NCAA Football

SEC Football Preview '07: Tennessee

Posted Aug 12, 2007 9:20PM By Andy Katzer (RSS feed)

Filed Under: Tennessee Football, SEC

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A sorry confluence of poor timing and shoddy internet service, with a little bit of real life thrown in, put the SEC preview schedule all out of whack. But hey, we're the SEC, we do what we want in the college football world anyway, right? So, hopelessly late, here's a missing piece of the SEC football preview '07 puzzle: a look at the Tennessee Vols.

WHY THEY'LL WIN
Good Erik: Erik Ainge had a statistically impressive 2006, finishing third in the SEC in QB rating (151.9) and breaking the school's completion percentage record (67%). But that's not why Tennessee can count on a good 2007. There are two moments in Erik Ainge's career at Tennessee that define him as a quarterback. One occurred last October in the Alabama game. Ainge, who was having at best an "off day" passing, threw an interception (his second of the day) to Bama's Simeon Castille, who ran the ball back to Tennessee's 8 yard line before being forced out of bounds by Ainge. Alabama settled for a field goal and the game stayed close. Later, Ainge led the Vols on a fourth-quarter touchdown drive that won the game. Had Castille scored on the interception, Bama might have put the game away early. But Ainge's hustle in the face of a mistake kept his team in it. As far as Ainge's offensive play goes, he won't have the luxury of throwing to experienced guys like Robert Meachem this season. In fact, he'll be breaking in a whole new set of wide outs. And while that might sound like a detriment, Ainge got a head start on breaking in the new guys, as he and linebacker Jerrod Mayo scripted and ran three full practices without the coaches present during the summer. Keep in mind too, that five of the last six BCS champions had a senior quarterback leading them. I'm just sayin'.


WHY THEY'LL WIN, cont'd
Speaking of Mayo: he leads a talented if inexperienced group of linebackers. The group includes one of last year's All-SEC Freshman linebackers Rico McCoy and one of the class of 2007's most highly ranked players, Chris Donald. In fact, defensive coordinator John Chavis is toying with a 3-4 defense at times just to get more LBs on the field. Like UT's wide receivers, the defensive backs will be green, but they're led by senior Jonathan Hefney, the team's leading returning tackler. If JT Mapu and Demonte Bolden can shore up the interior defense line with Antonio Reynolds, Xavier Mitchell, and possibly freshman Ben Martin giving a good pass rush, it will help the new DBs tremendously. If not, at least Chavis has leadership in the right places.

Coaches: Speaking of Chavis, now that he's been rejoined in the coaching boot by offensive coordinator David Cutcliffe, Vol fans have plenty of reason for optimism. In the years that Fulmer has had both Chavis and Cutcliffe as coordinators, Tennessee's record is 53-8. Tennessee is sometimes criticized for being unimaginative, but with Chavis' aforementioned 3-4 defense and Cutcliffe's rumored no-huddle offense, it will be interesting to see what the Vols can cook up this season.
WHY THEY'LL LOSE
Bad Erik: Earlier I mentioned one of the plays that define Erik Ainge. The other one is when Ainge tried to shot-put the ball out of his own endzone in Baton Rouge, the ball landing in the hands of a Tiger player and instantly becoming a touchdown. Tennessee wound up winning that game, but it wasn't because of Ainge. It was Rick Clausen's heroics that saved the day and, in the process, furthered the ongoing quarterback controversy of the 2005 season. Perhaps saying that those two plays have already defined Ainge is incorrect. It's more like one of those two plays will end up defining him. Depending on how this season goes, Ainge will either be the boneheaded underachiever that he was in that '05 LSU game, or he'll be the leader he was last year and this offseason.

Inexperience and immaturity: Tennessee is breaking in new players at key positions, namely wide receiver and defensive back. There are plenty of highly touted players ready to take those spots, but how quickly they acclimate themselves will make a big difference in how Tennessee's year goes. Especially troubling is the Vols' lack of proven playmakers. Running back LaMarcus Coker is the biggest weapon Fulmer has at his disposal, but he can't be trusted to keep himself eligible. And there's always the chance that the new style of defense and the no-huddle offense will be too much for the new guys to absorb to make a difference early.

Misalignment of planets, er, schedule: With parity the order of the day, it can easily be less about who you play and more about when and where. Tennessee has to go to Florida early, a place the Vols don't traditionally fare well. Tennessee travels to Alabama, too, and Tuscaloosa was a snake pit the last time UT made the trip. Georgia's at home, but Tennessee hasn't beaten the Dawgs in Neyland this decade. Then there's the trip to Lexington to end the year, and with the abnormally high amount of talent UK has right now, if the 'Cats don't beat Tennessee this season it might never happen. The SEC East champ could easily have two losses going into Atlanta, but there's four potential losses for the Vols right there. And I didn't even mention South Carolina or Arkansas.

HOW TO BEAT THEM
Sack up: Tennessee gave up 19 sacks last year, but over half of those came in their four losses. Cutcliffe wants to throw the ball, and if the QB's on his butt, that gets real difficult. Coach Cut has said that he wants to run and be more balanced this season, but he's a quarterbacks guy at heart; he's gonna throw. Pour on pressure and hope those frosh WRs run the wrong route.

Run, Forrest, run: If the QB pressure thing works and you force Tennessee to punt, return the punt. The Vols' secret but-not-so-secret weapon is punter Britton Colquitt, who has the ability to flip field position on you at any time. He wants you to fair catch or let the ball go out of bounds at the three. Take a chance, return the sucker. Trust me, Tennessee's coverage teams aren't that great.

If all else fails, run the triple option. It dang near worked for Air Force last year.
HOW TO LOSE TO THEM
Let Ainge get comfy: In all but one of Tennessee's wins last year, Erik Ainge outpassed the opposing QB. And in doing so, he was barely touched, getting sacked just eight times. And that's even more impressive when you consider he was well over 300 pass attempts in those games. Even with inexperienced receivers, if Ainge has time to operate, he will be dangerous.

Fall asleep on the run: Last year, UT was disproportionally pass-heavy, a fault that Cutcliffe has promised to fix this year. Other than the aforementioned Coker -- who may or may not keep himself out of trouble long enough to play -- the Vol running backs aren't flashy but are solid enough to make a difference. I mentioned how Cutcliffe is a QB coach at heart, but if you have to sell out to keep Ainge in check, Tennessee can beat you on the ground... a proposition Fulmer would probably prefer anyway.
PROGNOSIS
The SEC East team that goes to Atlanta will be less the "winner" of the division and more the survivor. UT could easily be a 6-2 or even 5-3 team in conference play and still get to the Georgia Dome. I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see the Vols start the season 1-2 (losses to Cal and Florida) and then win eight of the last nine to take the division.

Tags: SEC+Football+Preview+07, SecFootballPreview07

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