Like Auburn in 2004, Florida Is Likely Left On The Outside Looking In

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First things first. I no longer have a dog in this BCS hunt. My Auburn Tigers have been eliminated. With that said, I'm still hot over this BCS process. Just as Auburn was bent over in 2004, it appears likely that the winner of the Florida-Arkansas contest will face the same fate.

Many in the South believe that Arkansas is the best team in the conference and will win the SEC Championship on December 2nd. I don't share that feeling. I believe that Florida is a better team and will be even faster on artificial turf. Something tells me that Urban Meyer is a better big game coach. Time will tell.

Regardless of who wins, it appears that the winner will settle for the consolation prize, the bronze medal game if you will. The idea that a one loss SEC Champion will be left out is just as incredible as it was in 2004 when Auburn went undefeated.

Florida sits fourth in this week's BCS standings. Arkansas is sixth. With Michigan and Southern Cal ahead of them, its unlikely that the polls will reward Florida with a shot. If Arkansas wins, the chances are even less that the Razorbacks play for it.

What confuses me is why Michigan doesn't drop in the BCS. They trailed most of the game. They rallied to come back and fell short. Had they lost eight weeks ago to Ohio State, they would have dropped at least six spots. So much for the conventional wisdom that says you need to lose early to have a shot.

Southern Cal has squeaked by all season. Granted, championship teams find a way to win. I have no argument that USC has been the dominant college program for the past four years. But this year, I don't see it.

Similar to USC, Florida has found ways to win. It hasn't always been pretty, but again that's what championship teams do - they find ways to win. The Gators were beaten by a very good Auburn team at Jordan-Hare Stadium on a Saturday night. Would Michigan have fared any better? Regardless of how great the national media makes Michigan out to be, my guess is they would have gone down in Auburn.

As for Arkansas, well they beat Auburn. In fact, they've pretty much handled everyone on their schedule except for an opening night loss to USC in early September. With a new quarterback and new offensive coordinator, that was to be expected. College football teams evolve as the season goes on. Good ones get better (see Arkansas) and bad ones get worse (see Alabama).

Is Michigan better than Florida? Nobody knows. What we do know is that Ohio State is better than Michigan. Do we need it reaffirmed? Many are saying today that Chris Leak is no match for Ohio State. He may not be. But let's find out on the field and stop speculating.

Regardless of the outcome of the conference championship, an SEC team is going to be screwed over for the second time in three seasons. Isn't it ironic that the BCS commissioner this year is the SEC's Mike Slive.

Mike, your silence is deafening. Everyone in the conference is watching you. Your move.

Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)

11-21-2006 @ 1:47AM

Planet Killer said...

If USC, Michigan, and the SEC champ win out, I'm betting Michigan drops to #4 after the conference championships. Once everyone has a chance to evaluate the whole season I can't imagine there will be enough people still willing to say UM deserves a higher ranking than USC/SEC champ.

So the real question is whether UFA/ARK deserve the title shot ahead of USC. Arkansas, obviously, doesn't. First week of the season or not, they got rolled by USC and while they'd give USC a much better game now (it wouldn't surprise me if they beat them), short of USC losing there's no reasonable argument for Arkansas overtaking them.

I think deciding whose more deserving between USC and UFA is a coin flip. But USC will get the spot. I wouldn't be upset if UFA got the nod over USC, but I don't think USC is less deserving than UFA, either. They're pretty even, as I see it and if we had a playoff they could settle it on the field.

I think Florida is hurt by two things:

1) The down years by Georgia and FSU. It's bad luck for Florida, but they're just not going to get the credit for those wins they normally would get.

2) USC has better exposure. I'm not going to say UFA should've scheduled better (there's no need for them to add another tough game at all) but they should've scheduled smarter. They don't play a game this season against an opponent outside of SEC territory. All of their non-conference games (Southern Miss, Central Florida, W. Carolina, and FSU) are in SEC territory. USC, by contrast, scheduled three games against opponents from outside of the Pac-10 region - Arkansas, Nebraska, and Notre Dame, giving more regions a chance to see them. Think of how many more writers and coaches will get to see USC this season simply by breaking down tape or following along with their own conferences. Florida would be better served pumping Stanford than Southern Miss, or Temple than Central Florida, or Ball State than Western Carolina.

I think Florida and Arkansas belong in the same hat as Michigan, USC, Notre Dame, West Virginia, and Louisville. Put them in a hat, shake them up, and anyone can beat anyone on a given day. The problem for the SEC is the ridiculous BCS system that blocks a playoff, not that a majority of voters/computers think USC is slightly better.

Enjoyed the column.

-- Mark

11-21-2006 @ 8:29AM

tom said...

The problem we have here is the national champ system is really set up by the media. It's not really a voters or fans or school's system. Every poll voter watched Ohio State and Michigan, saw all the points scored, and just naturally figure these are the best two teams. I have allot of respect for the Big Ten but have a hard time imagining either Ohio State or Michigan going undefeated with an SEC schedule. But the media won't let that play. Instead, they hype, they promote, they manipulate all in the interest of setting up a big pay day at the end. Even Chris Fowler has eluded to that at times this year expressing his concern over how the location for College Gameday gets selected. Until fans vote with their wallet and the time they spend in front of the tube the system won't change.

11-21-2006 @ 1:39PM

hippstar said...

How many times does Auburn need to get blown out at home before you admit that they not "very good." Usually the SEC is a great conference, but it's not this year. Just admit it. Besides the usual dogs (Kentucky, Ole Miss, Miss State, Vanderbilt), Georgia is terrible, Alabama is terrible, South Carolina is terrible, and Tennessee looks like it's perfoming an Abbot & Costello routine every time it tries to throw a pass.

It would help if every SEC team didn't play Arkansas State, Tulane, and Louisiana-Monroe in their non-conference. And since USC thumped Arkansas, how else is a non-SEC guy to judge? Arkansas looks very good, but Florida could easily have three or four losses.

I think the SEC generally gets screwed, but not this year. It's ridiculous to essentially argue that the National Title game every year should be the winner of the SEC vs. someone else. The SEC isn't that good this year. And if SEC teams want more national respect, they should stop playing Deep South high school teams in the non-con. While Florida was breezing through Western Carolina the entire country was watching Michigan hang with Ohio State. Don't complain about the ramifications of that.

11-21-2006 @ 5:06PM

SECZIP said...

As Ricky Ricardo said"Splain how Auburn "not very good", and ranked 15th, but beat #3 Florida and # 9 LSU, .Maybe we can use the latest BCS theorist rankings???

11-21-2006 @ 10:05PM

Hudson said...

Hippstar, you don't know what you are talking about. Tennessee lost 3 games to 3 top 10 teams, 2 of them without their starting quarterback. 4 South Carolina losses were by 7 points or less, all to ranked SEC teams. Georgia is young and rebuilding with a freshman QB. Regardless, the conference still has 4 of the top 12 teams, and 9 of its 12 teams are bowl eligible, including one of their "usual dogs", a 7-4 Kentucky. Yeah, I guess the SEC is just not that good.

When you play a conference schedule loaded with good teams, someone's got to lose. A few teams will have a combination of skill and luck to reach the top with only one loss and THEN have to play the next best team in the conference Championship game. The others could still be damn good, and yet some days the luck isn't with them and a good team (UT, Auburn, LSU) ends up with a few losses. And some people will call them "not very good", while extolling the virtues of a team that romped through a conference filled with fuzzy bunnies, and give them all kinds of credit for playing one good out of conference opponent. To point out the few "rest games" the SEC takes with weaker OOC opponents (usually early in the season) while ignoring the brutal IN-conference schedule is ridiculous.

Speaking of OOC opponents, everyone likes to bring up USC beating a McFaddenless Arkansas in Week 1. How about Tennessee demolishing Cal? How about Vandy (Vandy!) keeping it tight with Michigan in the Big House. How about Auburn smoking a Washington State team that USC struggled to beat by 6? LSU beat Arizona 45-3, USC beat them 20-3. I guess LSU is that much better than USC, right?

Yeah, that SEC, they're just no good.

11-21-2006 @ 10:30PM

Thegr81 said...

(my reply to hippstar) you are right! florida could very easily have had 3 or 4 losses. realistically, they could have had 8 or 9 losses but the fact of the matter is they only have 1, just like usc, michigan, notre dame and a host of other schools! and how can you say the sec isnt good this year? its just as good as the mighty big 10, pac 10 or big east. good teams find ways to win. and i'm not knocking any of the other one loss teams (except notre dame) but florida/arkansas winner deserves a shot at ohio state just as well as usc or michigan, if not more.

11-22-2006 @ 7:23AM

Hippstar, you are right in that there is no elite team in the SEC this year, but there are a lot of good ones who belong on the same field with the "elite" teams of other conferences. I'm not saying the SEC teams deserve it more than those teams but they are certainly not less deserving, and should be getting a lot more respect than they do. I highly doubt the elite teams of the Big 10/ Pac 10 would have the records they do if they played in the SEC.

11-22-2006 @ 5:07PM

BUBBA said...

Unlike AU, UF has a loss...to AU!

11-22-2006 @ 6:14PM

Unlike Auburn, Florida has a loss...to AUBURN.

11-23-2006 @ 10:32PM

Bob said...

Like others have said, AU was undefeated in 2004. AU had one close game against LSU and named the score against the rest of the schedule.

UF has one loss already, looks weak in several games and the discussion will more than likely be moot since UF will lose at least one of its last two games

11-24-2006 @ 12:35AM

Josh said...

FLORDIA HAS A LOSS, AUBURN DID NOT. DO NOT EVER COMPARE THE TWO!!!! 2004 AUBURN WOULD DEMOLISH THE 2006 GATORS, WHO HAVE LOST TO AUBURN THIS YEAR!!!

11-24-2006 @ 11:55AM

Jim Samp said...

Interesting commentary. But what remains is that USC, Florida, Arkansas and Notre Dame have not even finished their seasons yet!! No one can make a case for Florida or any of the others when they have not even matched Michigan's season yet, which is a one-loss season. Florida and USC could both end up with three losses.

Regardless, the SEC is certainly not given a free pass into the title game. Florida has played three ranked opponents and none outside the SEC. Michigan has played a bit tougher schedule. According to the Sagarin ratings, Michigan's schedule is #12 in the nation, while Florida's is #29. Lots of credit to Michigan in the computer rankings as a result. USC's SOS is #3. That 50-14 win over possible SEC champion Arkansas goes a long way there.

Michigan has played three teams in the BCS top ten, winning two and losing only to #1 Ohio State. Florida has played only one, but beat LSU 23-10. But I'm still not seeing the strong argument for Florida here.

In 2004, Auburn played a bunch of directional schools outside the SEC and lost lots of points in the BCS as a result. That has been well-documented. When there are three unbeaten teams, there has to be a tie-breaker and strength of schedule is the best one I can think of. That's why no one is arguing strenuously to include one-loss Wisconsin in the BCS title game mix.

Anyway, should Florida win its last two games, it will gain SOS points. But USC still has Notre Dame to play, so that's at least equal to Arkansas on the Florida schedule.

Let's wait until Florida, USC, Notre Dame, etc. actually win their last few games. There is no real argument to make until then. Good luck to all.

11-26-2006 @ 8:53PM

Hey, I'm usually a SEC supporter up here in Big 12 Country (the Big 12 is REALLY bad) and I think Auburn got hosed a couple years ago, but this year I don't see it. I agree that a 1-loss Florida or Arkansas team has as good a claim to the title game as ND, USC, WV, and Louisville, but I don't get the argument that the SEC team is clearly more deserving.

Hudson: a whopping 6 wins gets you bowl eligiblity. After beating Arkansas State, Tulane, and Louisiana-Monroe, that leaves all of three wins to come up with in a conference that features Alabama, Kentucky (7-4 or not, Kentucky is terrible), Ole Miss, Miss State, Georgia (usually good, but terrible this year, and South Carolina (barely losing five games doesn't mean you're a good team).

Usually I'm sympathetic to the argument that the SEC is too tough to come through unscathed, but from the games I've seen this year, the SEC teams just aren't that good. The offense just isn't there this year.

I think the SEC is still better than every other conference, but an elite SEC team should be able to handle it this year. Unfortunately for the SEC, it has no truly elite team this year.

11-27-2006 @ 2:53PM

Phil Hayes said...

I'm still gaga at all this hype..Todays(27 Nov) BCS poll show one team played 40% of the top 5 and beat them both. Which team????? Why the # 11 ranked Auburn Tigers...still sitting and waiting for a # 8 ranking.

11-27-2006 @ 2:54PM

12-04-2006 @ 6:57PM

ERIC BLADES said...

First and foremost...WAR DAMN EAGLE!!!!!!!! As a proud member of the GATOR HATER NATION, Let me congratulate the boys from g-ville. If AU couldn't represent the sec in the national title game,hats off to UF for doing so. Finally the country will see just how good the SEC conf. really is. You will only hear this one time from me gator fans so listen up....GO GATORS...make the SEC proud. AU!!!!