Big East Preview: Pitt, Wildcard

13-9. 13-9. 13-9.

That upset of West Virginia in Morgantown was one of the great moments in the Backyard Brawl. There is no understating how big that game turned out to be.

It completely changed the direction of the West Virginia program. No national title game. Rich Rodriguez bolting for Michigan. The buyout fight that dragged into July.

For Pitt, it still remains to be seen whether it changed where they were. It had an impact on recruiting as Pitt suddenly collected a slew of late, highly sought recruits from Western Pennsylvania. For the fans it renewed hope that the program was building for something bigger. For the national sports punditry, it becomes a discussion point as to whether it was just a freak aberration that happens in long, bitter rivalry games, or the springboard to a big season the following year.

So, after everything, the moment is over. It means nothing to this season.

WHY THEY'LL WIN

The defense finished fifth in the nation last year, and actually looks better this year. Defensive tackle Gus Mustakas is back from a season ending injury, as is pre-season All-American linebacker Scott McKillop. Last year's freshman All-American defensive end, Greg Romeus, takes over as a starter. There's depth all over the defense. The defensive line finally looks like it is fast enough to stop the run on a consistent basis.

On offense, it starts with running back LeSean McCoy. Last year he piled up over 1300 rushing yards behind a poor and patchwork offensive line, and not much else on offense. Teams would put eight or nine men in the box, but would still struggle to bring down the powerful McCoy.

The offensive line is healthy and adds blue-chip recruit Lucas Nix at right tackle and junior college center Robb Houser. Also healthy is quarterback Bill Stull. The redshirt junior was hurt in the first game, forcing Pitt to play two freshmen at QB the entire season. Neither was ready and the team averaged only 178 yards passing per game.

It wasn't all the quarterbacks fault since they had limited targets. All-Big East, and Biletnikoff semi-finalist wide receiver Derek Kinder went down with a torn ACL in training camp. Kinder is back and is a fearless receiver over the middle. Freshman receiver Jonathan Baldwin will provide a big (6-5, 220 pounds) target on deep plays with his speed and athleticism (he was also recruited by teams such as Marquette for basketball).

With a healthy passing game, Pitt will be able to force teams to respect the pass and give McCoy more room to run.

WHY THEY'LL LOSE

They are coached by the Wannstache. There's no other way to put it. They have as much talent as anyone in the Big East. They have been consistently ranked as having the best recruiting class every year under Coach Dave Wannstedt. Pitt has had players taken in the 1st round of the NFL draft the last two seasons.

Wannstedt has proved that despite being out of college coaching for well over a decade, he is still an excellent recruiter. What he hasn't shown is that he has learned much from his failures as a head coach in the pros. He stubbornly sticks with running the ball, even when there are opportunities to open things up with the passing game.

The questions regarding gameday coaching and getting his teams ready to play consistently have not gone away. All too often the team's schemes and effort were questionable. The same team that held the high-powered Mountaineer offense down, gave up 48 points, and 331 yards rushing in a double-overtime loss to Navy. Pitt's defense never made adjustments despite continually being beaten by the same play.

Then there is still the question of the offensive line. There's no guarantees that it will be that much better than last year. Last year, it had injuries and some very bad play. Pitt's O-line still had 1st and 4th round NFL draft picks playing on the line. If the O-line doesn't hold, it will be another up-and-down season.

HOW TO BEAT THEM

Stack the line. Just go ahead and put eight men in the box. You want to make it as hard as possible for LeSean McCoy to have anywhere to run. You know Wannstedt and offensive coordinator Matt Cavanaugh want to run first (and second, and...)

Force Pitt to throw the ball. Or more specifically, drop back to throw then plow through the line to see who gets to the QB first. The offensive line has already gotten QB Bill Stull a set of bruised ribs in training camp.

Air it out a bit. Pitt has spent a lot of time working on stopping the run. Stopping the pass could be an issue. The corners are on the small side. Only one CB on the depth chart is 6-0. The corners are athletic but definitely undersized with four of them 5-10 and under.

PROGNOSIS

The Panthers are a better and deeper team. They have no excuse not to go at least 7-5. They have the talent to challenge USF and WVU for the Big East, but still have too many questions with their offensive line and overall consistency.

More realistically they will be fighting with Rutgers for 3d in the Big East and finishing 8-4.