Big 12 Football Preview '07: Texas

Texas. Home to the Burnt Orange Nation. And quarterbacks named Colt. And, of much annoyance, Matthew McConnaughey. But we'll forgive them this one time because their football team is loaded this year and everyone loves a winner.

The 'Horns have a lot of good guys coming back and some things to prove after slipping a bit to 10-3 last year (10-2 U ?). Two close games went their way last year - a 35-31 win over Texas Tech and the straight up manna from heaven 22-20 luck job against Nebraska.

Evening things out a bit, two close games also went the other way - a 45-42 loss to Kansas State and a 12-7 loss to rival Texas A&M. One theme from both losses: quarterback Colt McCoy got knocked out of each game. Kid's tough, but when you're on your butt, you're on your butt. If he's on the field full time in 2007, this team should be good good good.

WHY THEY'LL WIN

Since Mack Brown arrived in Austin, all this program has done is win, win, win. It took a transformational player like Vince Young to get the program over the top against Oklahoma and into a national championship, but they were plenty good before him and continue to be good after him. Brown sports a nifty 93-22 record here, with just 14 conference losses in his nine seasons. There's no clear threat to the Texas/Oklahoma hegemony atop this conference, so count on another record like last year's at worst. As a bonus, there's no Ohio State on the schedule and Colt McCoy won't be performing his "Bambi's awkward first steps" act against week two foe TCU (see Texas/Ohio State, 2006) As a matter of analysis, I should mention that this team is strong along the defensive line, fairly solid at linebacker and athletic but inexperienced in the secondary. However, two back-to-back loaded recruiting classes are making a huge push to contribute to those position groups. On offense, Colt McCoy is back and has added pounds to that 6-3 frame to absorb some of the beatings he couldn't get up from last year. Jamaal Charles slightly disappointed last year and in response added weight and an extra chip on his shoulder. The receivers go five strong with several other youngsters also making a push. The offensive line looks a little down from previous units, but the optimist will say that's picking a nit. All the 'Horns' flaws are relative, as this looks like a top 10 or top 15 team at worst and more likely a legitimate back of the pack national title contender. Good times are ahead.

WHY THEY'LL LOSE

Let's pick that offensive line nit, shall we? Guard Cedric Dockery's a NFL draft type player and nothing to shy away from. Left tackle Tony Hills has been decent if unspectacular. After that, however, we've got question marks. Senior Dallas Griffin will be a one-and-done starter at center, the most difficult position on the line. Guard Charlie Tanner is highly regarded but 1)young and 2)has yet to make a collegiate start. Right tackle Adam Ulatoski started the last seven games of last year as a redshirt freshman. That bodes well for his career getting starts that early but I haven't seen much in the way of "raves" yet about him. This is a good but not great line full of very talented guys. Thing is, they've gotta be great. Colt McCoy got knocked around something brutal last year and it cost Texas some games. Jamaal Charles and the entire run game also disappointed. Much or all of the blame may be on him, but at the end of the day the line is responsible for making his job easier and paving some massive running lanes. Colt McCoy's health is now clearly another priority on this team. The kid is probably the toughest quarterback in D-I, but when he's not on the field, this team clearly loses something. He's got an aura about him similar to Vince Young and Major Applewhite. There's no guarantee he'll be healthy the entire way through this year especially now that everyone knows just how critical his presence is to this team. Questions abound on defense as well. The talent is clearly there, but Frank Okam slightly disappointed as a defensive tackle last year. Defense starts up the middle and good tackles make linebackers look great. Texas' linebackers last year ... were not so great. In the secondary, two first round picks must be replaced. I hunch their replacements will end up great players, but inexperience and last year's failures will haunt this unit until they prove they can hold up better. Overall this team lacks that feeling of invincibility. Youth and the post-Vince-Young transition may have had a lot to do with various (relative) troubles last year, but until some guys prove they're no longer question marks, some upstarts may be able to prepare with a mentality that they can beat Texas instead of the mentality of just keeping the game close and praying for Longhorn mistakes.

HOW TO BEAT THEM

I don't advocate headhunting and definitely don't want this kid hurt because he's great fun to watch, but ... knock Colt McCoy out of the game. So far it's the one tried-and-true way to beat a recent Longhorn team. That creates a new set of problems this year, however, as athletic marvels Sherrod Harris and John Chiles are next in line after McCoy. Don't be intimidated. I was surprised how many teams gave Texas trouble last year. A team with this kind of name can almost count on half their opponents surrendering the game before it even begins. That didn't happen much last year. Middling teams like Iowa and Texas Tech both posted huge leads before eventual late Longhorn comebacks. Nebraska had all but sealed a home win in the driving snow before coughing the ball up on what would have been the game-sealing first down. They all played Texas without fear and it showed. If you get a lead, don't sit on it! Colt McCoy will come back against you. He's just damn good at it, and relentless to boot. There's a phrase "they can't cheat if it's not close", and it applies here. Well trodden is the path of challengers who had champs on the ropes. Well repeated is the story of the challenger failing to turn out the lights and eventually falling to the champ. Turn out the lights, don't let Texas keep it close, or suffer the fate of Texas Tech, Baylor, Nebraska and Iowa before you. As far as tactics, frustrate the Longhorns' run game and attack their secondary. Colt McCoy is going to get his yards through the air, but Texas is a bit more predictable if Jamaal Charles is bottled up and having an average day. Every single team that showed life against Texas last year punched some holes in their secondary. Iowa State showed life early and ended up with 302 passing yards before reality set in. Texas Tech threw for over 500 yards. Kansas State went for 323. Baylor built an early but short-lived lead on a 320-yard outing. Each of those teams found ways to get scores and make a game of playing Texas at least for a half. Texas may balance its defense more this year so that strategy may change, but based on what happened last year, that's the formula.

HOW TO LOSE TO THEM

Overused, but true: lose the turnover battle. By my count, Texas had close games (competitive for at least the first half) against Ohio State, Oklahoma, Baylor, Nebraska, Texas Tech, Kansas State, Texas A&M and Iowa. Turnover margin in wins: Oklahoma (+5), Baylor (+4), Nebraska (+2), Texas Tech (-2), Iowa (+1). Turnover margin in losses: Ohio State (-2), Kansas State (0), Texas A&M (-3). We hold these truths to be self evident, no? Lay down on offense. Texas is going to get its points. Like, 30+ of them (unless you're a spirited rival like Texas A&M or two deep on defense like Oklahoma or Ohio State). That means you gotta get some points or it's a walk for the guys in Burnt Orange.

PROGNOSIS

This is a loaded team. Mack Brown mentioned in the spring that this team lacked star players. However, he has a small army of All-Conference type players to go with national star Colt McCoy. Last season revealed some quirks in various position groups and those need to be remedied, but overall the roster and general pattern of success point to another 10+ win season and an outside shot at contending for the national championship. The schedule is quite favorable, with only defense-happy TCU posing any kind of threat from outside the Big 12. Oklahoma is obviously the big game, and the season ends with a revenge road trip against Texas A&M. Bonus: Kansas State, Nebraska and Texas Tech all have to come to Austin this year. The stars could align here, although the challenge will be not playing like last year where Texas was both within a few downs of another trip to the national championship game and a few downs from the first 6-loss season in the Mack Brown era.