The dregs is a perfect phrase to describe those scrappy but unfortunate teams left at the bottom of the Big 12's 2007 liquid brew. We mean well when talking about these teams, but somebody's gotta finish last and we've come up with a few nominees.Count on these teams to either fall short of bowl eligibility or play in a less celebrated December bowl. Some pundits would consider tossing the entire Big 12 North division in here, but there's a way around that. Thus, a handful of teams that probably deserve to be mentioned here escape the strong pull of The Dregs' gravitational pull and orbit around a different celestial body: The Mediocre (published later today).
Oh, unhappy Plains State souls, let us deliver your eulogy in advance. The full and painful list in no particular order after the jump.
| Texas Tech Red Raiders |
 Last year: 8-5 overall, 4-4 Big 12WHY THEY'LL WIN: Because they can still outscore most of their peers. The Red Raiders will have a rare returning quarterback in talented junior Graham Harrell. Redshirt freshman receiver Michael Crabtree is getting buzz as potentially Texas Tech's best receiver yet. Tailback Shannon Woods is a first team all conference performer and will only get better assuming he gets out of coach Mike Leach's doghouse first. This team has some fight in it, beating Texas A&M on the road 31-27 last year and Oklahoma State 30-24 in the final week to secure bowl eligibility. They also set a record for biggest bowl comeback in college football history in beating Minnesota 44-41 last year. And in the "Things That Make You Go Hmm" department, Mike Leach's Red Raiders took Texas to the brink before Colt McCoy had one of those "The Leap" moments right in front of them, falling 35-31. WHY THEY WON'T: They're in the wrong division. The Big 12 South is particularly competitive this year as Texas, Oklahoma, Texas A&M and Oklahoma State all look to be much improved from last year. For all those gutty victories last year, turmoil rocked the Red Raiders' early season and led to strange defeats like a 12-3 loss to TCU and a 30-6 pounding at the hands of lowly Colorado. This team is bipolar until proven otherwise. PROGNOSIS: Texas Tech probably learned a few lessons from last year's disappointments and did end things on a high note with the bowl comeback, but that won't be enough. The Red Raiders must play hungry and improved versions of Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, Texas and Oklahoma as well as North division favorite Missouri. Layups against SMU, UTEP, Rice and Northwestern State help, but that still leaves at least two must-wins against Iowa State, Colorado and a roadie with Baylor just to sneak into a lower bowl. |
| Iowa State Cyclones |
 Last year: 4-8 overall, 1-7 Big 12WHY THEY'LL WIN: Because although they're considered the weakest link in a doughy soft Big 12 North, they're still in the Big 12 North. Wins can be had by a properly motivated and well coached team. New head coach Gene Chizik is an unknown as a head man although he's a noted star defensive coordinator (Texas fans might quibble with last year's below average output). If the players take to him there's something about a team believing in itself that sometimes make them play above true ability. But really I'm grasping here. The schedule has some winnable games against Kent State, Northern Iowa (scary last year!) and Toledo. The Cyclones also get to host rival Iowa and Ames is a sneaky challenging place to play. Bonus: it's throwback uniform night against Iowa. WHY THEY WON'T: Malaise. Longtime coach Dan McCarney dearly loved the program and was a decent coach, but he never got this program where its fans wanted it to be. A new attitude is needed but that doesn't happen overnight and new coaches tend to purge rosters in their first year. That leads to depleted depth, hard feelings and confusion. Such difficulty is exacerbated at schools like Iowa State with only modest winning tradition. There are some quality returning pieces like quarterback Bret Meyer and receiver Todd Blythe, but overall Iowa State brings back just 11 starters, amongst the lowest in the NCAA. PROGNOSIS: No bowls for you! I'm guessing coach Gene Chizik realizes this year is already a wash and will concentrate on the off-field stuff and hope that leads to winning down the road. There are opportunities to surprise like against rival Iowa and home games against Texas and Oklahoma who may be looking past the Cyclones the way Missouri did last year. Overall this is a tough year and there's not much to be done other than make a good showing each time out. By my rough estimate, I see this being a 3-4 win season, with one or two chances at a conference win. |
| Baylor Bears |
 Last year: 4-8 overall, 3-5 Big 12WHY THEY'LL WIN: Because they have to if coach Guy Morriss wants to 100% ensure he has a job here next year. Bucking convention, the Bears installed a Texas Tech styled offense last year. It is now year two for the scheme and a lot of last year's rough patches should be smoothed out. Two of their receivers can flat out fly in David Gettis and Thomas White. Also, there are three decent options at quarterback; one of them is bound to stick. Middle linebacker Joe Pawalek was second team all conference as just a freshman last year. Aaaaand I think this team has some fight in it. They got waxed last year by teams with big offenses like Texas, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech, but hang tough against more conventional foes. WHY THEY WON'T: The defense is still a sieve. Baylor allowed an average of 191 rush yards a game last year and a dismal 5 yards/carry. Three starters are back on the defensive line but that may not be a good thing. Overall the team returns just 11 starters, amongst the lowest in D-IA. Both quality corners from last year graduated, weakening the secondary a bit against an increasingly pass-happy Big 12. Finally, the running game is nothing to write home about. Last year's top rusher is gone and what remains is a complete unknown. PROGNOSIS: This one's fairly easy. Half the schedule is manageable, the other half (TCU, Texas A&M, Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech) is murder. Phil Steele is calling this a rebuilding year but I think the Bears have some quality pieces to at least compete against the manageable part of their schedule. That still means a season without a bowl trip, but I could see another outing like last year. With a little luck, Baylor could have gone from 4-8 to 7-5, so maybe the ball bounces their way this time around. |
| Colorado Buffaloes |
 Last year: 2-10 overall, 2-6 Big 12WHY THEY'LL WIN: Because Colorado can't stay down forever. As coach Dan Hawkins reminded everyone in the offseason, this is Division I football! The Zen-tastic, sky-diving coach is impatient for some wins and is going to drive this team to overachieve and not drop games to I-AA foes. Cody Hawkins is expected to take over at quarterback and he could be an important piece in rebuilding the Colorado franchise. Most of the skill talent returns on offense and two well regarded transfers should spice up the defense. For all his passing hype, Hawkins engineered a sneaky good rush attack last year as Colorado averaged 173 yards a game and 4.5 yards/carry on the ground with a dwarf named Hugh Charles in the backfield. WHY THEY WON'T: Schedule. Besides the conference slate, Colorado must travel to Arizona State in the September heat and then turn around and host Florida State the next weekend. The Buffaloes surprised a lot of people in hanging close on the road against Georgia last year, but this back-to-back could be demoralizing. The defensive roster looks improved but is still patchwork and there's not much in the way of depth. PROGNOSIS: The Buffaloes should improve their win total over last year and look much improved, but there are some rough spots in the schedule. If they can keep their heads on straight they could surprise and overachieve. Colorado was "in" most of their games last year but lacked enough offensive pop to close the deal several times. If the offense is improved, let's call it a six win season. |
| Kansas Jayhawks |
 Last year: 6-6 overall, 3-5 Big 12WHY THEY'LL WIN: Because coach Mark Mangino knows how to win here. A creampuff out-of-conference slate helps, but Magino's always found a way to two or three conference wins. The Jayhawks are tough at home and get seven home games this year. Cornerback/receiver Aqib Talib is a potential All American. The defense returns eight starters, most of whom are rapidly improving juniors and sophomores. The schedule is fairly light, and they already have the benefit of playing in the Big 12 North. WHY THEY WON'T: The offense could be pathetic this year. Quarterback Kerry Meier was adequate last year but he's still just a sophomore. Workhorse tailback Jon Cornish and his 1,500 yards are now graduated. The defense is still young. PROGNOSIS: Kansas State should open up 4-0, although they did lose to Toledo last year. Games against Baylor, Colorado, Kansas State and Iowa State are winnable. Games against Texas A&M, Nebraska, Oklahoma State and Missouri less so. The Jayhawks should flirt with a bowl bid, but they'll be right at that edge of five or six wins. |
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
8-10-2007 @ 11:53AM
william halvorsen said...
Im not interested in whether or not Kansas State starts 4-0.
Reply
8-10-2007 @ 9:04PM
Willie said...
Brian Grummell is either an idiot, or, what is somewhat similar, a sportswriter. The Colorado Buffaloes didn't "hang close" in their loss to Georgia last year. They dominated the game and got rooked out of an easy win by several controversial calls by the SEC officials in the game. Their defense was top-notch. (Hint: Brian, look at the defensive stats for the Big XII last year.)
As for his derogatory "ratings" of the Big XII North, do I need to remind him about Kansas State kicking the Longhorn's highly rated butts, and Nebraska coming within a whisker of kicking them again in the Big XII title game last year?
What I find most irritating about Brian's stupidity, is that he thinks it would be a daunting task for the Colorado Buffaloes to play a team like Arizona State that hasn't even come close to winning a NCAA football championship in the years since Colorado has won one, and come very close to winning others. Colorado vs. Arizona State? Get real punk!
Reply
8-10-2007 @ 10:23PM
Brian said...
""What I find most irritating about Brian's stupidity, is that he thinks it would be a daunting task for the Colorado Buffaloes to play a team like Arizona State that hasn't even come close to winning a NCAA football championship in the years since Colorado has won one""
http://select.nytimes.com/gst/abstract.html?res=F70A1EF934540C718CDDA80894DF494D81&n=Top%2fReference%2fTimes%20Topics%2fOrganizations%2fA%2fArizona%20State%20University
Ohio State defeats Arizona State, 20-17, to win Rose Bowl, ending previously unbeaten Arizona State's bid for national championship
Willie,
I watched that game against Georgia. The Buffaloes did a fantastic job but after dominating early, ran out of gas on offense and failed to make things happen in the red zone several times. After that, they hung on for dear life in the second half and to their credit, held off most of Georgia's advances until those final two touchdown drives.
As far as my Big 12 North ratings, there's a broad consensus that it's a weak division right now. As happens in football, in any given game teams can play up to or down to their competition. Such happened with Kansas State/Texas and Nebraska/Texas (a game Nebraska was clearly the superior team in).
However, there are enough games played over time to paint a broader picture than the fleeting and small sample of those two examples. As it is, the North lacks a dominant team that consistently wins and has the national-level talent and coaching you find at the moment at Texas and Oklahoma.
I'd love to see Colorado, Kansas State and Nebraska (and anyone else for that matter) doing well, competing for conference and national titles. It's good for the game and good for those schools. I'm not the one to be complaining to about their characterization, however. It's all there on the field and when I see it, I'll gladly acknowledge so.
Reply
8-19-2007 @ 5:09PM
K said...
Colorado will do much better this year. They will be a big surprise to everyone out their. Look at what has happened at BSU after 1-2 years with Coach Hawkins and his staff. HE has brought a great staff to Colorado as well. I feel that they will have a great year. GO BUFFS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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