Pac 10 contender, as in USC, right? Sure, but they don't stand completely alone this year. Yes, there is another team lying in the weeds that could give the Trojans a run for the outright conference title. After all, ASU did in fact tie USC last season at 7-2 in the conference, so, it's certainly not out of the question. Arizona State looks like a team that could make a legit run at the USC dynasty.
| WHY THEY'LL WIN |
| You can start with the senior trigger man, Rudy Carpenter. Under the watch of new head coach Dennis Erickson, Carpenter was excellent in the one-back offense, throwing for 3202 yards and 25 TD's while finishing second in the conference in passer rating. However, Carpenter was on the receiving end of the majority of the well-publicized school record of 55 sacks allowed, plus repeated other blows absorbed by the opposing pass rush. ASU's O-line is sure sick of hearing about it, and while that unit will feature three new starters, they should have a real chip on their shoulder this season. But Erickson is no dummy, and realized that Carpenter cannot survive another year absorbing that much punishment. So, aside from getting better O-line play, another way to minimize the pain is to simply get rid of the ball quicker. Faster developing pass patterns, shorter QB drops on pass plays, whatever it takes to keep Carpenter upright and productive this season. Two of the top three running backs return in Keegan Herring and Dimitri Nance. Nance led the team with seven rushing TD's, and is more of a physical guy of the two. Herring is the big-play type, leading the team with 815 rushing yards and a solid 5.3 yards per carry. Three of the top four receivers are back, led by Chris McGaha and a big-time deep threat in Michael Jones. Jones averaged 16.7 yards per catch and was second in the conference with 10 TD catches. ASU should be a difficult match-up for any Pac 10 defense this season. Defensively the pass rush should be fierce. Three starters are back on the line, with Dexter Davis and Luis Vasquez two of the most productive defensive ends in the country. Davis had 10 1/2 sacks last year while Vasquez stood his ground with 43 tackles, tops among ASU linemen. Free safety Troy Nolan is the leader of the secondary and a legit all-conference candidate after winning second-team honors last year. |
| WHY THEY'LL LOSE |
| The defense has playmakers on the edges, but needs some overall improvement. The passing defense was a little too soft last year, finishing a mediocre 61st in the country. But ASU also loses leading tackler Robert James, who quietly turned in a heck of a season with 106 tackles, including seven for loss, and four interceptions. They also lose Justin Tryon, a top cover guy with a team-high 16 pass-breakups last year. While the offensive line appears motivated to put the 55 sacks behind them, well, there are three new faces starting up front. New faces on the offensive line usually have some growing pains, especially early in the season. |
| HOW TO BEAT THEM |
| Attack the line of scrimmage and bring the heat. The O-line will be fired up to improve, but somewhat inexperienced. Even though Carpenter did his best under constant pressure, the mileage could become an issue. And ASU's running game was a below-average 77th in the nation last year, so make them prove they can run the ball. What better way than to put eight in the box, confuse the new starters up front, and make ASU show you they have made the proper changes to the offense. Test the linebackers and secondary. While the pass rush will have some teeth, the linebackers and secondary are a little inexperienced. Two linebackers and two members of the secondary will be brand new, and ASU wasn't stellar against the pass last year. Get them out of Tempe. ASU has been excellent at home, including 7-1 last year. But while they went 3-1 last year away from home, they traditionally aren't as good on the road. They struggled to beat WSU by three in Pullman, and trudged through a 4-point win at UCLA late last season. They are just 8-6 away from Tempe the last three years. |
| PROGNOSIS |
| Except for Willie Tuitama at Arizona, nobody returns the experience and production of Carpenter at quarterback. The offense looks loaded at the skill positions, and with the proper tweaks, they could be even better than last year. The defense will probably not be a dominant force, but should be good enough to keep them in any game on the schedule. But speaking of that schedule, it looks pretty daunting. Last year they had the luxury of eight home games, and their biggest non-conference game was Colorado. This year is just a wee bit different. Sure, they play the entire first month at home, but the Georgia Bulldogs come calling on 9/20, currently the top-ranked team in the nation. And it doesn't end there. After Georgia, and then a bye week, ASU must go to Cal and USC on consecutive Saturdays in October. And you can't overlook a couple of potentially dangerous November road games at Oregon State and Washington. November weather in the northwest is always unpredictable, especially coming from balmy Tempe. It might be too much to expect ASU to win the conference, especially since ASU has to go to USC in a game that could decide the Pac 10 champion. But if ASU can upset Georgia, beat Oregon in Tempe and at least split the Cal - USC trip, they could be right in the BCS mix. |
