NCAA Football

Big Ten Football Preview '07: Wisconsin

Posted Aug 02, 2007 6:16PM By Bruce Ciskie (RSS feed)

Filed Under: Wisconsin Football, Big 10, Wisconsin

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On, Wisconsin? I guess you'd have to say they were in 2006, what with those 12 wins and all. Can they do it again in Bret Bielema's second year?

WHY THEY'LL WIN
This team is set up for a title run. The running game is strong on the shoulders of P.J. Hill, who will run behind an offensive line that returns four starters. Among them are underrated center Marcus Coleman and mauling guards Kraig Urbik and Andy Kemp. It's going to be another huge offensive line, with at least four starters listed at 300 pounds or bigger.

Top receivers Travis Beckum, Luke Swan, and Paul Hubbard are all back. Beckum came out of practically nowhere to lead the team in catches and yards in his first year as a tight end. Swan and Hubbard are former walk-ons who have come on as receivers while also serving as great blockers. Swan is more dependable, and Hubbard is the better athlete.

The defense will be led by end Matthew Shaughnessy, tackle Nick Hayden, linebackers Jonathan Casillas and DeAndre Levy, and cornerback Jack Ikegwuonu. That core of four great players is as good as any you'll find in the Big Ten. Casillas and Levy will more than make up for the loss of MLB Mark Zalewski, and Elijah Hodge, the new starter in the middle, won't exactly stink up the joint. Shaughnessy should have a big year, as he continues to add bulk to his 6-6 frame. He has gone from looking like a situational pass rusher to being an every-down player for the Badgers.

The kicking game could be among Wisconsin's best ever. Seniors Taylor Mehlhaff (kicker) and Ken DeBauche (punter) have both earned All-Big Ten honors in their career. Mehlhaff led the league in touchbacks last year, though he'll be challenged by the decision to move kickoffs back to the 30-yard-line.

WHY THEY'LL LOSE
Only two starters are gone on offense, but both were pretty important. Joe Thomas was an All-American and Outland Trophy winner. He was good enough to be a top five pick in the NFL Draft, and he'll probably anchor the Cleveland Browns line for years to come. That's not going to be replaced at the snap of a finger, and it's doubtful that sophomore Jake Bscherer (just pretend that there's an "e" after the "B") or redshirt freshman Gabe Carimi will do anything to make Badger fans forget Thomas.

The other missing offensive starter? Signal-caller John Stocco. It doesn't look like Stocco is heading for a big NFL career, since he couldn't catch on anywhere after the draft. However, he left his mark in Madison. Stocco ended up second on the school's all-time passing yardage list, and he was his own efficient self in 2006, hitting 59 percent of his throws with 17 TDs to just six picks. He probably would have passed Darrell Bevell on the career yards list if he hadn't missed two games with a bum shoulder. There is no clear-cut winner in the race to replace Stocco, as senior Tyler Donovan and transfer Allan Evridge will battle into fall camp. Donovan is the favorite, as he was solid in two starts last year.

Defensively, the biggest notable weakness is at safety, where both starters are new. Shane Carter should serve as the free safety, while sophomore Aubrey Pleasant takes over at strong safety. Carter takes over for Roderick Rogers, while Pleasant is replacing hard-hitting Joe Stellmacher.

HOW TO BEAT THEM
It's pretty simple for starters. You have to get a push on the interior of the offensive line. Hill isn't going to threaten anyone with his less-than-serious outside burst, and he needs some room to run to get his legs moving. If you can keep from getting pushed around by Coleman, Urbik, and Kemp, you will probably keep Hill bottled up.

Getting big plays on Wisconsin's defense will likely require that you attack the safeties. Stellmacher and Rogers will be tough to replace, in that they weren't known for blowing assignments or missing tackles. Carter and Pleasant are talented players (Carter is the brother of Cris Carter, so he also has bloodlines in his favor). However, neither of them are proven commodities. Fortunately for Wisconsin, they're on a defense that is full of proven commodities.

While it might sound simple, teams simply have to score when they have chances to. The Badgers had the best red-zone defense in the Big Ten last year, allowing scores on only 18 of 28 red-zone chances. The ten touchdowns they allowed were a league low. It's not like the defense didn't bend. It just didn't break that often, and it was a huge asset for the Badgers. Against a defense like this, touchdowns will not be easy to get.

HOW TO LOSE TO THEM
If you see a team covering Travis Beckum one-on-one with a linebacker, go ahead and turn the channel to a different game. It won't work, and while I'd rather Beckum had a huge season, I wouldn't advise this coverage technique. Beckum will eat that poor defender alive, and Wisconsin will exploit it until you find a way to stop it. Beckum might have fun if you use a safety on him one-on-one, but at least that will be more of a challenge.

It might not be a good idea to throw a football in the general direction of Jack Ikegwuonu. The Badgers' corner was first-team All-Big Ten last year, and he only had two interceptions for a reason. No one threw the ball that way. Instead, they threw the ball towards Allen Langford, which didn't exactly work wonders.

The passing game won't remind anyone of Texas Tech, but you can make it look pretty good if you aren't physical with Wisconsin's wideouts. Swan and Hubbard aren't burners, and Swan isn't very big. But both are willing and able blockers, and teams don't have an easy time bumping them off their routes. Swan has great hands and can catch the ball in traffic, while Hubbard's hands are improving. He's more of a threat because of his height. No matter what, you have to bump them and try to take them off their rhythm. If you don't, they'll make plays in the passing game, and they'll probably abuse you with their run-blocking when the time is right.

PROGNOSIS
Outside of the quarterback question and the hole at left tackle, there isn't much standing in the way of the Badgers and a national title run. The schedule sets up very nicely, with a reasonable but winnable opener against Washington State, winnable conference road dates with Illinois and Penn State, and a visit to Madison from mighty Michigan. A trip to Ohio State precedes the Michigan game, and the two games will determine whether Wisconsin has a shot at a BCS bowl.

Oh, and don't forget about that dangerous non-conference game at home against The Citadel.

The games at Penn State and Ohio State leave me thinking that this team isn't a strong candidate to go 12-0. However, an 11-1/7-1 season, which should be good enough to get Wisconsin into a BCS bowl this year, is certainly within reach. If the Badgers can show their quarterback situation won't nag at them past fall camp while also keeping their focus for 12 games, they are a legit Big Ten and national contender. The nightmare for Bielema is having to make a change under center, whether due to injury or performance.

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