Can UW Hang with Oregon?

At first glance, one might think that Oregon visiting Washington tomorrow could be a big-time offensive shootout with the athletic QB duo of Dennis Dixon and Jake Locker. Everyone knows about Dixon's fine season, and if Oregon keeps winning while Dixon racks up the numbers, he'll continue to rise on the Heisman lists. And Locker gets a lot of hype for being the dual-threat QB with rushing skills of quickness and power that are rarely seen at his position.

But never let the facts get in the way of a story is the best way to put it. Right now, UW is last in the Pac-10 in total offense. That's right, 10th out of 10 teams in total offense. What happened? Where is the offense that carved up Syracuse in the first game of the year in a 42-12 blowout, and had their way with Boise State for at least half of the second game of the year? The Huskies average only 325 yards per game on offense, which is 31 yards less per game than 9th-place Stanford.

The biggest problem with UW's offense right now is the lack of help for the young QB. Louis Rankin was fabulous back in week one, and it seemed like a lead-pipe cinch that he would be the first 1,000 yard running back for UW since Rashaan Shehee in 1995. But Rankin has totaled only 395 rushing yards through six games, not a terrible total but certainly not what you'd want out of your feature back. Then factor in that out of those 395 yards, 147 of them came against Syracuse in the first game, you start to see the full picture. The good news for UW is that Rankin did contribute more last week vs. ASU, getting 80 yards rushing in by far his best game since the opener. But it still wasn't nearly enough as UW was crushed in Tempe.

I guess part of the problem as well for UW's total offense numbers is when you consider the competition, it's not that surprising. Ohio State's defense has been one of the best in the country in 2007, and UW just couldn't get it done against a talented, physical group like that. The Huskies did score 24 points against USC in an ugly game, but looks can be deceiving. They were badly outgained in that game, and Jake Locker threw for only 80 yards in four quarters against the top defense in the Pac-10. Factor in the second-half collapses on both sides of the ball, and you have a struggling team hungry for a win, mired in a four-game losing streak.

Oregon comes in white-hot after dismantling WSU in such an overwhelming fashion that you have to wonder how much Oregon could have scored if they didn't let up in the second half. It was 40-0 at the half and 47-7 early in the third before Bellotti cleared the bench, mainly out of respect for Bill Doba. Besides, it's never a good idea to embarrass a league foe, no matter who it is. Oregon's got the top offense in the Pac-10, number one in scoring offense, rushing offense and total offense. They average an astounding 532 yards per game, which is over 200 yards more per game than UW.

But the disturbing thing for the Ducks this week is that their health is really starting to be a concern. Some skill-position guys were already beat up going into last week, and then RB Jeremiah Johnson went down with a knee injury, and senior WR Cameron Colvin also went out with a broken ankle. RB Jonathan Stewart is going to get more touches than normal without Johnson, and while on the surface that doesn't seem like a bad idea, keep in mind that injuries have hampered Stewart over the first couple of years. Finding another back to help keep Stewart fresh is going to be vital as the season wears on.

So, on paper this looks like a complete mismatch. But you have to wonder if the oddsmakers might know something that we don't, as Oregon is only an 11.5-point favorite. While that's a solid number, especially on the road, it's clear that some are predicting a relatively close game in what figures to be a wet and windy late afternoon in Seattle. But one thing is clear - UW needs a win in the biggest way right now. A loss here would be their fifth in a row, and would force them to win five of their last six games to become bowl-eligible. It's circle-the-wagons time in Seattle.