| WHY THEY'LL WIN |
 The Bulls return 16 starters this season, with 9 on offense -- including their entire offensive line. There's a lot of experience on the team and that's supplemented with incoming talent that has been improving as USF keeps notching wins and raising their profile.As a freshman, QB Matt Grothe started right away out of necessity and improved nearly every game. He completed almost 64% of his passes and was also the teams leading rusher. He was forced to do everything on the offense. This year, he's got receivers who are healthy. Most importantly, it would appear that he has a quality running back in Mike Ford -- not to mention good competition at the spot. On defense, they return all but one player from their defensive line and have one of the best secondaries in the country. Seniors Mike Jenkins and Trae Williams may be one of the best pair of corners around. Definitely the best in the Big East. |
| WHY THEY'LL LOSE |
 The running back situation is still a potential mess. Mike Ford hasn't exactly wrested the job from a former walk-on who had to start due to injuries and suspensions at tailback. That's not good, because QB Matt Grothe won't be surprising anyone this season.Last year, teams thought that a freshman QB would be the weak link and they could rattle him by coming at him. Grothe showed otherwise, and stunned many with his ability to run. This year, teams will be looking to make someone else beat them on offense. On defense, the one big area of question are the linebackers. While Middle Linebacker Ben Moffit, their leading tackler, is back. There will be new faces on either side of him. That's scary since the weakside and strongside linebackers were the #2 and #3 leading tacklers last year. Last year the linebackers were able to cover for a D-line that could be suspect at times. This year, there isn't a safety net for the D-line and that makes things a little shakier. While Head Coach Jim Leavitt rejected interest from Alabama and Miami. Even though, he rejected higher profile interest, his assistants did not. USF suffered some major losses from the coaching staff, with four coaches moving to higher paying offers. The Bulls had to replace their offensive coordinator, WR Coach, TE Coach (the old one was promoted to OC), offensive line coach and defensive line coach. That's a lot of movement and it remains to be seen how it effects the team. |
| HOW TO BEAT THEM |
| The Bulls, like so many warm weather teams don't like bad weather. Specifically, if possible play them on a cold day. The Bulls are only 1-5 when the temperature is below 40 degrees. A testament to how infrequently warm weather teams travel late in the season and how poorly they react. Their defensive line last year wasn't nearly as impressive as it would seem. They were aided by an excellent linebacker corps that played up since there was plenty of trust in the secondary. Expect more of the same, but with two of the three linebackers from last year gone, running the ball at the defense should be more successful. Their offense last year was Matt Grothe. He did it despite a patchwork and sometimes shoddy receiving corps because he could take off at any time. The receivers should be better but Grothe is most dangerous when he starts to improvise. Keep Grothe in front of you and don't let him start scrambling. |
| HOW TO LOSE TO THEM |
| Pass the ball. Their secondary is aggressive and very good. They don't just cover, but their corners know how to tackle. The safeties deliver brutal hits going over the middle. Especially strong safety Carlton Williams. Last year they allowed only 183 yards passing/game. Passing teams will also face a blitzing and gambling defensive line. They amassed 37 sacks last season because of the faith in the secondary. That doesn't figure to change this year. On offense, QB Matt Grothe is the key. He thrives on escaping pressure and creating something with deceptive speed and strength. He can shake off arm tackles and has great acceleration when he takes off. His offensive line does a great job of protecting and giving him time to find someone downfield. |
| PROGNOSIS |
| USF faces a huge test in its second week against Auburn. Even a close loss on the road in that game will be a big deal. No one in the Big East should take them lightly. They have beaten everyone in the Big East in their first two years. The conference schedule actually works in their favor. They get both Louisville and WVU at home. They play Rutgers on the road for a Thursday night game, but it is in mid-October when the weather should still be comfortable. Their November schedule has only one dangerous road game -- at Pitt in the final weekend when the temperatures could be on the frigid side. Otherwise, there is no reason not to put USF in the thick of the Big East. Undefeated in the conference is not a ridiculous notion. |
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
8-21-2007 @ 10:44PM
chuquibambino said...
nice analysis.. only a few things i'd like to point out:
1) RUNNING BACKS... it's not that transfer Mike Ford hasn't "wrestled" the starting tailback spot from walk-on Ben Williams, but more that Coach Leavitt is giving Williams the benefit of the doubt until he sees them on the field. last year's slated starter Moise Plancher, who tore his ACL on opening day, is also in the running. another potential impact tailback is 4-star Alabama transfer Jamar Taylor, who is working on a hardship waiver to play this season.
2) LINEBACKERS... losing SLB Stephen Nicholas to the NFL is big, and so is the loss of WLB Pat St. Louis. BUT we have Tyrone McKenzie, a bigtime transfer from Iowa St. who racked up 124 tackles last year (8th in the nation) on his way to Big-12 second team, entering the lineup to fill the void. Chris Robinson, who had 7 tackles as a frosh. DE last year, has moved over to linebacker to fill the other hole.
3) RECRUITS... the previous comment questioned whether USF's recruiting can match the quality of other Big East teams. i think the recruiting success we've had after only 2 short years in a BCS conference is reason enough to have confidence that we will continue bringing quality players to Tampa. Mike Ford is a 5 star who decided to come to USF instead of Bama. Jamar Taylor a 4 star who did the same. OJ Murdock, a 5 star WR from South Carolina has transferred and will play next year. Offensive Tackle Matt Hardrick, the fifth ranked OT out of high school, has transferred from FSU. the talent pool in Florida is deep enough to keep our roster filled with quality players, national exposure is chipping away at ACC and SEC recruits, and Coach Leavitt is second-to-none at bringing the best out of lower ranked recruits.
USF has a ways to go, but they'll be winning Big East titles and going to BCS bowls by the end of the decade.
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