| WHY THEY'LL WIN |
 Continued progress is the party line in Lincoln. The Huskers have seen their win count jump from 5, to 8 and finally 9 victories during Bill Callahan's tenure. That's no minor feat given the renovation job Callahan faced. Complacency among the previous coaching staff led to poor talent evaluation and a series of modest recruiting classes. Consequently, Callahan inherited a mish-mash of power-option square pegs seeking solace in the round hole of his West Coast Offense. But from the ashes of the option has risen a dynamic, albeit inconsistent offensive attack. Nebraska finished in the Top 20 nationally in both total offense and scoring offense a year ago. The Huskers lost a heartbreaker at home to Texas and fell 17-14 to Auburn in a closely fought Cotton Bowl. Turn those results around and you're likely looking at the Huskers as a preseason Top 10 team this year.As 2007 kicks off, Husker Nation is buzzing about the debut of former Arizona State quarterback Sam Keller. Keller might be the most talented passing quarterback to play at Nebraska since Vince Ferragamo, another transfer from the west coast, pitched the pigskin around the plains in the mid-1970s. Although he'll have just one year to prove himself, Keller should have all of the tools to run the Cornhuskers' offense to its fullest potential. His physically less-gifted predecessor, Zac Taylor - who was recruited by the likes of Marshall and Memphis out of junior college – left as the Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year. That's a tribute not only to Callahan's NFL-style offensive system, but also to his ability to get the best out of his signal callers. An often-overlooked and perhaps even more valuable factor is the off-season promotion of Shawn Watson to offensive coordinator. Unlike previous offensive coordinator Jay Norvell, who left for UCLA, Watson brings a wealth of experience to the job in Lincoln. Watson ran Colorado's West Coast Offense for six years under Gary Barnett. During that time the Buffaloes displayed prodigious rushing and passing attacks on their way to four Big 12 North titles. With a new, experienced and trusted set of eyes on the field, the Nebraska offense could reach another level in 2007. |
| WHY THEY'LL LOSE |
 For all of the progress Nebraska's offense has shown, they still appear hamstrung at times by Callahan's playcalling and game management decisions. Against USC, Callahan was criticized for his ultra-conservative, keep the game close approach. More vexing, however, was his decision to run three wide toss-sweeps when facing 3rd-and-short against a group of linebackers that run from sideline-to-sideline as well as unit any in the country. Sure, the first one actually worked, picking up the first down, but the next two were absolutely stuffed netting a ridiculous –8 total yards. Exhibit B – Nebraska leads Texas 20-19 with under two minutes remaining and faces a 3rd-and-3. All Nebraska needs is a first down to run out the clock and preserve the upset. Now is the perfect time that toss-sweep, which had already been successful on 3rd down earlier in the game. Even if it fails, you simply punt and force Texas to drive 50 yards with no timeouts remaining for the game winning field goal. Instead, Callahan calls a play-action pass, which Terrence Nunn catches for the first down, but then unfortunately fumbles away to the Longhorns. So, yeah, there's that.Defensively Nebraska must replace its entire defensive line from a year ago. That includes a pair of defensive ends in Adam "I must break you" Carriker and Jay Moore who were drafted in the first and fourth rounds of the NFL Draft. Barry Turner is being looked upon to take center stage in 2007 at one DE position. He's showed flashes of brilliance during the past two seasons, but must prove he can line up on every down. Turner unfortunately missed valuable practice time in the spring following shoulder surgery. Ndamukong Suh will anchor the line at one of the tackle spots and might actually be the best player on the defense. Finding someone to line up next to him will be a major task during fall camp. The wildcard might be Ty Steinkuhler who can play inside or out and has displayed an impressive motor in a reserve role. Ultimately, the group vying to replace the departures along the front four is heavy on potential, but light on experience. The bottom line is that a team rarely gets better by losing players like Carriker and Moore, along with defensive tackles Ola Dagunduro and Barry Cryer. |
| HOW TO BEAT THEM |
It sounds trite, but stop the run. Bill Callahan's West Coast Offense is built upon balance, but he generally favors a run-first approach. As evidence, the Huskers ran the ball 143 more times than they threw it a year ago. When the ground game is successful, Nebraska usually wins. In their nine wins in 2006, the Huskers averaged 4.69 yards per carry. In their five losses they averaged just 3.10, and that number is heavily inflated by a 5.28 yard per carry average against Oklahoma State in a game that saw a second half implosion from the Blackshirt defense. Stopping the run might be less challenging in 2007 with the early departure of running back Brandon Jackson to the NFL. Marlon Lucky will look to take his place in a fulltime capacity this season. Unfortunately, Lucky experienced curious medical issues during the offseason and has failed to live up to his recruitment hype. Cody Glenn will also get a shot as a power runner, but he too, has been slowed by injuries.  Nebraska's pass defense was neither stellar, nor awful in 2006, ranking 36th nationally in passing efficiency defense. But the one glaring weakness against the pass was an extreme susceptibility to the double move. Teams on Nebraska's schedule used this pattern time and time again with huge results against the Big Red a year ago. And while much of the team's struggles can be traced to the loss of NFL prospect Zackary Bowman during fall drills, Andre Jones and Cortney Grixby (pictured at right) showed only marginal improvement against the double move as the season wore on. Fortunately Nebraska's corners will be far more experienced in 2007 and Bowman should return from a torn patellar tendon by conference play. Combine this with improved safety play and the Blackshirts could be less susceptible to big plays from receivers utilizing the double move this year. |
| HOW TO LOSE TO THEM |
Give up big yardage on first down. One of the basic tenents of Callahan's offense is staying on schedule with regards to down and distance. Give up five or six yards on first down and the Husker offense becomes less predictable and more dangerous. Consider that in Nebraska's nine wins a year ago the offense gained four or more yards on 47% of their first downs. In their five losses, the Huskers gained four or more yards on just 39% of their first downs. That might not seem like a huge difference, until you look at what happens on third down. In Nebraska's wins they converted 53% of their third downs. In contrast, the Huskers third down conversion rate was just 33% in their five losses. When opponents give up big yardage on first down, they open themselves up to a collection of middle screens, shovel passes and trick plays that had all kinds of success for Nebraska a year ago. Get caught up in the smoke and mirrors. Nebraska's offense features a dizzying array of pre-snap shifts and motions, and at times resembles a square dance in pads. These movements are especially prevalent during Callahan's script as he examines how the defense will react. Rarely does the pre-snap activity seem to amount to much. But fail to react properly to a shift or motion and find yourself misaligned, and Callahan's quarterbacks can hurt you. |
| PROGNOSIS |
Expectations are always sky-high in Husker Nation, but with the talent Callahan has brought to Lincoln, fans are definitely counting on marked improvement. But with the way the schedule sets up in 2007, they may have to settle for another small step, rather than a large leap back into the nation's elite. Barring an upset against #1 ranked USC in week in three (and that's not entirely unimaginable) the Huskers will start the year 2-1. They'll likely be 4-1 heading into a huge road battle at Missouri. That game will not only help decide the Big 12 North race, but could also set the tone for the rest of the season. Nebraska then gets two of its three Big 12 South foes at home in Oklahoma State and Texas A&M. Winning at Texas will be another challenge, for the Huskers who have struggled on the road during Callahan's tenure. Ultimately 10-2 is not out of the question, nor is 11-1 with some home-cooked magic against USC or a stolen victory in Austin. But anything less than a split in games Missouri and Texas could mean 9-3 and a second place finish in the Big 12 North. |
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
8-14-2007 @ 10:40AM
Blackshirt83 said...
Nice writeup, only thing I sorta question is the part about questionable play calling, the USC strategy made sense in that NU simply didn't have the depth or deep passer last year to get into a shootout with the Trojans, plus Pete Carroll was quoted as saying that what Nebraska did was probably the best game plan he's faced in three years.
Also the Texas game can't really be written up as the coaches fault either, the play call wasn't wrong as the play itself worked to achieve its purpose, get the first down.. the fact that Nunn fumbled couldn't have been predicted by anyone, including the coach and for what it's worth, say they did the sweep and it gets the first down and the HB fumbles, people would be calling the play call wrong because Texas had seen the play a few times already and were ready for it.
Criticizing a coach for not taking enough chances in one breath and than criticizing him for taking a chance or two in the next is trying to have your cake and eat it too and sometimes, it just doesn't work that way.
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