NCAA Football

Big 12 Football Preview '07: Oklahoma

Posted Aug 10, 2007 11:00AM By Brian Grummell (RSS feed)

Filed Under: Oklahoma Football, Big 12

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Oklahoma. Where the wind comes sweeping down the plain. Where The Outsiders was set. Where dreams are made 17% of the time. Where Barry Switzer got into strange yammerings about Taco Bowls.

Part renegade, part cavalcade, Oklahoma spent the offseason doing its best "who, me?" before the NCAA. The NCAA said "yes, you!", invented some mishmash punishment and the 2007 season gets filed under "probation".

They've seen this before in Norman, but it doesn't make them any less thrilled to face sanction. Count on coach Bob Stoops using the situation in an attempt to motivate his charges against a middling Big 12 and an improving rival in Texas.

WHY THEY'LL WIN

Oklahoma remains a weakened but viable power. The recruiting remains top-notch but the offense and defense both lack the pop we saw earlier in the decade. Blame that on an exodus of quality assistants and the psychological damage of dropping two championship game appearances, one of them made after an embarrassing conference title game defeat. The edge is gone, but these guys still win lots of ballgames and have gone from ownership of the Big 12 to co-ownership with Texas. Not bad, really, just not what it once was either.

The Sooner must replace steady senior Paul Thompson at quarterback and look to have relatively unheralded options in either favorite Sam Bradford or Joey Halzle. This would be a problem, but Josh Heupel and Jason White were once little-known soft-tossers as well. Oklahoma has experience navigating the national scene with quarterbacks whose chips are decidedly not blue and worn best on their shoulders.

Overall, both the offensive and defensive units should be among the best of the Bob Stoops era. Playmakers abound in receiver Malcolm Kelly and tailbacks Allen Patrick and shifty all-hype-team member DeMarco Murray.

On defense a few veterans were lost to graduation but overall this group is loaded with former elite recruits. The secondary will be considered the Big 12's best, at least until we know what the new crop of DB's can do at Texas. Best of all, the Sooners may have a pair of future All America defensive tackles in sophomore DeMarcus Granger and freshman Gerald McCoy.

This team tends to plow through the non-Texas Big 12 slate, losing just eight conference games since 2000. Once again, outside of Texas there isn't a credible third or fourth team in this league capable of playing to their level week-in, week-out. There is that tiny little issue of Miami being on the schedule, but to the Sooners' credit, that game will be in Norman and not steamy South Florida.

When you are Oklahoma and 50% of your schedule constitutes the following (North Texas, Utah State, Tulsa, Colorado, Iowa State, Baylor), you're feeling good about your chances right now.



WHY THEY'LL LOSE

Although it's worked in the past, there's no guarantee the "unheralded quarterback turns into Sooner God" thing will work again. It was shaky quarterback play under the disgraced Rhett Bomar that contributed to that strange 8-4 outing in 2005.

Also of some concern: replacing Adrian Peterson. Oklahoma went on a tear after his injury last year, but sometimes changing one's role from super-sub to The Man ends up in disaster. Redshirt freshman DeMarco Murray is immune to the pressure of following up last year's Superman act, but Allen Patrick and Chris Brown have to be sweating a bit right now. Fans expect 200+ yard outings as happened in four of the eight games Peterson missed. Turn in a few too many 28-carry, 42-yard days like happened against Nebraska and the season will sour quickly.

Although most of the conference schedule is winnable, there are three pesky upstarts capable of dethroning the Sooners this year. They are: Missouri, Texas A&M and Oklahoma State. All three are shaky on defense but can win some shootouts under the right conditions. Oklahoma must be weary of getting mugged like that. Fortunately, all three pests must travel to Norman and do the miraculous before a partisan crowd.

We'd be remiss not to talk about Texas here. The Sooners once dominated the Longhorns but Texas is now their equal or superior of late. Vince Young shook the Sooner monkey off Texas' back in 2005 and Colt McCoy forged a new era with a win of his own last year. Until proven otherwise, the new reality is that Texas has the slight upper hand in this series.
HOW TO BEAT THEM

Get them early in the year. Oklahoma can be a little slow out of the gate some years. They beat UAB by just a touchdown in the opener last year, 24-17. The next week Washington hung tough for three quarters before Oklahoma dominated the fourth quarter and won 37-20. Oregon felled the Sooners the next week in a controversial but close game, 34-33.

In 2005 the Sooners lost at home to TCU in the opener, 17-10. They were a few seconds away from losing at home again the very next week to Tulsa before some Adrian Peterson heroics led to a 31-15 victory. UCLA then trounced them the very next week, 41-24.

And going back to 2003, Alabama was neck-and-neck with the Sooners until a sneaky fake punt turned that game the Sooners' way, 20-13.

Play physical on defense. Fast, physical defenses tend to give the Sooner offense fits. Ask TCU and USC about their defensive strategies. Ask Texas or LSU. Few teams have gotten the better of Oklahoma of late, but most successful ones tend to attack the run and fly to the ball. Most teams simply don't have the personnel on that side of the ball to make this an issue, but I know one team on the Sooners' 2007 schedule that does: Miami.

Besides, the Sooners are fairly predictable on offense. The overall tendencies vary from year-to-year but they tend to run out of I and pass out of shotgun/spread. It's matchup football and the talented and deep defenses can sometimes overwhelm the Sooner attack.

Finally, play a little Pac-10 ball. Be creative with offensive personnel and looks and don't be content to win a 21-17 type ball game against Oklahoma. Oregon, USC and UCLA have all put up huge numbers against the Sooner defense on their way to wins and with a little luck Washington could have done the same last year. The opportunity is out there for an Oklahoma State or Missouri to do some damage and maybe even steal a win.
HOW TO LOSE TO THEM

Get intimidated by the passing game. Oklahoma annually puts up solid to great numbers in their passing game, but this team's bread-and-butter of late has been on the ground. The pass attack can be a 4-wide distraction, and that's how Oklahoma suckers teams in for the rope-a-dope. Make some stops on the ground and force them into uncomfortable down and distance looks and you have a shot.

Keep your good athletes on the bench. Oklahoma is going to out-talent 90% of the teams it faces, but inferior opponents do themselves no favors when keeping good athletes on the bench. I realize the best athletes at less established programs tend to be underdeveloped wildcards, but their ability to make plays is what gets you into a game with someone like Oklahoma. You're expected to lose anyway, might as well go down swinging, right?

Get pushed around on defense. Oklahoma's become more physical the last year or two, but they can be a little soft in their style (shotgun inside the 10's, anyone?). There are opportunities to push back against the Sooner offense a bit, and teams should exploit it.
PROGNOSIS

Well, there's that September date with Miami to consider. And several mid-level Big 12 teams with potent offenses and suspect defenses might pose a challenge on a good day. I'm talking about you, Missouri, Texas A&M, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State. But really this is a two game schedule against Miami and Texas. The Sooners should have their seventh 10+ win season in the last eight years when it's all said and done.

Besides corner/safety/returnman Reggie Smith, there aren't any real national names to know yet. That may change after 14 games as we get to know DeMarco Murray, Malcolm Kelly and Gerald McCoy. Stay tuned.

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