Big Ten Preview: Illinois, Wildcard

The Fighting Illini were quite the surprise in college football last season, going 9-4 overall and 6-2 in the Big Ten a year after finishing 2-10. The quick turnaround in Champaign resulted in the first Rose Bowl berth for the Illini since 1983, and the team celebrated by getting their butts kicked 49-17 by USC.

Still, despite the embarrassment handed them by the Trojans, the 2007 season can't be considered anything less than a raging success at Illinois.

The question is, will the Illini be able to carry that success into the 2008 season? History suggests they won't as they've generally followed every winning season with a losing season in Champaign, but that was before the recruiting machine that is Ron Zook came to town.

So will the Illini continue their climb to becoming a Big Ten powerhouse, or will they return to the back of the pack?

WHY THEY'LL WIN

The Illini are going to win this season because unlike in previous years, they now have talent that's nearly on par with the players at Ohio State and Michigan. With the players that Ron Zook has brought in the last few years, the Illini have the talent to compete with anybody.

Of course it will all start with junior quarterback Juice Williams, who is now going to have to take over a larger role in the offense now that Rashard Mendenhall has moved onto the NFL. Williams beefed up over the off-season in preparation for a tough Big Ten season, and hopes to continue the improvements he made last season. While Juice increased his completion percentage last season (from 39.5 in 06 to 57.3 in 07) it still isn't good enough if the Illini want to win the conference. Not to mention he'll have to improve his touchdown to interception ratio (13 TDs, 12 INTs in 07).

Juice will have a nice weapon in Arrelious Benn, who was very impressive as a receiver and returner in his freshman campaign. If Benn can develop into the threat everyone thinks he can be, the combination of Williams to Benn could result in a lot of touchdowns this season.

On defense the Illini may have lost their leader J Leman, but they still return six starters, including three on the defensive line. Will Davis, Derek Walker, and David Lindquist will have to step up to help a linebacking corps that returns only one starter, but does feature a potential star in sophomore Martez Wilson.

Also, Vontae Davis has emerged as one of the best cover corners in the college game.

WHY THEY'LL LOSE

Despite everything that's going right for the Illini, there are still some holes. The biggest question mark this season will be how they replace Big Ten MVP Mendenhall. One of the reasons Juice Williams was so effective last season was because defense had to worry about stopping Mendenhall first and foremost, which gave Williams a bit more leeway.

There's no telling if Daniel Dufrene and Troy Pollard are going to be able to make up for Rashard's production, but I know I'm not very confident they can.

Another factor working against the Illini this season is their schedule. Not only does their docket include Michigan, Penn State, Wisconsin, and Ohio State, but the Buckeyes are going to be the only team making the trip to Champaign. Illinois' Big Ten schedule starts off with consecutive trips to Happy Valley and Ann Arbor, so there's a distinct possibility the team can be 0-2 in the conference before returning home to play Minnesota and Indiana. Oh, and there's the fact that they start their season against Missouri, so the Illini may have three losses in their first five games.

HOW TO BEAT THEM

Stop Juice Williams: As I mentioned above, without Rashard Mendenhall around to help out, all defenses have to do to stop the high-powered Illini offense this season is focus on Williams. The spread option attack Illinois employs has given Big Ten defenses fits the last few seasons, but if teams can keep Williams from running wild and force him to beat them with his arm, Illinois becomes a lot easier to stop.

Run on them: Another way to stop the Illini offense would be to keep them off the field. This means running the ball a lot against the Illini defense. While they only allowed 19.7 points per game last season, the defense did give up an average of 132.2 yards per game last season. Not bad, but not great either. Plus, with two new starters at linebacker, opponents may be able to exploit their lack of experience.

PROGNOSIS

While I don't think the success of 2007 was a fluke, I just don't see the Illini matching last season's Rose Bowl berth. While Ron Zook's plan to turn the program around is still on track, a lot of it was accelerated last season due to Rashard Mendenhall's monster season.

There are just too many questions on this team, and even though everybody says he's improved, Juice Williams is still going to have to prove it to me on the field. This team may just surprise everybody and run the table in the Big Ten, but I see them finishing 5-3 in the conference this season and ending up in either the Outback or Capital One Bowl.