Big East Preview: South Florida, Contender

South Florida had an amazing run last year beating Auburn and West Virginia and climbing all the way to number two in the BCS poll with a 6-0 record. Then the wheels came off and they stumbled down the stretch losing three Big East games in a row and then getting totally hammered by Oregon in their bowl game. Was it a case of playing over their head early, or did a lack of experience catch up with them late? If those are my only two choices I'd go with the latter. This was a team that should have been playing for a title or at least a BCS berth last year. But that was last year. Let's look at how they'll do this year.

Why They'll Win

The Bulls return nine starters on offense and eight on defense. On offense, everything revolves around quarterback Matt Grothe. He led the team in rushing and passing the last two years. He's exceptionally tough, and draws a lot of comparisons to Brett Favre for his erratic play. He's not an exceptional passer or runner, but like Favre he makes the plays he needs to make. However, he also threw 14 interceptions each of the last two years. With another year under his belt he should be able to cut down on his mistakes and get the rest of the offense involved. Outside of Grothe, four of the top five receivers return as well as two experienced rushers in Benjamin Williams and Mike Ford. Not to mention four of the starting five offensive linemen return.

The defense returns two potential All-Americans in defensive end George Selvie and safety Nate Allen. It's a fast defense that is near impossible to run outside on and big enough in the middle to make life tough. It was a tale of two season for the Bulls, though, as they were stingy the first half of the season but gave up over 30 points to four of their last six opponents. With so much experience returning, they should be able to correct their mistakes.

Why They'll Lose

On offense it boils downs to a question of consistency and if Grothe can get the rest of the offense involved. It's a nice thing to have a leader that wants the ball in his hands in important situations. But it also makes the them too easy to figure out. As slippery as Grothe is, he holds on to the ball too long and tries to make plays he doesn't need to make. He's got a defense that will keep them in most games, but his gunslinger attitude led to a lot of turnovers and cost them some games in the second half of the season.

The defense is exceptionally talented, but they can be worn down. They're not overly big and they spent way too much time on the field the second half of the season. They will be more susceptible to the pass with the loss of both starting corners and the loss of Ben Moffit at middle linebacker could hurt them in stopping runs up the middle.

As a team, they don't take care of the ball and they commit a lot of unnecessary penalties. It's part of their aggressive nature, but it can backfire on them from time to time.

How To Beat Them

Be patient and don't turn the ball over. Their aggressive nature forces a lot of teams into making stupid mistakes. But you can turn that to your advantage because they will overrun the play and leave holes on misdirection plays. Their too fast to try to run around, but because of their size they can be gashed up the middle. Their offense relies too much on Matt Grothe. Force him into making mistakes and you have a very good chance to win.

Prognosis

This is probably the most talented team top to bottom in the Big East, but until they learn how to play consistently their going to be doomed to loosing some head scratchers. If they can correct their flaws there is no reason to think they won't end up in a BCS bowl if not the title game. But until they do, they'll win games they maybe shouldn't and lose games that they most definitely shouldn't.