NCAA Football

StiffArmTrophy.com Projects Final Finish in Heisman Race

Posted Dec 07, 2007 9:48PM By Ryan Ferguson (RSS feed)

Filed Under: Florida Football, Big 12, MAC, SEC, Heisman, Missouri Football, Arkansas Football, Hawaii Football

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Spoiler alert! If you continue reading, you'll be privy to the name of the student-athlete who will win the Heisman Trophy on Saturday night, and you'll also know who will come in as runner-up. In fact, there's an odds-on chance you'll know exactly how all four finalists will finish.

Want to surprise and impress your non-blog reading friends with your Heisman prescience? Simply tell them that you know exactly what order the finalists will finish and what percentage of the total vote they'll get.

How will you be able to do this? By way of StiffArmTrophy.com, which has to be the coolest of all the Heisman websites out there; it's like the early exit poll for college football's most prestigious individual award. The website tracks publicly announced ballots, whether they be in print, over the radio or on TV, and projects the winner.

Does it work? Yes. Since 2002, SAT has correctly projected the winner and runner-up.

Since then, the website has correctly nailed the Top 3 (2006), the Top 4 (2003) and Top 5 (2005) in the correct order of finish. The average margin of error is anywhere from 1-4%, so for extremely tight races the site is less accurate.

As it happens, despite what ESPN might be advertising as a "close race," the 2007 race isn't that tight at all... except for 3rd and 4th place, which are close enough to fall just within that aforementioned margin. The victor in this race will win comfortably, and the runner-up will be defined with a similar cushion in statistical margin.

Ready for the results? Here you go... after the jump.


#4: Chase Daniel, QB, Missouri
Projected total points: 364. Projected total %: 13.1%

Why he's a finalist: Chase Daniel had a phenomenal year as a quarterback in '07, throwing for 4,170 yards, 33 TDs and only 10 INTs. He has a QB rating of 151.91 and led Mizzou to a #1 ranking.

Why he didn't win it: The two losses to Oklahoma -- the best team Mizzou played all year -- eroded voter confidence that Daniel could play at a Heisman level against a Top 10 team not named Kansas. A win over Oklahoma in the Big 12 championship game most likely would have made a seismic shift in voter perception, but it wasn't to be.

Next year?: Daniel will be an early Heisman favorite in his senior year at Mizzou.

#3: Colt Brennan, QB, Hawaii
Projected total points: 514. Projected total %: 18.5%

Why he's a finalist: Brennan led Hawaii to an undefeated regular season and BCS bowl bid. He threw for 4,174 yards, 38 TDs and 14 INTs. His QB rating is 166.3.

Why he didn't win it: There's a reason Hawaii's undefeated and still isn't being given a chance to play in the BCS Title game, despite the fact that two teams with a combined 3 losses between them are playing for the championship. That reason is Hawaii's schedule; their toughest opponent was 4-8 Washington. Close wins over Louisiana Tech (45-44), Nevada (28-26), and Fresno State (37-30) did little to help matters. Brennan also has some character issues in his past, but I don't think they played a significant role in how voters viewed him. Hawaii's weak schedule is a burden that Brennan has to carry when being considered for an honor as prestigious as the Heisman Trophy, and that burden has translated into a distant 3rd-place finish behind the top 2 finalists.

Next year?: It's off the pros for senior Brennan; if Warriors' head coach June Jones is to be believed, he's one of the best pro prospects ever. We'll see.

#2: Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas
Projected total points: 1510. Projected total %: 54.5%

Why he's a finalist: Darren McFadden is easily the finest running back in the country. Despite sharing the load with fellow superstar Felix Jones, he still rushed for 1,725 yards in the regular season for a 5.7 YPC average. He has 15 rushing TDs, 1 TD reception, and for good measure, threw 4 more. He had monster games against South Carolina (321 yards) and LSU (206 yards) and rushed for over a hundred in all but three games. He is a likely Top 2 NFL draft pick should he decide to forgo his senior year with the Razorbacks.

Why he didn't win it: "D-Mac" came into the 2007 season as a favorite to win the Trophy. If he had managed this Heisman-like season in a year when our Heisman winner wasn't playing football, he'd likely have won it this year, now that he's a junior. Option 2: if Arkansas had just managed to win the SEC West and compete for a conference championship, losing perhaps only 2 or 3 games instead of 4, this year's Race could have been much closer.

Next year?: The "Boss Hawg" says he hasn't yet decided whether he'll go pro or not after the Hogs' bowl game against Missouri, but nobody's fooled. McFadden has one game remaining in an Arkansas uniform and after that, hello NFL!

#1: Tim Tebow, QB, Florida
Projected total points: 2045. Projected total %: 73.8%

Why he's a finalist: What more can be said about Tim Tebow that hasn't already been said? He's shattered just about every record a quarterback can break, and he's done it in his first year as a starter in the SEC. He's tied the SEC single-season rushing TD record at 22, with a bowl game to go. He's the first quarterback in the history of Division I-A football to score 20 passing and 20 rushing touchdowns in a single season. His 51-TD performance against the nation's best defenses is a milestone record that will likely remain unbroken even by Tebow himself as a junior or senior. The Heisman Trophy goes to college football's most outstanding player; there is no other criteria. Tebow has proven himself to be that in 2007.

Next year?: He'll be wearing a Florida uniform in 2008. In a recent interview, Tim Tebow said he was "planning to stay all 4 years" at Florida, but whether that occurs obviously remains to be seen. How many career records will Tim Tebow break if he stays through 2009? Only time will tell.

Looking at the Numbers

As you can see, with Tebow pulling in a projected 2,045 votes to McFadden's 1,510, the gap between first and second place isn't terribly close. But it's certainly closer than the gap between McFadden's runner-up finish and Colt Brennan and Chase Daniel, who are projected to receive only 514 and 364 votes, respectively.

Brennan and Daniel are close enough point-wise that a reversal of 3rd and 4th place is possible; so don't take that prediction to the bank. One thing you can be certain of is that Tim Tebow will be the first sophomore in the history of the Heisman Trophy to win the award, and that fellow SEC'er Darren McFadden will be the runner-up.

We'll be back after the ceremony with any new updates or info of interest. Until then, you can spread the word with confidence: it's an SEC QB and RB duo taking 1st and second place, respectively. Thank you, StiffArmTrophy.com, for all that you do.

Photos: Heisman Woulda Coulda's

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