Spin ahead to today. There are actually more than five words necessary to preview the Scarlet Knights. In fact, many of the words are polysyllabic, which says more about Greg Schiano's job as head coach than his won-loss record. The big question, though, is whether this recent upturn marks sustained program development, or merely a moment of exponential growth that has already seen its zenith.
| WHY THEY'LL WIN |
 Manifest Destiny. As each day passes it is becoming more apparent that Scarlet Knights fans view Greg Schiano as John Winthrop and Rutgers Stadium as the city upon a hill. To not assume Rutgers will stand victorious -- at least to those in Central New Jersey -- is to chastise fate. Philosophical fallacies aside, the true reason for Rutgers' impending success in 2007 is the Scarlet Knights criminally easy schedule. Featuring the likes of Norfolk State, Army, Navy, and Buffalo, even the Terry Shea-era of Rutgers football could conceivably finish around the .500 mark. But this isn't the Terry Shea era down on The Banks. This is the Greg Schiano era. "Choppin' Wood" is in, along with actual talent. Ray Rice is a legitimate Heisman candidate, and the defense features studs such as Eric Foster and Courtney Greene. |
| WHY THEY'LL LOSE |
 Manifest Destiny is a lie. A college football team does not need a superstar behind center in order to hoist hardware. Ohio State proved this in 2002 when Craig Krenzel guided Ohio State to a national championship. All Krenzel was asked to do was not commit mistakes and allow the Buckeye defense and rushing attack carry the load. But Mike Teel is not Craig Krenzel. In fact, he is a polar opposite of Krenzel. Plagued with questionable decision making since taking over the reigns from Ryan Hart, Teel has at times looked woefully uncomfortable in the pocket. When opponents start stacking nine guys in the pocket to stop Ray Rice, Teel is going to have to become the team's primary playmaker. Regardless of how good Kenny Britt and his compatriot receiving corps is, Teel still needs to get them the ball. That should make even the most ardent Scarlet Knights fan a little worrisome. The secondary issue is that 2006 -- while terrific -- was 2006. Every opponent Rutgers will face this year will be gunning for the Scarlet Knights. Schiano's charges can no longer sneak up on their competition. Questions remain as to how good Rutgers actually was in 2006; the Scarlet Knights will not have the luxury of finding that out on its own terms in 2007. |
| HOW TO BEAT THEM |
| Silver bullets or wooden stakes. Your choice. The most obvious method to stop the Rutgers attack is to neutralize Ray Rice and force Mike Teel to become a playmaker. Assuring the former is likely the more difficult task, as Rice has enough pop to work against most of the fronts he will face in 2007. However, a dedicated push to stack nine men in the defensive box should at least slow Rice down to the point that the Scarlet Knights begin to rest on Teel's arm. It's a very generic solution, but a solution nonetheless. Cincinnati managed to accomplish the feat in 2006; teams should attempt to copy the Bearcats' blueprint. |
| HOW TO LOSE TO THEM |
 Simple: just let Ray Rice run like a maniac. Rutgers is going to have enough on the defensive side of the ball this season to stay in almost every game it plays. The real question is whether a team that will rely on the ground game can generate enough offense to outscore its opponents. Rutgers did this admirably in 2006, and there are very few signs that indicate that the Scarlet Knights will change its approach this season. |
| PROGNOSIS |
 Rutgers is going to win a ton of games this season, but will likely fall short of top conference honors. BCS expectations are running rampant in New Jersey, but Louisville and West Virginia have just too much juice this season for the Scarlet Knights to topple. The real kick in the pants for Rutgers is that it could conceivably pass the 10-win mark and still get locked out of a top bowl game. The BCS will not take the Scarlet Knights simply because of Rutgers' poor strength of schedule. The Gator Bowl will likely fall to either Notre Dame (if the Irish can get bowl eligible) or either Louisville or West Virginia. That means another mid-tier bowl against a vastly inferior opponent. In short, Rutgers is going to put together a lot of success in 2007, but is going to carry the tag of a paper lion. The team's hopes rest on Ray Rice, and if he fails to carry the load during conference play, the Scarlet Knights are going to take a beating. This is not likely to occur, but it is not out of the realm of possibility. |
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
8-22-2007 @ 8:43AM
BMXAction said...
Dear Matt, I'm a little dissapointed in your shallow preview of the Rutgers Football team. The "big story" is not that their #36 rank strength of schedule is below where a #16 pre-season team should be (look at Texas, Penn State, WVU, and others for pussycat schedules). Nor is it that Mike Teel stinks (though he was terrible in the ist half of last season). The big story is injuries and graduation. RU lost 9 starters, 7 of whom are not playing in the NFL. It is very difficult for any team to replace that level of talent, let alone a team that don't pull in top 20 recruiting classes year after year. On the injury department, all-BE LB Devraun Thomson graduated, with the heirs apparent being DeImperio and Bines. DeImperio broke his leg, and Bines his jaw in pre-season practices, to we're down to #3 and #4 at MLB (the QB of the defense). This is not good. Also, top receiving threat Timmy Brown broke his hand in practice and will be out for at least 1H the season, and Jeff Minemyer, the 6-8 tight end who was to replace all-BE TE Clark Harris also got knocked out in pre-season, so the team is shallow there. Finally, two of RU's cornerbacks are out for the season with injuries, leaving little cover for the starters there, as well as two high profile receivers. To make matters worse, Rutgers top 20 punter graduated, and the backup can't get the job done, so Jeremy Ito, the place-kicker, will handle all kicking duties. If he gets hurt, forget it. These are the key issues that Rutgers is facing, internally. Externally, the USF Bulls only seem to get stronger, and probably are stronger than any other team in the BE -- though no one will admit that until after they beat Auburn in week two. So, for Rutgers to finish in the top of the BE this year, the team is going to need a lot more luck, and offensive production, to offset a deeply thinned pre-season defense, and better competition in 2007. I hope that they win it all, but am not convinced. One thing I will say, however, is that QB Mike Teel and backup Jabulani Lovelace are both better this year than last and capable of winning games. Last year, I would not have said that. I think the big surprise for Rutgers opponents is that Ray Rice will not get as many carries as he did last year. However, he will probably have a higher average run because of the greatly improved passing game. People forget that RU lost its 3 top receivers last year to injury, so half of Teels problems were drops and new kids running the wrong routes. Latter on, they got their acts together, so the passing game improved. One final comment. Everyone looks at the Cincinatti game as a classic emotional bust, following a big win. What no one has covered is the fact that more than half the team got food poisoning the night before the game and they were not at all ready to play. On top of the that UC discovered that Davilla was their best QB. Unfortunately for them, they only played him that one day, and now he has graduated.
Reply
8-22-2007 @ 9:17AM
Adam said...
The only thing criminal about Rutgers' schedule is comparing Navy to Norfolk State, Buffalo, and (in a football capacity) Army. You know better than that Matt. After all, why do you think Rutgers has Navy scheduled between Norfolk State and Buffalo? I can bet you the scout team ain't running Norfolk State's offense right now.
Reply
8-28-2007 @ 9:15AM
Metro Sport Stop said...
Great work on the Scarlet Knight preview. Check out my blog. I write frequently about Rutgers football.
I post at two sites
http://www.yardbarker.com/users/MetroSports
http://metrosportsstop.blogspot.com
Reply
9-04-2007 @ 9:50AM
Edmund said...
Teel is much more solid then you give him credit for ...
He has an outstanding record as leader of Rutgers and RU is a solid team .. the games against USF and West Virginia are huge this year ...
Louisville will be hard to beat at home ...
Reply