The fact that Georgia is getting lots of love this offseason as a potential BCS contender doesn't impress coach Mark Richt, who was quoted recently saying preseason rankings "[don't] mean jack, because if you lose your first SEC game, preseason doesn't mean nothing anymore." Of course, I'm sure Richt doesn't mind any extra national attention from the media and potential recruits that a top-five ranking brings--although it does hurt the "us against the world" mentality that coaches like to cultivate. It's also much easier to position yourself for a BCS championship starting the year at number five than, say, number 15. But Richt's right; preseason rankings are pretty much meaningless. And if you need proof browse though the stats at Stassen.com (they keep up with these things). There's goodies like the preseason consensus (of which UGA is currently a member, and though it's early, I'd expect them to stay put).
Even more interesting is the comparison of preseason and final polls. In the last 10 years exactly half of the teams that started as a consensus top-five didn't end the season there. And the fall can be dramatic: 12 teams since 1999 have had double-digit drops from the preseason top 5 to the year's final AP poll, and six of those fell out of the top 25 altogether. Unfortunately, this is a topic I know a little about, as my beloved Tennessee has the distinction of having fallen from preseason top five to unranked twice--in 2002 and 2005--a feat no other team has managed. Yay.
Yet both of those ill-fated Vol teams may hold a key to why Richt is especially squeamish about a high preseason ranking. Two of the conditions that made those Tennessee teams ripe for a fall also apply to this year's UGA squad; namely coming off an impressive bowl rout and playing in the SEC. In both '02 and '05 Tennessee was riding the momentum of big bowl wins over what, in hindsight, weren't very good teams--reminiscent of UGA's Sugar Bowl blowout of Hawaii. Then there's the SEC factor: more teams form the Southeastern Conference have taken a nosedive from the preseason top five than from any other conference (probably because so many get ranked up there to begin with, but still.)
None of this may pertain to Georgia anyway. They've got the talent to go out and run the table. But a word of warning to fans of the Dawgs (and any other highly ranked team): it's a long way to fall.
