NCAA Football

SEC Football Preview '07: Florida

Posted Aug 07, 2007 11:14AM By Ryan Ferguson (RSS feed)

Filed Under: Florida Football, SEC

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Like Brian Cook and his Wolverines, my Gators are the team that makes my heart pound wildly, my mouth fill with cottonballs and my legs tremble like a 'cisco aftershock. Keep a close eye on me, here; I'm an SEC first guy here at FanHouse and today, the Gators are just another team in the conference.

Just. Another. Team. Repeat. Just. Another. Team. *Cough* Okay, let's light this candle.

The FanHouse SEC blogger contingent believes that Florida is one of our four "contenders" in 2007. The other vaunted teams in that list include LSU, Tennessee, and Auburn. Speaking for Mr. Ferguson only, I think the Gators are either #2 or #3 in terms of "rank" in that list.

WHY THEY'LL WIN
Wide receiver: I'm not exaggerating when I say that the Gators might have the sickest wide receiver corps ever to suit up in Gainesville. It's no stretch to imagine that at least three of the Gators' WRs might be first round NFL draft picks: Percy Harvin, who now wears the #1 jersey, Cornelius Ingram, a TE/WR who became a possession receiver for Chris Leak in 2006, and Andre Caldwell, who runs a blistering 4.3 and can catch anything thrown near him. He's also great running out of the backfield on the reverse.

On top of that you have Louis Murphy, who had an outstanding spring game as Tim Tebow's favorite target, sophomore Jarred Fayson, who according to practice reports has made a huge forward leap and is as good a receiver as anyone else on the roster, Riley Cooper, who stood out on special teams last year, and hyped freshman recruit Deonte Thompson, who will probably see playing time in '07.

They all catch, they all run, they all block. Fayson even took snaps at QB in '06. Yeah, Urban Meyer likes to mix it up.

Prediction: every one of those guys will be playing in the NFL someday. Sure, Percy Harvin is a star among stars, but with such a deep and talented group of wide receivers, it'd be criminal if the ball didn't get distributed to all of them. And I expect it will.
WHY THEY'LL WIN... cont'd
Quarterback: Tim Tebow was selected (by me) as FanHouse's #2 SEC QB, which to be fair is giving Tebow a ton of credit without a start to his name. I can honestly say that based on what I've seen, I think Tebow will be a better overall quarterback than Chris Leak. He's already proven he's a better runner. I believe at the end of the day he'll be a better passer, too. And I think he will make 1st or 2nd-team All-SEC honors by the time the next coaches vote rolls around.

But if Tebow suffers an injury, all bets are off. Backing up Tebow are two true freshman, Cam Newton and John Brantley. Neither are expected to redshirt, and both are still competing, in theory, with Tim Tebow for the starting QB job. But there's really no comparison; Tebow, with a year of reserve SEC play and TDs in both the SEC and national championship games, is head and shoulders above his backups. At present, there's a huge drop-off from #1 to #2.

Offensive line: the Gators might have the best O-Line in the SEC in 2007. Only one starter drops out of the rotation -- center Steve Rissler has passed the torch on to Drew Miller, a 6' 6" 300 pounder who appears to be a natural at the position. The Gators' offensive line in 2006 was much improved from its '05 predecessor despite being younger and less experienced across the board. Expect them to be among the conference's best this season.

Rushin' attack: We're not going with "running back" here because yet again it appears as though Florida won't have a feature tailback to pound it out on the ground. Instead, Meyer will likely look to Kestahn Moore as his #1 guy in a committee of backs which will include Chevon Walker, who had a spectacular spring scrimmage, Chris Rainey, and select WRs (mainly Percy Harvin). The ground game won't be spectacular when considered from a traditional perspective, but it will be effective. And as is always the goal with Meyer and his offensive coaching staff, it will be balanced 50/50 with the passing game.

Coaching: Urban Meyer and his coaching staff are on top of the college football mountain in 2007. They've proven that they can take a soft but talented team and turn them into champions. Granted, Meyer wouldn't have won his national title without his star recruits, Tim Tebow and Percy Harvin. But now he'll attempt to defend the crystal with a roster which features less than a dozen "Zook" recruits. Frankly, it's hard to doubt the guy; Meyer is 22-4 in two years in Gainesville, has beaten all of the Gators' rivals twice, has never lost a game in the Swamp and of course now has SEC and National Championship rings on his fingers.

WHY THEY'LL LOSE

It's been well publicized that the Gators have lost almost their entire defense. All nine of those players are now in NFL training camps. Six were drafted -- three in the first round -- and the remaining three signed as free agents. Also gone to the NFL are veteran QB Chris Leak and RB DeShawn Wynn. Tebow has shown so much promise as a reserve freshman that the QB question does not appear to be causing much concern to the Florida coaching staff. And DeShawn Wynn was only a member of a running back committee, so his loss can likely be compensated for as well.

The question, of course, is the entire defensive squad. The Gators are thin at linebacker and cornerback. The defensive line will start true freshmen (although All-SEC DE Derrick Harvey will provide needed leadership to that unit) and the secondary features the only other returning starter, Tony Joiner at Strong Safety.

Marcus Manson is a former tailback who is projected to start as a cornerback. Brandon Spikes is by all accounts a stud at linebacker but he's unproven, and has huge shoes to fill since the 'other' Brandon (Siler) decided to forego his senior season for the NFL (an unwise decision in my opinion.) Dustin Doe has looked good in special teams play but is also inexperienced.

If you want reasons for why Florida could lose 2-3 games in 2007, look no further than the defense. Either this group will step up and prove their ability on the field, or they'll crumble, turning '07 into a rebuilding rather than reloading year for Urban Meyer. On the plus side, if this year's offensive squad is as good on the field as they look on paper, the heavy burden carried so frequently by last year's D will not be nearly so loathsome this time around. If Tebow and his skilled WRs can ring up plenty of points, the defense will have an opportunity to grow and improve without losing games.

HOW TO BEAT THEM

The popular thinking is this: to beat the '07 Gators you'll need to outscore them, expose their defensive weaknesses, exploit them, and field a good enough defense to get one or two more stops than they do. This year might be a return to the high-scoring Spurrier era, when the Visored One's teams flung the leather "all over the ballpark" and rarely bothered with such annoyances as field goals or stifling defense.

A popular strategy in college football is to find mismatches and wring them out to the point that a team loses one of its dimensions. To do so against the Gator offense will be very difficult; misdirection plays, trick plays, end-arounds and a balanced attack kept opponents off-guard in 2006. In '07, with Tim Tebow running the show, the option attack will be far more potent. You'll need to either load up the box to stop the option or stick like glue to Tebow's speedy receivers... and hope you guessed right.

HOW TO LOSE TO THEM
The easiest mistake to make, at least in the early part of the SEC schedule, will be to expect more runs from Tebow than he'll actually attempt. Make no mistake about it, this year Tim Tebow is an offensive manager and ball distributer first, and running back second. Last season, Tebow's appearance on the gridiron almost always indicated a run. This year he'll be passing, handing off, and running option plays. Tebow can make big things when he scrambles -- but that will be the exception rather than the rule.

Simply put, if you can't match up man to man with the Gators (and only a few teams will in 2007) you'll have to put enough pressure on Tebow to force a mistake. There are very few, if any, offensive weaknesses available to explore.

PROGNOSIS
I'm calling for the Gators to become SEC East Champions, lose to LSU for the second time in Atlanta, and go on to a January bowl game. A BCS bowl is also not out of the question.

I just don't see the Gators escaping the Tigers, but Florida does have a coaching and general toughness edge. Urban Meyer finds ways to win games, period. We haven't seen that grit from Miles yet; either he blows teams out of the water or struggles.

Season predictions:

DATE OPPONENT LOCATION PREDICTION
Sat Sep 1 Western Kentucky Gainesville, FL W
Sat Sep 8 Troy Gainesville, FL W
Sat Sep 15 Tennessee Gainesville, FL W
Sat Sep 22 at Ole Miss Oxford, MS W
Sat Sep 29 Auburn Gainesville, FL W
Sat Oct 6 at LSU Baton Rouge, LA L
Sat Oct 20 at Kentucky Lexington, KY W
Sat Oct 27 Georgia Jacksonville, FL W
Sat Nov 3 Vanderbilt (HC) Gainesville, FL W
Sat Nov 10 at South Carolina Columbia, SC L
Sat Nov 17 Florida Atlantic Gainesville, FL W
Sat Nov 24 Florida State Gainesville, FL W

Um, yeah. South Carolina?

Steve Spurrier has a serious fetish for beating his former team. He's 1-1 against Meyer and has outcoached Florida's coaching staff in both games.

Early prediction? Gators lose to the 'Cocks in Columbia. Hope to hell I'm wrong.

Tags: sec+football+preview, sec+preview, SecFootballPreview, secfootballpreview07, SecPreview

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