Memo to NFL Teams: Avoid the Wolverines, Hokies and Tedford QB's

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So sayeth this guy.

An analysis of the NFL performance of three particular groups of college players suggests these groups are vastly overrated in the NFL draft and unlikely to succeed in the NFL. Those groups are Michigan skill position players, Virginia Tech defenders and Jeff Tedford coached quarterbacks.

The draft is light in such players this year, but just the same the evidence bodes poorly for guys like Michigan receiver Steve Breaston, Virginia Tech safety Aaron Rouse and combustible Cal quarterback Joe Ayoob.

Why is this so?

Call it the scheme/system factor. Sometimes there's a tradeoff for college success as a player who otherwise dominates on the college level in a particular system may not develop certain skills necessary for the NFL. This most affects the Virginia Tech defenders.

Beamer's secret isn't getting top talent and building the defense around the talent, Beamer and his coordinator have a scheme and go after the talent to fit that scheme. What is interesting is the constant of what kinds of players Beamer gets, and its usually undersized or oversized players for the NFL eyes, undersized DLmen (Engleberger and Adibi seems to be the only one close to the standard NFL size for a DE, but guys like Chamblee, Tapp and Jonathan Lewis seem to be the norm), over-sized Safeties (Rouse, Jimmy Williams and Willie Pile, but the CBs tend to be normal sized-but slow) and undersized Lbs (Moore, C. brown, Ken Brown).

As for the Michigan guys, their solid offensive line play over the years has apparently cursed everyone else involved in the Wolverine offense.

if a QB knows that he has that extra couple seconds to make his progressions, he gets used to it and when he hits the NFL, the speed of the pass rush caused him the most problems. The same problem in the passing game also applies to the WRs and TEs. If a receiver (either TE or WR) doesn't have to improvise as much (for example: knows that he can run his assigned route most of the time) and doesn't have to run hot routes as much, then the receiver doesn't develop the skills that they need in the NFL.

The Michigan line has also been the (NFL) bane of many a memorable Wolverine tailback.

with such a dependable Oline, the RBs did not develop needed skill sets because they had a great oline in front of them year after year. It might be as subtle as not having to learn to wait for the blocks to develop, or learning how to make use of the crease that is there

I wonder if Mike Hart can break the trend next year?

Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)

3-20-2007 @ 10:00PM

don said...

I guess the NFL teams disagree with your comments.
Why do NFL teams keep all those over-rated Wolverine QBs on their roosters year after year. Brady,Griese,
Navarre, Harbough(retired, etc.. The author must be from the SEC propoganda machine.

3-20-2007 @ 10:01PM

Seth said...

You are wrong for so many reasons. Sadly I have neither the time nor patience to tell you why. Next time you get the urge to write something, please, chop your hands off.

Thanks

3-20-2007 @ 10:02PM

Patrick said...

Tom Brady, DeAngelo Hall, Trent Dilfer.
Before you question Trent Dilfer's placement on that list, think of Dan Marino. Who's career ammounted to more? Marino put up the stats, but Dilfer won a title. No fan would prefer Marino, so Dilfer was a huge success at QB.
Why would you even mention Ayoob? There is no way he ends up being drafted, and is unlikely to be signed as a free-agent. He might be a great human being, but he was a lousy QB in a supposedly QB friendly system.
NFL Scouts have hoodwinked the media into excusing their ineptitude.

3-20-2007 @ 10:54PM

Fred Mueller said...

When Jeff Tedford first came to Cal, all we heard was what a great quarterback coach he had been. Everyone couldn't say enough good things about him. Far as I can tell, he hasn't changed the way he coaches quarterbacks, yet for some reason he suddenly became a BAD qb coach! Yep, I believe it was sometime just after he turned down a few offers to become an NFL coach. Were those offers he should not have refused? Appears to be so, from the way so many have done a 90-degree turn on his coaching abilities! Many, but not all. Not just Jeff Tedford has been taking a s--tload of flak, but so have his players, especially those who go on to the NFL. It's all pathetic, unfair and childish! Give it a break. Tedford is obviously a great coach and a great QUARTERBACK coach, as he is proving year after year. If his qb's can't make it in the NFL, that's the NFL's problem, not theirs or Tedford's! I seldom watch the overpaid, overhyped NFL anymore. College football is where it's at, and Cal football is going to show you all that it's for real! GO BEARS!!!

3-20-2007 @ 11:38PM

Derek said...

Does anbody know that the NCAA rules are for earning a letter in college football?

You cannot have a hard fast rule, and then have exceptions.
Blatantly ignoring outliers is foolish based on the sample sizes.
How many quarterbacks have success in the NFL? Can anyone seriously say that Tedford's do worse at a statistically significant rate. That more of his quarterbacks are in a position to be drafted is the sole reason for the numbers of failure.

3-21-2007 @ 2:35AM

Brian said...

No, I will not chop my hand off. What is this, Iran?

3-22-2007 @ 3:40AM

Sorry, that comment about chopping your hands off was a bit harsh. I just get sick and tired of all the talk about Tedfords QB�s failing in the pro�s. In actuality though, I think that just shows what a great coach Tedford is. He is able to take average talent and make them great in the college game. Look at all the other QB�s around the league that have been major busts from major programs. Why you would choose to single out Cal leaves me baffled. Please don�t chop your hands off, just think next time before you type. Say all you want about other programs, but leave Cal and coach T out of it. GO BEARS!

3-24-2007 @ 1:50AM

Jonnie B said...

Let me guess, you graduated from UVA? Can't beat Tech on the football field and try this crap. Our defensive coach is awesome and any great coach has a scheme, or a way to win, period. His defense is exciting and fun to watch..bottom line. He puts pressure on other teams and takes good talent and makes them greater players. What amazes me is how UVA players are drafted high but suck on the field. WHY? Coaching and the scheme. Why a good talent would decide to go there is beyond me. Hell, their fans eat asparagus and brie at tailgate parties and wear sun dresses and tie's to their football games! You mention QB's from Cal. Again, great offensive program, you bad mouth their QB's skills yet you try to replace a legend like Brett Farve in Green Bay! Michigan has excellent skill players but, again, if they are drafted by a team that under-utilizes their skills, its the NFL team's issue not the University's problem. Gee, last time I looked Tom Brady (Michigan)won a few important games in the Pro's and D Hall is an all Pro. Besides, these guy's are kids when they come to college at 17 to 18 and leave as young men. To assume that the reason the young man isn't great in the pro's because of the scheme at college when he is young tell's me your ignorance. Maybe its the lack of good coaching in the Pro's that can teach someone their method instead OR its the impatience by some to let a player learn due to the money that flow's in the NFL. Case in point, a young late round draft pick of about 9 years ago is still playing in the Pro's because he learned to adapt to a new scheme and perform and his name is Pierson Prileau- a safety that is a Virginia Tech Grad who learned under a great defensive coach who now coaches defense for the Redskins. But a player gets drafted by a team struggling and you blame the player? Maybe its an owner who keeps replacing coaches and upheaval abounds. Hard to be great when you have to take two steps back before you can take one step forward...