wins This Year?

Much has been written about Nick Saban, his current salary, and the Tide's mediocre-at-best performance last year. The most common themes heard when such things are brought up in the media or on blogs are a) how much Saban got paid per win last year or b) that Saban needs to win 10 games this year or face the hot seat.

Insomuch as the salary-per-win theme is a joke, it's actually pretty funny and I'm quite sure that if the roles were reversed I'd be ribbing rival fans with the same types of comments. Sadly, though, this bizarre statistic is often not levied as a joke but, rather, as an attempt at serious critique. It fails quite badly in that regard, but nowhere nearly as bad as the suggestion that Saban has to win X games this year or face the hot seat.

The logic behind the argument goes something like this: Everybody knows that Alabama is a totally irrelevant program -- hell, they might as well be Duke. Despite that, Alabama fans are out-of-their-damn-minds crazy and expect to win football games (the nerve!). Because of that, 'Bama fans don't like to lose (can you imagine?), set insanely high expectations, and compare everyone to Bear Bryant. If Saban doesn't win a lot of football games this year, he's going to be on the hot seat.

The simple fact that other team's fans talk more about Bear Bryant than Alabama fans do is another post for another day, but short of a complete melt-down, Saban's hind-quarters aren't going to be getting any warmer this season.

The reason this sort of thing is so prevalent is because these sorts of arguments are based on the stereotypical Alabama fan. The stereotypical 'Bama fan expects the Tide to win a national title every year, would pay recruits to come to Tuscaloosa if only he could get a few extra shifts in at work, and named his first child "Bear", even though his wife insisted they name their first daughter something a little more feminine.

I will be the first to concede that this stereotype is not without real-life example. The problem, though, is that the vast, vast majority of Alabama fans (especially the ones who have actually set foot on campus for one reason or another) are much more reasonable.

If Alabama doesn't win 10 games this year, there will be at least one Alabama fan calling for him to be fired. Bank on it. I'd guess, however, that there was at least one fan calling for him to be fired at the end of last year, too. The problem with the whole argument is that it hinges on the stereotype being the largest part of the Alabama fan-base and, unfortunately for sportswriters, it's just not.

At the end of the day, the fans have bought into Saban's "process". They understand, by and large, that getting back into conference and national title contention is going to take some work and some time. And while they do want to see improvement, the suggestion that it's Atlanta or Bust for Saban just isn't true. In fact, from what I've seen, the Tide fanbase looks like it's going to give him more time than the rest of the college football world has to get the program back in order.

This is just wishful thinking, of course. Does anyone, especially other teams in the SEC, really want to deal with two LSU's every year? Of course not.

In reality, Saban has another year or two after this one to get back into the thick of the SEC West race. All it will take is a bit of improvement each year to keep the fans satisfied. It's true that, if Alabama puts out another mediocre effort this year, the chorus of nay-sayers will be almost deafening, but most of that noise won't be coming from folks wearing crimson and white.